blazers2285

I question whether with all the injuies we will win a game for the rest of the season barring this is it possible for atlanta and charlot to move ahead of us in the draft. This would give us the forth pick. I think having the forth pick would give us a great a chance of at least getting oden,durant, or wright. I think we take one of the three no matter what and maybe do some dealig if we get wright becaue he reminds me of aldredge a lot. I hope to god that LA is healthy becasue he is a hugh conerstone for our franchise. Heres to the blazers not winning another gmae just getting cloes and losing by a little. I don't want to lose I never would but this is a chance to add the final piece we need. I think we will get the forth or fifth pick. Go Altanta and charlot!!

hasoos

Sure we could end up with the FOURTH pick.... That wouldn't be too bad, but IMO many of the guys who go 2 through 8 might be over rated big guys...I would rather trade down and pick up a guard or SF who is actually going to be worth a damn.

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Hasoos

JuniorNoboa

The fourth pick is hard to get unless you have one of the three worst records. The fourth pick usually falls to the worst team that got jobbed in the lottery, and the lotter never goes 1-2-3. You have more chance of getting one of 1-2-3, then the #4 slot.

And say you get the 4 pick - how does it allow you to get one of the top players?

ThatBlazerGuy

Personally, I feel getting a top 4 pick would be amazing because I rank Al Horford right up there with Brandan Wright.

ebott

I think it's entirely possible for us to end up with the 4th worst record.

Almost every team we play for the rest of the season is either a playoff team or contending for the playoffs. These are the teams that are really trying to play well and get geared up for the playoffs. It wouldn't surprise me at all if we didn't win a single game for the rest of the season.

Atlanta and Charlotte have a lot of winnable games down the stretch. I don't think it's likely they'll both win enough to drop behind us in the great ping pong ball race. But it's certainly possible.

BIG Q

Portland is more than in the running for at least a tie for the third spot in the lottery. Atlanta with 27 wins and Milwaukee with 25 wins both have a very good chance of getting to 29 wins and tied with Portland. In fact, seven of Milwaukee's nine games are against lotto teams. They have two against Boston, who will not win at any cost. They also have two games against Atlanta so it will be very interesting. Portland will not win another game unless Seattle tanks against us.

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rx2web

Look out! I did some number crunching. In looking at the current rankings as of this morning, the teams remaining schedule I believe that Portland will be in the #4 spot. here's what I did.

* I grabbed the bottom 8 teams, basically anyone with 30 wins or less.
* I counted the number of games remaining for each team.
* I scored their remaining schedule according to this criteria:

* If they play a team that is above them in the rankings they win.
* If they play a team with a lower record they lose.

* I clumped #1,2,3 together and didn't include them in the rankings and left them where they are currently ranked as using the criteria listed above, they wouldn't win any more games.
* I added up the numbers of wins and losses for each team and got an estimated final standings.

Now I know that this isn't perfect. It's far from it in fact. This is the NBA and anything can happen on any given night with various teams. A bad team can beat a good one etc. So this is just a guess based on the closest statistical information that I can justify using.

Here we go...the numbers: (items in Bold are wins)

Atlanta
Current Rank: #4
Record: 27-47
Games Remaining: 8
Opponents: NJ, MIL, PHL, BOS, WAS, CLE, MIL, IND
Projected Record: 30-52

Charlotte
Current Rank: #5
Record: 29-46
Games Remaining: 7
Opponents: WAS, IND, MIA, MIA, CHI, MIL, NY
Projected Record: 30-52

Philadelphia
Current Rank: #6 (tie)
Record: 29-44
Games Remaining: 9
Opponents: NY, TOR, ATL, IND, BOS, ORL, DET, CLE, TOR
Projected Record: 31-51

Portland
Current Rank: #6 (tie)
Record: 29-44
Games Remaining: 9
Opponents: UTA, HOU, DAL, SA, HOU, LAC, SEA, UTA, GS
Projected Record: 29-53

Seattle
Current Rank: #7
Record: 30-44
Games Remaining: 8
Opponents: NOK, LAL, UTA, HOU, PHO, POR, LAL, DAL
Projected Record: 31-51

So the bottom 8 look like this:

1. Memphis
2. Boston
3. Milwaulkee
4. Portland
5. Atlanta
6. Charlotte
7. Philadelphia
8. Seattle

So that gives Portland nearly a 12% chance of the #1 Spot. Because of the ties in record of ATL and CHA and PHI and SEA...the averaging of their ping pong balls actually helps Portland (I believe)

BIG Q

Overall your post is good, but you should have included Milwaukee as well. Seven of their nine games are against lotto teams. They have two games each against BOS and ATL. Both those teams look to be in full tank mode. Milwaukee can easily get to 29/30 wins just based off of the other teams tanking as much as them. There could be a 2 or 3 way tie for the third picks ping pong balls!

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BRANDON
ROOKIE
OF THE
YEAR

Schilly

careful you don't want to offend anyone, LOL.

Just some fun Numbers. If you have the 4th worst record and there is no tie here's how your odds break down.

#1 11.9%
#2 12.6%

Top 2 24.5%

#3 13.3%

Top 3 37.8%

#4 10%
#5 35%
#6 16%
#7 1.3%

Your best odds are of being a top 3 pick from the #4 slot.

crowTrobot

by salivating so much you guys are pretty much guaranteeing that we play inspired & beat at least one of the texas teams/jazz, beat seattle because they out-tank us, and finish no better than 6-7.

blazerboy30

Ummmmmm, no. Your best odds are NOT being a top 3 pick. Your best odds are being 4 or higher. Actually, your odds of getting the #4 or higher are almost twice as high as getting a top 3 pick.....according to your numbers.

Luckily, from the #4 spot, you're more likely to get a top 3 pick than to get a pick higher than #5.

LameR

Maybe I misunderstood your post, but why does Philly hop from 29 wins to 31 if you only have 1 team bolded for them?

Portland's schedule may look hard, but odds are decent that they win at least a game or two. Seattle and Golden State look the most winnable.

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dudleysghost

The problem is that Milwaukee plays ATL twice and Charlotte once, and only one team can win each of those games. Since Milwaukee is a full four wins behind us, I'm just rooting for them to lose out and add wins for ATL and CHA, giving us a better shot at the #4 pick. Getting a tie for #3 is pretty unlikely, but #4 is entirely possible.

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Jeff Van Gundy to the Houston Chronicle: "Everybody gets excited about youth except the coach, because he knows youth means mistakes, mistakes mean losses, losses means you're fired."

Blazer Ringbearer

Scenario that I'm dreading...

- Portland finishes out the year with the 4th or 5th worst record.
- Portland lucks into the #1 overall pick.
- Oden, Durant and Wright all opt to stay in school.