mook

if we didn't already have Oden, Aldridge, Roy and Rodriguez sewn up, I might be more interested in a riskier player like him.

the thing is we've already had our grand slam. we need to get out of the mindset of a bad lotto team. no more swinging for the fences. if we trade Randolph, it's got to be for a proven veteran or a mature draft pick where there's a very high likelihood that he will contribute immediately.

we're already back in the playoffs this coming year. what we do with our tradeable assets (Randolph, Jack, 4 second rounders, Webster) will determine if we are a first round flameout or a serious player in the second round.

wizmentor

I totally agree. But this Sounds like Ime Udoka to me, which some on this board don't seem to like. It also sounds a bit like Corey Brewer. But, your point may have been that it does not sound like Mike Conley.

mook

it does sound like Udoka.

I don't think anyone disagrees that we need a Udoka-type on our team. it's just we want that guy to be more talented, more athletic and preferably younger.

Boob-No-More

The Telfair comparison is asinine. Totally different players. About the only thing they have in common is they are young PGs. Telfair never was, and never will be, a pass-first PG. He's the leading scorer in NYC high school basketball history. He always looks for his shot first. If that's not there, he looks to make a flashy highlight reel pass which more often than not ends up in the crowd.

I like to use the ratio of FGA/Assists as a measure of shoot-first vs. pass-first when characterizing PGs. A ratio greater than 2.00 FGA/A is serious ball hog territory for a PG. Telfair's NBA FGA/A = 2.15. No surprise there. This year at Ohio State, Mike Conley Jr. had a FGA/A = 1.29. Not quote Stocktonesque, but for comparison Steve Nash's career FGA/A in the NBA = 1.38 and Jason Kidd's FGA/A = 1.40. Also, Conley the freshman averaged 6.1 APG. In Nash's four year college career, he only topped that number once, averaging 6.4 APG as a junior - and Conley did it in a tougher conference against much tougher competition. I'm not saying Conley Jr. will be better than Steve Nash, just pointing he's a true pass first PG that looks to set up his teammates over getting his own shot.

Conley Jr. is also an excellent defender. He averaged as many steals per game (2.2) as TOs. Something Telfair doesn't even dream about. And while Conley is short for a PG (he's still taller than Telfair), he's an incredible athlete (40.5 vertical jump, trailing only Al Thornton and Bobby Brown at 41") with very long arms for his size (6'5.75" wing span - longer than Javaris Crittenton). He'll be a much better defender than Telfair (which isn't saying much). Defense will be a strength for Conley Jr., not a weakness.

Does this mean he's right for the Blazers? Not necessarily. I know there's a lot of love here for Sergio, but he's a weak defender, and like Conley Jr. has an inconsistent outside shot. I do think Conley Jr. will be at least an above average NBA PG and probably develop into a very good one - if he improves his outside shooting. He has all the other tools, quickness, athleticism, pass-first mentality, proven winner at all levels (AAU, high school and college), etc.

Still, I agree a SF should be our highest priority (after Oden). If we can get TWO more lottery picks, I'd be happy to use the SECOND additional pick (11 - 14 range) on Conley Jr. after taking a top SF in the 5-9 range.

BNM

Masbee

Shane Battier?

mook

On the continuum of spot up three point shooters/glue guys/defensive specialist small forwards, I see it like this:

Khryapa ---> Udoka ---> Battier ---> Bruce Bowen ---> Corey Brewer ---> Tayshaun Prince ---> Shawn Marion

I'm not really sure about where to stick Brewer.

I'd be happy to have any of them above Udoka (although Bowen isn't likely for sale), depending on what it cost us.

I'd take Battier for some combination of Webster, Jack and our second rounders.

I'd give up Randolph for Brewer or Prince.

I'd give up everything but Aldridge/Oden/Roy/Rodriguez for Marion.

I really want to see us target somebody better than Udoka this offseason for that role.

Masbee

I actually think that Battier might be a better "fit" than some of the more talented guys you list.

Hear me out: With Aldridge and Oden down low a defender that is most comfortable checking the opposition's best 2 or 3 (Battier & Bowen & Brewer) is a higher need than a defender that covers 3s or 4s (Prince, Marion).

Having a deadly 3 pt shot, is going to help our team as much or more than a guy that scores in double digits in a variety of ways. It is the threat that is important to keep the opposition from packing the middle:

Battier: 39% career, 42% last season
Bowen: 39% career, 38% last season
Prince: 36% career, 38% last season
Marion: 34% career, 32% last season

Battier at 137 had more made threes last season out of these guys and shot the highest percentage. He fits the profile. Bowen is a good 3pt shooter. Prince is coming off his best 3pt shooting, so isn't as proven yet. 36% will not cut it. Marion is not a good 3pt shooter. Doesn't meet this need.

Bowen is 35, so is not a consideration.

Prince is 26 which is perfect. Battier and Marion are 28. A little old, but ok.

Marion is on a MAX deal and would be very costly to obtain. All in all, I would love to have Marion the guy with by far the most talent, but with his contract, whining about shots (which I totally understand), bad 3pt shooting, and not defending the 2s (Kobe, etc.) unless he could be had for "cheap" I don't think this is the best move.

Prince is better than Battier, but I think I see a smaller difference than many. And areas he is better are not needed by the Blazers.

He rebounds more than Battier. Will we need that with Aldridge and Oden? I don't think so. He is more involved in the offense and draws more fouls and free throws than Battier. Will we need that with Sergio, Roy, Aldridge and Oden? I don't think so.

I like that Prince plays defense, and he is pretty good. But I also think he is overrated getting a lot of credit for the solid TEAM defense that the Pistons have, and coasting on the rep he earned his first couple seasons when he was better (worked harder). I think Battier is a better defender.

Prince is considered a core piece of the Pistons and would cost a lot obtain and cost a lot to re-up. Battier not.

Brewer (or one of the other SF draft picks) is a rookie. McMillan doesn't want to play a rookie. So they are not really an option in this discussion until they prove they can play.

If you agree with the comments about Battier and think we could obtain Battier for multiple redundant players (if Blake is brought back Jack could go, Webster is slow to develop) and Houston does it because they need depth and a PG, I think that is the best "deal" for the Blazers. Battier might not be sexy or as exciting, but I think on the floor he could be almost as worthwhile as those other guys as the fit is so good.

That leave us with Zach, who could be traded for a pick to draft our SF of the future, be it Brewer or whoever. If they pan out, they move Battier to the bench.

Oldmangrouch

I'm shocked people are so negative about Conley. The kid may not be a superstar, but it is highly unlikely he will follow the Telfair career path either.

The real irony, is that many people who wouldn't touch Conley, are hot about Crittendon. He is less polished than Conley, and right now isn't half the player Conley is.

I know......he's *so tall*!

Conley is a victim of reverse psychology. A few fools over-rated him (Conley to the Hawks at #3!), so now everyone else is under-rating him. If Conley falls out of the top 10, he will be a steal.

__________________
We enter this life naked, wet, and hungry - and it only gets worse!

Masbee

I have no idea what is going on with the Blazers, Houston and other teams, and this is complete fantasy, but:

Let's say we trade Jack and Webster for Battier; somehow trade Zach for filler and the pick that gets us Brewer; sign Blake; and of course draft Oden. This is the lineup next season:

Blake/Sergio
Roy/Jones
Battier/Brewer
Aldridge/Outlaw
Oden/Pryzbilla

mook

I'm not sure I really agree with you about Brewer not playing as a rookie under McMillan. Brandon Roy got all the minutes he could handle as a rook. Jack was handed the starting PG role in only his second year. if Brewer significantly out-plays Udoka immediately (which I'd hope he could), then I don't see McMillan benching him in favor of Ime. at least not for long.

otherwise, though, I think you've done a pretty good job of convincing me that Battier may be the best fit, provided the price is right.

I wonder if Houston would give him us for so little, though. they gave up the #8 pick for him just a year ago.

Boob-No-More

Yeah, there were posters gushing here about how they just love TALL PGs and we should trade Jack to ATL for the 11th and grab Crittenton - until I pointed out he's a whopping half inch taller than Jack with a 2" shorter wingspan and a 2" shorter standing reach - in all, he's actually SMALLER than the PG we already have who has two years of NBA experience (one as a full time starter) under his belt.

Bingo! It's backlash over the some projecting Conley Jr. way too high - or misinterpreting Oden's "demand" to have the team that drafts him also acquire Conley Jr. (we know that's not true, but the perception exists). Conley will definitely be a very solid pass first PG with good defense - if he improves his outside shot, he could be an excellent overall player at the NBA level. Again, picking him at 10 - 14 would be very appropriate - MUCH more appropriate than taking Telfair at 13.

BNM

Masbee

I don't know if they would. But Jack and Webster isn't a crap offer. A rare PG that doesn't suck and a former #6 pick. We only do it because we don't think Webster has a good shot of being a 20ppg scorer and because we would have the opportunity to replace Jack with Blake. If not, we don't make that deal.

Another way of looking at the Battier - Prince - Marion issue is this:

To obtain Prince or Marion would require Zach to be a part of that deal. To obtain Battier, not. So the Blazers MIGHT be able to make a run at Prince or Marion, or they might be able to trade for Battier AND trade for another lotto pick.

Battier AND Rookie
Blake and no Webster

or

Prince (or Marion)
Jack and Webster

Hard choice. I am not so sure the top choice isn't all that worse now and in the future. Additionally, I think it might be our only real choice. I think the odds of us being able to work a trade for Marion or to pry Prince from Detroit are very very low. Whereas trading for Battier and working a deal of Zach for a pick are much more likely.

Boob-No-More

Exactly what "tools" do you find him lacking?

BNM

2k