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**Oldmangrouch** · 04-03-2007, 08:40 PM

OK, I need a reality check.

I am impressed with this kid. As I have said before, I can see him becoming one of the top 5 players in this draft class. I do agree that he is more of a "project"/risk than some other choices.

What puzzles me, is that pretty much every mock draft I look at has him as a late lotto pick. (I think the highest I have seen him is 9th)

Am I missing something? Am I the only one who thinks this kid could be something special?

For Three! Rip City! · 04-03-2007, 08:49 PM

I've been wondering the same thing. Point guard is usually a valuable commodity and the kid's stock should be soaring at this point. Perhaps there is a scout lurking around here that might point out his downside but right now I wouldn't blink an eye if he went top 5.

Ed O · 04-03-2007, 09:17 PM

He seems like a very good player and a good prospect, but I don't see him as a top 5 in this strong of a draft. Why not? Several reasons:

-- not a great shooter
-- I didn't see an ability to blow by people
-- doesn't seem to be a pure playmaker
-- not a big track record of success

He's a great athlete and a very good player... I don't mean to put him down, but instead to perhaps provide reasons why even though he's the best PG prospect in the game he's still not top 5ish.

Ed O.

**Oldmangrouch** · 04-03-2007, 10:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ed O

He seems like a very good player and a good prospect, but I don't see him as a top 5 in this strong of a draft. Why not? Several reasons:

-- not a great shooter
-- I didn't see an ability to blow by people
-- doesn't seem to be a pure playmaker
-- not a big track record of success

He's a great athlete and a very good player... I don't mean to put him down, but instead to perhaps provide reasons why even though he's the best PG prospect in the game he's still not top 5ish.

Ed O.

Valid points. There are a number of weaknesses in Conley's game that need to be addressed. At best, he will take longer to reach his potential than some of the other kids in this draft. My rejoinder is this:

For all the hype about this draft, no one who is going to be picked from #3 on is free of warts. To be blunt, I see a number of potential lotto picks who are destined to be valuable role-players.

Conley may be a higher risk than someone like Brewer or Green or Noah....but he is also higher reward.

ZBoFanatic · 04-03-2007, 10:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ed O

He seems like a very good player and a good prospect, but I don't see him as a top 5 in this strong of a draft. Why not? Several reasons:

-- not a great shooter
-- I didn't see an ability to blow by people
-- doesn't seem to be a pure playmaker
-- not a big track record of success

He's a great athlete and a very good player... I don't mean to put him down, but instead to perhaps provide reasons why even though he's the best PG prospect in the game he's still not top 5ish.

Ed O.

I agree he isn't a great shooter, but he's not bad.

Hmm, I thought he had a tremendous ability to blow by people. He changes speed better than most pro point guards too and penetrated a very good Florida defense a number of times.

I think he's an incredible playmaker. He always got the ball to the right guy on the break. Number 1 assist to TO ratio in the big ten as a froshy is ridiculous. (off subject but #1 in steals too).

I think winning 3 straight state championships including #1 team in the nation as a senior in high school then leading a team to the national championship as a freshman the next year is a tremendous track record of success. Don't you think?

c_note · 04-03-2007, 10:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ZBoFanatic

I agree he isn't a great shooter, but he's not bad.

Hmm, I thought he had a tremendous ability to blow by people. He changes speed better than most pro point guards too and penetrated a very good Florida defense a number of times.

I think he's an incredible playmaker. He always got the ball to the right guy on the break. Number 1 assist to TO ratio in the big ten as a froshy is ridiculous. (off subject but #1 in steals too).

I think winning 3 straight state championships including #1 team in the nation as a senior in high school then leading a team to the national championship as a freshman the next year is a tremendous track record of success. Don't you think?

I 2nd all of this. He's not that big, however, and if he could get a jump shot he might do good in the NBA.

ZBoFanatic · 04-03-2007, 10:49 PM

I think the main reason he's not higher in mock drafts is because of Oden's shadow. He definitely made a name for himself this year though with Oden being hurt so much during the regular season and the foul trouble in the tourney. They will both be very good NBA players I think.

**Minstrel** · 04-03-2007, 10:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ed O

He seems like a very good player and a good prospect, but I don't see him as a top 5 in this strong of a draft. Why not? Several reasons:

-- I didn't see an ability to blow by people

Odd that this should be one of your reasons. During the tourney, it seemed that he was doing this constantly, which is why Ohio State kept winning (Oden generally sat out most of the first half and some of the second with foul troubles). Teams began rolling their defenses towards him to prevent him from going past his man and slashing to the hoop.

To me, he reminds me of Jay Williams at Duke. I have the same reservation about Conley Jr. as I did about Williams, regarding his NBA future...his small size. If he were a 6'5'' or 6'6'' player doing what he was doing, I'd consider him a tremendous prospect. At 6'1'', I worry that he'll end up like Damon Stoudamire. Small players have a smaller chance of success. Even Iverson, a small player success story, has struggled to keep his efficiency as high as his taller fellow elite scorers.

And Conley Jr. definitely does not have Iverson ability, IMO.

LameR · 04-04-2007, 12:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ed O

-- not a great shooter
-- I didn't see an ability to blow by people
-- doesn't seem to be a pure playmaker
-- not a big track record of success

Ed O.

He shoots 51%, although only 30% from 3.

He's one of the quicker guards in the country.

He's got great vision.

I thought he won multiple state titles in HS, so I looked it up. He won 3 state championships in HS, and his overall record while there was 103-7. That, plus taking his team to the title game seems like a decent amount of success to me. Don't know how much more you could really ask for.

http://ohiostatebuckeyes.cstv.com/sp...r._mike01.html

Ed O · 04-04-2007, 12:58 AM

Conley winning state championships is meaningless... the guy had Greg Oden on his team.

I will concede that maybe I overstated his inability (or understated his ability) to beat people off the dribble... I watched about a half-dozen games before the tournament and his quickness just never impressed me.

So, to the people who picked apart my explanations: why isn't he rated in the top 5?

Ed O.

LameR · 04-04-2007, 01:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ed O

Conley winning state championships is meaningless... the guy had Greg Oden on his team.

I will concede that maybe I overstated his inability (or understated his ability) to beat people off the dribble... I watched about a half-dozen games before the tournament and his quickness just never impressed me.

So, to the people who picked apart my explanations: why isn't he rated in the top 5?

Ed O.

Well, Oden and Durant obviously take the top two spots. That leaves three spots for Wright, Horford, Brewer, some people may still think Noah, Hibbert, Green, Yi Jianlian, and Conley. I don't know if I'd have him top 5, but I'd definitely have him in the mix.

I thought of a couple of reasons he may be underrated. It's already been mentioned he's been in Oden's shadow. When you have two freshmen as good as Oden and Durant, it's hard for another freshman, especially one that's a teammate of the other two to get a lot of attention.

The only other thing I can think of is inexperience. I don't mean inexperience in basketball, but not experiencing as much exposure because he's only played one year. The fact that he's a freshman means people haven't had as many chances to see him play as say Deron Williams or Chris Paul before they came out after three or four years.

**Oldmangrouch** · 04-04-2007, 01:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ed O

So, to the people who picked apart my explanations: why isn't he rated in the top 5?

Ed O.

Isn't that what I asked at the begining?

I think some of the points raised here are on target.

He has a good FG%, but hasn't shown 3 pt range.

He is quick enough (and has a knack for drawing fouls), but he may not have the kind of jaw-dropping speed that really catches your eye.

Size is always going to be an issue.

For a kid just 1 year out of high school, he shows real promise as a play-maker.......which is a polite way of saying he isn't *yet* an elite PG. He is going to have to convince people he has the BB IQ and the work ethic to make the next step.

**Oldmangrouch** · 04-04-2007, 02:06 AM

BTW, just to give this a practical perspective......

Draft Express has the Blazers taking Brewer at #7 - with Yi Jianlian at #8 and Conley at #9.

NBAdraft.net has Portland taking Green at #7 - with Brewer #8, Hibbert #9, and Conley falling to #12.

I confess my ignorance about Jianlian.....I really don't know what to think of the guy, though some "experts" seem to believe he has a high ceiling. Brewer, Green, and Hibbert all strike me as valuable role-players - but not future stars.

IF Conley comes out, and IF his ceiling is as high as some of us believe - passing on him for some of these other guys seems like an excessive case of risk avoidance.

Just my grumpy

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