dkap

However, in Jones' case, that 12/3 split corresponds pretty close to when he starting getting consistent minutes. He had only played in 7 games prior to that, and only 3 of them with 20+ minutes.

I view Jones' shooting as being just as important to Roy's success as Roy's driving is to Jone's shooting. Neither one works nearly as well without the other (or Blake/Webster in place of Jones), and they cannot be separated as neatly as much of the analysis is attempting to do.

Dan

Boob-No-More

I noted the small sample size for Jones prior to 12/3 in my original post. However, that does nothing to explain how a guy who has never shot higher than 0.398 3FG% in his career is suddenly leading the league with a 0.550 3FG%.

Combine that with Blake's simultaneous, and even more dramatic, improvement in 3FG shooting, and I'd say it's much more than just a coincidence that both instantaneously improved their 3FG% by 15-20% (compared to both their career averages and what they were shooting prior to 12/3) when the Blazers decided to run the offense through Brandon Roy.

Yes, Jones and Blake are making the shots. Kudos to them. But, it's Brandon Roy's penetration and the defensive attention he commands that is leaving them wide open with plenty of time to set their feet and line-up their shot before the defense can recover.

BNM

DucRider

BlazerDog is so correct.

I lived around Denver from 84 to 98. Went to most of the Nuggets games from 85 - 90 and 92-96. No way does the current Blazers roster compare to those Nuggets, it is much better, much deeper, and the GM and Coach are better. And the biggest hit to the early 90s Nuggets was losing LaPhonso Ellis to knee injuries and he doesn't mention that. That man could play. He and Malone had some great battles. Mutombo had no offensive skills and slowed the offense down, not unlike Zach did to the Blazers last year.

I'd also disagree that Moe's teams couldn't contend...they were there and gave the Lakers and Rockets fits, especially when Little Magic (Michael Adams) was there. The trade with the Blazers that brought Fat Lever, Wayne Cooper and Calvin Natt was great for the Nuggets and without injuries (Fat's knee injury and Jay Vincents calf in the playoffs killed their run) they probably would have made the finals in 86, at the time Moe said it was "us" or the Rockets (they lost to the Celtics in the finals) the Lakers were down that year.

Moe's biggest problem is that he could not deal with youth, he had to have veterans that could understand and run his system and he had too short of a rotation.

Kudos to Nate for adapting to a young team and not insisting that they play "his" way (they are playing his way - defense and sharing the ball, but I'm talking about so tight and the ball not in B-Roy's hands to initiate plays.)

Talkhard

Roy's stats may not be much better this year, but he is definitely a better player. I've seen moves from him this year that I never saw before, and he has a calm confidence in the fourth quarter that has made a big difference. Roy is the straw that stirs the drink, no doubt about it.

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"Damn the Blazers. Damn them to hell. They are working the rest of the league like a speed bag." --Jay, lifelong Pacers fan

HurraKane212

By the way (Original poster here) WoW has plenty of issues. WoW seems to over value rebounds and have a very high standard for Efg%. I think that it's an interesting perspective but I can't say I agree with all of Berris' assumptions.

Remember, intangebles are by definition un-quantifiable.

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< insert witty Blazers related remark that both bemuses and enlightens here>

↑ ↑ ↓ ↓ ← → ← → B A

Masbee

First you must buy the premise that Wins Produced is a worthwhile individual stat. Since it is a controversial concept with many detractors, I will humbly suggest that your statement above is without merit.

Aldridge IS better than last season.

Roy IS better than last season.

The role players, as you pointed out, are mostly playing better than last season.

Joel, as you point out, being healthly, is having a good season.

The team defense has gone from completely, insanely bad, to modestly passable.

All those reasons (and more) are the explanation for the team winning more games than expected.

If this guy wants to make a case that Roy and Aldridge are just along for the ride, more power to him. I think he should get into politics if he can pull that off. More lucrative.

statman

There is something else interesting about J. Jones' stats. His free throw attempts are way way up compared to his career numbers.

Career-wise:
~ 1 free throw attempt for every 5 field goal attempts (2.3 FTA per 36 minutes)
This year:
~ 1 free throw attempt for every 2 field goal attempts (4.4 FTA per 36 minutes)

Obviously the more FTA's you get, the greater your scoring efficiency (points per possession used) especially for an 89% free throw shooter. He's obviosly taking the ball to the hole alot more often. Is that due to coaching? Roy? Any ideas?

Some Effiency Comparisons
1.41 J. Jones - 2007-2008 <--- WOW
1.08 J. Jones - Career

1.10 J. Jack - 2007-2008
1.09 J. Jack - Career

1.10 S. Blake - 2007-2008
1.02 S. Blake - Career

1.04 B. Roy - 2007-2008
1.06 B. Roy - Career

FOR FUN
0.92 Z. Randolph - 2007-2008
1.02 Z. Randolph - Career

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If Utah Jazz fall down in the forest... is it a foul?

GOD

Well I know that Jones has been fouled some while shooting 3pters which gives him 3 shots. Also, he is now shooting our techs. I don't know how much difference that makes, just pointing that out.

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statman

Good points. I didn't think of the technical fouls. That would account for some of it.

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If Utah Jazz fall down in the forest... is it a foul?

wastro

The one question I have about Jones' productivity is how sustainable it is. I mean, if he could only knock down 40% of his shots with Steve Nash at the point, how's he doing so much better now? I would understand 2-4% bump, but he's shooting more than 10% better than his career average. That screams "aberration!" to me.

My guess is that he simply improved over the summer and changed his spacing on the floor, which alters the number of open shots he gets and where he gets them.

But I haven't seen enough of Jones in the past to speak to that for sure.

So I wonder if he can possibly keep it up all year long. I would like to think so, but he's gotta revert back to his averages at some point, right?

dkap

Or, could it also be that having multiple hot shooters on the floor is making it easier (less defensive attention, and less pressure) on each of them? They always talk about free throw shooting being contagious. I see no reason why 3 pt shooting wouldn't be, too.

Fair question. It's already been noted that the Phoenix style of play might not have suited him as well as our more halfcourt oriented set. I would also add that he's got a much bigger role here than he did in Phoenix (largely why I think the minutes increase around 12/3 is as much to do with his improvement as Roy's play at the point), where he seemed to be the last option on the floor whenever he was in. I doubt he'll stay in the mid-50's all year, but I believe high-40's is possible.

statman, great point about the free throws. However you explain it, it comes right down to him having an increased role vs. his time in Phoenix, which in turn helps explain the increased efficiency. These things are not coincidental, nor are they purely explained by what his teammates (i.e. Roy) are doing.

Dan

Public Defender

I agree with you halfway. This whole "Roy's stats may not be better" is flat wrong (and I don't mean anything personal, Talkhard, you're just the latest of a few who have said something similar).

Even look at the source document - the "table" - in Berri's article. Almost two more assists per game? More than two points more scored per game? Fewer turnovers? 1.2 more free throw attempts per game? 1.2 fewer fouls committed per game?

Roy is undoubtedly better in two very important categories. By scoring two points per game and dishing out two more assists per game, means Roy is responsible for almost six or seven more points per game than he was last year (depending on whether his assists turn into two's or three's). And he was already responsible for a great deal of Portland's offense.

As for LaMarcus Aldridge - the guy is averaging a full six points more per game on his own, and like Roy, he's getting to the free throw line more. What's more with LMA, is that the ball is being put in his hands more and he's responding with a better field goal percentage (though he has more turnovers).

I'd be the first to agree that guys like James Jones, Travis Outlaw, Channing Frye, Jarrett Jack, and Martell Webster are huge factors in the Blazers' improvement, this season. But to downplay the undisputed leader of the team, Brandon Roy, as well as the indispensable high/low threat of Aldridge, is to not really understand how the Blazers play the game.

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Next year...

Masbee