Samuel

On the Books for 08-09 with guaranteed contracts
(assuming a Raef Re-up, and plausible extensions to existing rookie deals)

1. LaFrentz
2. Miles
3. Przybilla
4. Aldridge
5. Webster
6. Frye
7. Roy
8. Jones
9. Outlaw
10. Jack
11. Rodriguez
12. Oden
13. Blake
14. McRoberts
15. Green

Probable Additions
16. Fernandez (likely coming over for 08-09)
17. 1st Round Draft Pick (guaranteed contract for 08-09 unless playing internationally)

Rights Held
18. Koponen
19. Freeland
20. Memphis 2nd Rounder
21. New York 2nd Rounder
22. Phoenix 2nd Rounder

Though I have no real clue what Pritchard will do, I could totally see him trading the pick in a package for someone at a position of need (a bruising PF in the mold of a Milsap) or trading the pick for a future pick(s).

The reason I say that is because the question is 'does this team need another young, developing player?'

The answer is no. We are filled to the brim this year, and we have two more likely joining the active roster in 08-09.

That's not to say that the answer is to immediately trade several of them for vet help. It's clear that KP isn't thinking that way. However simply by standing pat, this roster will be taking on more youth, and it's becoming clear to me that there are only a few methods out of this.

- Green/McRoberts waived.
- Fernandez chooses more lucrative european offer over NBA.
- 1st Round pick is international.
- a trade

It's easy for us fans to say 'well we could do a 2-for-1 or 3-for-1 swap with another team', but unless one of the players is expiring, it's become more and more difficult to pull those trades off unless there are contractual loopholes/benefits involved (IE the James Jones swap), or you're giving up the greater value. Roster spots are valuable now that the NBA is proverbially 'full.'

My guess is as good as yours, but it seems that a combination of renouncing Green and something else might be the safest bet at this point. Then again, it's rarely a safe bet to assume KP will stand pat. I wouldn't put it past him to move Jack and/or the pick for something at the deadline.

What say you?

hasoos

Why would you ever assume a Lafrentz re-up? I see no sense in that at all.

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Hasoos

andalusian

Weel ,we talked about it a bit in the "Chicago comparison" thread. My guess is that a trade is pretty much a given and I am guessing that the '09 cap space plan is going to be sacrificed for something like: Raef + Pick + Young Asset or 2 (Webster + Green, for example) for a higher pick + Crappy veteran contract or lower pick + Young impact player in a position of need.

Since it is not clear what the only real position of need is - I am really not sure how they go from here. The Webster / Jones / Outlaw trio seems to work at the SF position and PG could be a need unless we call Roy the PG of the future, when a scoring SG or backup scoring SG becomes the need...

andalusian

He has a player option for $11 mil or so - why wouldn't he re-up?

Samuel

What I meant was, he has a player option for 08-09. I assume he will take it, as his current market value is far below 12.7 million.

MARIS61

Waive or trade LaFrentz, Miles, Frye, Jack, Blake. They don't/won't fit in the long run so bye-bye. If Jarrett accepts he'll never be our PG and embraces his bench SG role he might be a keeper, but he has indicated that won't happen.

Don't know about McBob.

I see the rest as keepers for now. Add Greg, Rudy and Koponnen and draft the best guy available.

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hasoos

Maybe. I was assuming it was a team option. As for if he takes it or not, he may have enough money and figure he can get some playing time somewhere else. It just matters what is important to him at that stage of his career.

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Hasoos

darkhelmit54

I completely a gree on all the players you want out, but I see Blake as a decent stop-gap before brandon makes the complete transition, but he'd also have value to a contendor. Jack I want out of here, taking time from sergio bugs me a lot, add rudy to the mix and he better be gone. Frye has decent value but isn't that great, will be less needed when we have Oden, and I wouldn't mind seeing Mcroberts anyways. However we can assume to trade those five guys (I'd add green because Koponen seems like a better prospect, size, shot, pure PG, not a chucker) but what do we look to get back? If we can get some cap relief and spare parts that expire quickly I'm all for it, that make us competetive now, but don't impede development. I like the though of some sort of deal for Malik Rose and fred jones (who would be a better backup SG than Jack) for Darius and Jack, though I'm not sure NY goes for it. What kind of players would you want to add?

Samuel

I would be completely shocked.

Draco

Green could be cut this year, no big deal.

Blake and Jones could be cut if a player coming in such as our first rounder plays the same position. The guys are nice to have, but we have many other options at those positions and the guys probably won't be signed in '09 so its only 1 year we'd lose them for.

McBob could easily be cut in training camp if the new rookies are outplaying him. Basically he'd have to "make the team."

Frye could be cut, he is going to make at least $4.2mil in 09 if we want to keep him, is he really worth that potential cap space? Next season we'll be a bit deeper with bigs as well.

LaFrentz could be bought out of the final year of his contract.

We could draft foreign players, especially with the 2nd rounders, and wait to bring them over.

I really don't think it's going to be much of a problem. We can wait until the end of training camp to make any of the above cuts, just like the Knicks did this year when they cut Demetrius Nicoles, who they acquired from us. Will we potentially lose a player that may have played some minutes in 08-09? Yes possibly, but I don't think any of the above options harms the long-term ability of our franchise.

Boob-No-More

I disagree on Frye. He'll never be superstar, or even a starter on a championship caliber team. However, he is perfect in the role he was brought here to fill - backing up LaMarcus Aldridge. He's not as good as Aldridge (which is why Aldridge starts, duh), but his game is VERY similar. That makes him the perfect back-up for Aldridge.

Next year Oden and Aldridge will start at the 5 and 4, with Joel and Frye the back-ups. While you obviously lose some talent between the 1st and 2nd units, you keep the same style of players, with similar strengths, between the two units. What that means is you don't have to change the game plan or draw up new plays if one of your starters gets in foul trouble, or (knock wood) get !njured (I refuse to say the "i" word).

So, when Oden gets in foul trouble, Joel comes in and gives us rebounding and interior defense. If LaMarcus is in foul trouble, needs a rest, has a sore foot, etc. Frye steps in alongside Oden and gives you the mid-range jumper needed to spread the defense and create space for Oden to operate down low.

Frye is a GREAT fit (notice I said GREAT fit, not GREAT player). Not only does his style make him a great back-up to Aldridge, but he's also the right age to peak at the same time as the rest of our young core. Those who thought he stunk earlier in the year need to remember that, due to Oden's injury, he was being forced to play a role (starting center) much different than his long term role on this team (back-up power forward). Once Nate finally started using Frye as originally intended, Channing has been great. He's shooting the ball better and even getting more rebounds. He seems comfortable in his role and isn't forcing things. Frankly the Blazers would not have won 11 in a row without the play of Channing Frye (he was HUGE in that Denver game and is shooting and rebounding were key in the win over Seattle). I'm very pleased with his play this month and hope they keep him around long term - as Aldridge's back-up.

BNM

hasoos

Or the bunch of draft picks and a player or so for one decent player trade. Those are the ones you want anyhow.

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Hasoos

dudleysghost

Pretty tough to predict. Even without the internationals, we've got 2 too many. If Miles is able to play, I think that might actually make us more likely to waive him. As an injured player, we have to hold onto him to have any hope of a medical retirement. If we waive him and he isn't playing, then there is zero chance he will sign with another team. But if he is playing, he could potentially sign with another team after he clears waivers, giving the Blazers some small amount of cap relief as well as the open roster spot, which may be the most they can get at this point.

Raef will definitely re-up, because nobody would pass up $12 million. We could definitely shop him though, since next season he will officially be in the last year of his contract. We want cap space, potentially, but if we can package Raef with some youth to get the kind of player we want to build around that way instead of as a free agent, we will. Jack is candidate number 1 to be packaged with Raef, but I think we will also consider adding Webster, Frye, Sergio, Green, McBob, our 08 or 09 picks ... anyone who isn't LMA, Roy, Oden or Outlaw. People in here will want to add veterans like Blake, Jones, Joel to Raef, but that doesn't work, because whoever is dumping a solid high-paid veteran for cap space will also want youth as well.

Basically, they will look to package Raef with young players/picks in a trade that gets us back something good and clears roster spots. Whether they are successful depends on what will be available.

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crowTrobot

you should add that jones is almost certainly going to opt out and shop himself. good chance we won't want to pay him long-term and he won't even be in the mix next year.