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Old 06-23-2007, 02:53 PM   #1 (permalink)
mook
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Things our GM should not think about when deciding Oden vs Durant

I've seen in countless threads people mention:
X fits better with Aldridge
Y fits better with Roy
X is more of a "Nate" player
Y fits better with Randolph
Y seems to fit our team concept better
X is going to gel with Sergio in a few years
Y is more marketable
X will love Portland more

every time I read this, I can't help shaking my head and wondering if the poster understands the concept of Best Player Available.

you don't worry about if Nate can coach the player, because odds are that Nate will be gone long before either guy reaches his peak. I like Nate, but I don't see him as the next Jerry Sloan/Greg Popovich/Phil Jackson, who has permanent employ partially based on his ability to ride superstars. I could be wrong, but the odds are against it.

you don't worry much about the fit with Aldridge/Roy/Rodriguez/Randolph, because if one of them doesn't work, you trade that guy. no matter what, we'll get good value for any of them.

you don't worry about marketability or their infatuation with Portland. the way the rules are written it'll be really, really hard for either guy to leave as a free agent. the tickets will sell themselves no matter which we choose.

pick the player who gives us the best chance to win multiple championships over the next 15 years, Pritchard. that's all. he'll be the one who dominates opponents on both ends and makes those around him better than they really are.

oh yeah--one more thing. pick Oden.
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Old 06-23-2007, 02:58 PM   #2 (permalink)
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Re: Things our GM should not think about when deciding Oden vs Durant

Best Player Available FTW! Absolutely 100% agree.

Actually, there are times when you should ignore BPA. If you have a logjam of talent at one position and the BPA you would be selecting isn't an upgrade, you might go with the next best.

If you are picking late in the draft, late 1st round or 2nd round, you can go for position. But generally, the closer you get to the top of the draft, the more important BPA becomes. The more talent that is riding on the pick, the more important BPA becomes. And if you are picking between two potentially franchise defining superduperstars, there is nothing that should cause you to deviate from BPA, ever.
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Old 06-23-2007, 03:33 PM   #3 (permalink)
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Re: Things our GM should not think about when deciding Oden vs Durant

I couldn't agree more.
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Old 06-23-2007, 04:29 PM   #4 (permalink)
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Re: Things our GM should not think about when deciding Oden vs Durant

oden is the best player
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Old 06-23-2007, 04:49 PM   #5 (permalink)
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Re: Things our GM should not think about when deciding Oden vs Durant

Quote:
Originally Posted by mook
you don't worry about marketability or their infatuation with Portland. the way the rules are written it'll be really, really hard for either guy to leave as a free agent. the tickets will sell themselves no matter which we choose.
For an average player, that might be true. For a superstar...not so much. Kobe and Garnett are this summer's examples of superstars who are demanding a trade and will probably get it. If a guy really doesn't want to play for you and is willing to be a major pain in the butt about it, and if he is good enough that other teams will want him and be willing to give back some decent value for him, the trade usually happens. We've all seen cases where an unhappy player is pouting and not producing for his current team and when he gets traded suddenly remembers how to play.

I think Pritchard had better pay attention to this detail.

BTW, I think that Oden is the guy who is most likely to be happy in Portland for the longest period of time.
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Old 06-23-2007, 05:03 PM   #6 (permalink)
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Re: Things our GM should not think about when deciding Oden vs Durant

Good points again, but I just wanna agree with everyone who says they are glad were not arguing over Green and Brewer lol
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Old 06-23-2007, 05:18 PM   #7 (permalink)
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Re: Things our GM should not think about when deciding Oden vs Durant

the dumb comparison game

Jordan vs. Olajuwon blasphemy
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Old 06-23-2007, 05:57 PM   #8 (permalink)
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Re: Things our GM should not think about when deciding Oden vs Durant

One thing he should worry about that isn't talked about much is the fact that we will face the player we don't choose atleast four times a year.

How are we going to defend against that player, and how will that player change Seattle's game?
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Old 06-23-2007, 07:13 PM   #9 (permalink)
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Re: Things our GM should not think about when deciding Oden vs Durant

easy oden will block every inside shot that durant throws up....
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Old 06-24-2007, 01:42 PM   #10 (permalink)
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Re: Things our GM should not think about when deciding Oden vs Durant

Quote:
Originally Posted by mook
I've seen in countless threads people mention:
X fits better with Aldridge
Y fits better with Roy
X is more of a "Nate" player
Y fits better with Randolph
Y seems to fit our team concept better
X is going to gel with Sergio in a few years
Y is more marketable
X will love Portland more

every time I read this, I can't help shaking my head and wondering if the poster understands the concept of Best Player Available.

you don't worry about if Nate can coach the player, because odds are that Nate will be gone long before either guy reaches his peak. I like Nate, but I don't see him as the next Jerry Sloan/Greg Popovich/Phil Jackson, who has permanent employ partially based on his ability to ride superstars. I could be wrong, but the odds are against it.

you don't worry much about the fit with Aldridge/Roy/Rodriguez/Randolph, because if one of them doesn't work, you trade that guy. no matter what, we'll get good value for any of them.

you don't worry about marketability or their infatuation with Portland. the way the rules are written it'll be really, really hard for either guy to leave as a free agent. the tickets will sell themselves no matter which we choose.

pick the player who gives us the best chance to win multiple championships over the next 15 years, Pritchard. that's all. he'll be the one who dominates opponents on both ends and makes those around him better than they really are.

oh yeah--one more thing. pick Oden.
I mostly agree, except the last two items. There is TONS of "noise" floating around.

Especially the "who fits better with our current roster" stuff.

What???

Who gives a rats behind?

The idea is to draft what you hope is a SuperStar that you build your team around for the next decade or longer. What are the chances that our current roster is similar to what we now have? Zero.

Last summer we turned over half the roster.

This pick is the foundation. Lay it first, then start building. If some of the bricks we already have fit nice, great, use them. If not, swap them out.

As far as non BPA issues that might affect the decision making, especially if Oden and Durant are considered to be very close in terms of BPA, the team might focus of potential of staying healthy during their career (Oden wrist and back? Skinny Durant), how likely the player will be happy to play entire career in Portland (plus for Oden?), marketability and selling tickets (plus for Durant), differences in each player's ability to attract and retain other players (plus for Oden?).
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Old 06-24-2007, 01:54 PM   #11 (permalink)
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Re: Things our GM should not think about when deciding Oden vs Durant

I'd say:

what's for dinner
string theory
Jessica Alba
hemorrhoids
Scooter Libby
beer
trimming his toenails
Monty Python's "Philosopher's Song"
North Korea
sexy farm animals

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Old 06-24-2007, 02:55 PM   #12 (permalink)
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Re: Things our GM should not think about when deciding Oden vs Durant

Things that should be taken into account against BPA are:

1) Injury issues

2) How well they mesh is other players (not how well they mesh with Aldridge or Roy, but in general how team oriented vs. personal stat they are.

3) And to a much lesser extent, how much they will like Portland and being in a small market team. I agree that this is not a big issue, but with some players it can be important.

With #2 and #3, I do not see any significant difference between Oden and Durant, so it's BPA alone. With #1, there may be a difference that is important, but only the doctors know how much injury risk and health concerns are present.
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Old 06-24-2007, 03:00 PM   #13 (permalink)
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Re: Things our GM should not think about when deciding Oden vs Durant

Quote:
Originally Posted by mook
I've seen in countless threads people mention:
X fits better with Aldridge
Y fits better with Roy
X is more of a "Nate" player
Y fits better with Randolph
Y seems to fit our team concept better
X is going to gel with Sergio in a few years
Y is more marketable
X will love Portland more

every time I read this, I can't help shaking my head and wondering if the poster understands the concept of Best Player Available.

you don't worry about if Nate can coach the player, because odds are that Nate will be gone long before either guy reaches his peak. I like Nate, but I don't see him as the next Jerry Sloan/Greg Popovich/Phil Jackson, who has permanent employ partially based on his ability to ride superstars. I could be wrong, but the odds are against it.

you don't worry much about the fit with Aldridge/Roy/Rodriguez/Randolph, because if one of them doesn't work, you trade that guy. no matter what, we'll get good value for any of them.

you don't worry about marketability or their infatuation with Portland. the way the rules are written it'll be really, really hard for either guy to leave as a free agent. the tickets will sell themselves no matter which we choose.

pick the player who gives us the best chance to win multiple championships over the next 15 years, Pritchard. that's all. he'll be the one who dominates opponents on both ends and makes those around him better than they really are.

oh yeah--one more thing. pick Oden.
I understand "best player available" but what determines what the best player is? Certain players can't score as much on their own but fit into a team concept better and play better D, what determines which is more valuable? I think if two players are fairly close skill wise, and the team already has a very good core of players that are in long term plans, then you pick who will fit better for sure. If we had no one in long-term plans than absolute "best available" which amounts to who can score on their own better makes more sense, but with an already solid long-term core of Roy and Aldridge, you gotta think about who will fit with them. I would decide to keep Roy and Aldridge rather than the pick if I had to decide between the two personally.

I just feel like Durant would render Roy rather useless and the game would boil down largely to isolation with Roy and Aldridge shooting lots of mid-range jumpers but not getting to be effective. With Oden you keep Brandon doing what he's best at, attacking the weak spots and getting teammates involved, Sergio has another great option to dump off to, you have another mobile big guy to set picks, another unselfish guy, and it frees up Lamarcus a ton to run out on the break, which he is phenomenal at for his size. Oden maximizes Roy, Sergio, and Aldridge much more so than Durant would.

So while perhaps on a completely empty team Durants Scoring > Oden's scoring and defense
in reality Durant doesn't offer anything in the realm of passing or defense so for the blazers...

Oden's scoring and defense, Roy getting the ball, Lamarcus freed up > Durant's scoring
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