rx2web

Again the reason that I didn't include Milwaukee was that according to the criteria that I was going by, a team will beat a team lower then them in the standings, Milwaukee had virtually no games or none against the two teams below them. If I were weighting the numbers against, playoff vss non-playoff teams that might be different.

Schilly

You are quite right, I was lumping 1-3 without lumping 4-7. Your odds are higher of moving down than up, though your odds are higher of moving up than staying at #4.

rx2web

i'm not as confident about our odds in these last 9 games. We are currently without 2 of our best(read: stat providing) players in Randolph and LaMarcus. The bulk of our games are against Playoff or playoff fighting teams. Only the Seattle game is really our best chance to win. And the last two times that we played them they just chewed us up with their energy. After all the losses I'm not convinced we will be able to match them.

I should state that I would LOVE it as a fan if Portland got themselves another 1, 2 or 9 wins the rest of the season. That would make me fierce proud. But I'm also realistic, that's probably just not going to happen.

GOD

I don't know about the likelyhood of getting the 4th pick, but it sure seems possible. But the way I see it is there is a drop off of talent after the fourth pick so I would love that. The top two spots are surefire superstar players in Oden and Durant. The next two spots are near surefire all stars in Horford and Wright. And what's best, is that if we pick the BPA at any of the top four spots, we will also be picking a position of need. We better get a good pick this year, because I don't see us in the lotto next year (thank god).

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RedHot&Rolling

I agree with you about sure-fire superstars Oden and Durant. I don't see it for Wright or Horford, although I think they become good, really good players of starting quality in a few years. But, I don't see them becoming best at their position type guys.

I also agree that this is our (most likely) last chance for a high Lottery Pick for the foreseeable future. We're getting too good!!

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BIG Q

I understand the methodology, but Mil has two games with Bos, which would give them 27 wins as Boston will not beat them on purpose. For rooting purposes, I would be rooting for both Boston and Atlanta to lose all four games to Milwaukee. ATL, Char, Phi and Sea will all get an extra win without having to beat Mil. I think it will be very close.

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Verro

Milwaukee is in EXTREME tank mode, they probably won't win another game.

But we could definitely finish with the 4th worst record.

ProudBFan

In any event, at this point our chances at landing the #1 or #2 pick depend on a lucky bounce of the ping-pong balls. I don't really see any incentive there for the Blazers to tank.

Think about it: Even if Zach and LaMarcus *could* play, how many games would we likely win from here on out? 3? 4? Losing out (not picking up those 3 or 4 wins) doesn't improve our chances at either of the top two picks significantly over winning those 3 or 4 games. Again, no real incentive for the Blazers to tank.

PBF

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JuniorNoboa

If you have the fourth worst record, the most likely scenario is that you get the fifth pick in the draft.

dudleysghost

Au contraire. Those 3 or 4 games would very likely mean the difference between haivng the 4th or 5th seed in the lotto and the 7th - 9th seed.

The difference is about a 15-20% chance at getting Oden or Durant. That's pretty significant. Even if we don't luck out in the lotto, it gives us a better pick. That's 2-4 fewer teams picking their favorite players ahead of us. Whatever player available we'd like to pick if we have the 4th or 5th pick, it's likely that some other team picking 5th-8th also likes that same player.

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Ed O

I know people have showed some numbers in another thread, but that's not accurate.

Even three games could mean the difference between the 4th- and 8th- or 9th-worst record (or even lower). And those odds are significantly different for both getting into the top 2 and higher overall. The 4th-worst record has a 11.9% chance for getting the top pick while the 9th spot has a 1.7% chance, for example, and there's a similar jump in the case of the second pick.

Ed O.

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"In the end, it all comes down to talent. You can talk all you want about intangibles, I just don't know what that means. Talent makes winners, not intangibles. Can nice guys win? Sure, nice guys can win -- if they're nice guys with a lot of talent. Nice guys with a little talent finish fourth, and nice guys with no talent finish last."

-- Sandy Koufax

Masbee

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