wizmentor

...and we're 25 and 16. We've played 20 Home games and 21 Road Games.

If we win at the rate we did LAST year (32/82), we will finish with 41 wins.
If we win at 0.500, we will finish with 46 wins.
If we win at our current rate, we will finish with 50 wins.

Normally, 46 wins would be more than good enough to get into the playoffs.
This year is a little weird since the bottom of the league is so weak,
but 46 will probably get us in.

Go Blazers.

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"Bayless is going to be that guy where, you know, Nate goes 'Oh you put in your second unit to give your starters a rest? Well, watch this.' And he's going to throw in Bayless and he's going to point to that second unit point guard and he's going to say 'Eat Him Alive', and Jarryd probably will."

---Dave Deckard of BlazersEdge

Shaq: Hey Thorpe, I'm getting sized for a thumb ring
SportsNation David Thorpe: I guess your wife is back in your life. Congrats.

KingSpeed

I don't think 46 gets us in. The current 8 seed, G.S., is on pace to win 48 games and they have an easy schedule coming up! And Utah and Houston, both of whom were considered contenders before the season started, are going to make a run. In all honesty, I think we have to win 50 games to make it.

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Talkhard

Zack, what are you doing when you're not attending the Blazer games? Do you go see movies, go out to dinner, visit museums, etc.? Just curious. I have this image of you sitting alone in a hotel room somewhere furiously typing away on a laptop and ordering room service. Hope you're getting out and living a little, too!

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"Damn the Blazers. Damn them to hell. They are working the rest of the league like a speed bag." --Jay, lifelong Pacers fan

wizmentor

That would be completely unprecedented. ESPN has all of the standings
since 90-91 on their web site (click on standings, then the year in the
upper right, and then click on conference in the upper left). In
EVERY year, 46 wins gets you in. There was only ONE year where you
needed 46, and only 1 or 2 others where you needed 45.

Bottom line - if we win 47 we are certainly in, we don't need 50!

That said, let's go for 50!

__________________
"Bayless is going to be that guy where, you know, Nate goes 'Oh you put in your second unit to give your starters a rest? Well, watch this.' And he's going to throw in Bayless and he's going to point to that second unit point guard and he's going to say 'Eat Him Alive', and Jarryd probably will."

---Dave Deckard of BlazersEdge

Shaq: Hey Thorpe, I'm getting sized for a thumb ring
SportsNation David Thorpe: I guess your wife is back in your life. Congrats.

KingSpeed

Actually, there was one year in which 8th seeded Timberwolves were 47-35. Houston won 45 games and missed out. And Seattle won 44 games and missed out.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2000-01_NBA_season

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KingSpeed

Your image is correct and I'm loving it.

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BlazerCaravan

Another way to look at our chances:

The first quarter of the season (21 games) -- 9-12 (42.8%)
The second quarter of the season (20 games) -- 16-4 (80.0%)

Prognostications:
Potential* second half performance: 32-9 (78.1%) - 57-25
Median range** second half potential: 25-16 (63.4%) - 50-32


*based on the second quarter win percentage.
**calculated by using duplicating our first half wins in the second half.

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The kids are all right!

MrJayremmie

we need 50+ to get in the playoffs, imo. I think we can do it. We have had a hard schedule, more road games than home, and are about to finish out long road trip of the year. WE CAN DO IT!

GO BLAZERS!

wizmentor

Um, you've just proved my point. Had the T-wolves won 46, they would
have still made the playoffs. All anyone has needed in the West
is 46 since 91-92 (and probably before that, too).

__________________
"Bayless is going to be that guy where, you know, Nate goes 'Oh you put in your second unit to give your starters a rest? Well, watch this.' And he's going to throw in Bayless and he's going to point to that second unit point guard and he's going to say 'Eat Him Alive', and Jarryd probably will."

---Dave Deckard of BlazersEdge

Shaq: Hey Thorpe, I'm getting sized for a thumb ring
SportsNation David Thorpe: I guess your wife is back in your life. Congrats.

KingSpeed

I hear ya.

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Yega1979

This is definitly a year where 46 may not get you to the playoffs. But getting in as the 8th seend to face the Spurs or Suns isn't my idea of fun. But I really doubt the Blazers will only play .500 ball from here on out. We probably won't go on any more 13 game winning streaks, but we won't drop 9 of 10 either. I'm sure we'll get to 50 wins, and win our division.

We've played 3 more road games than Denver, and have the tie breaker against them. They're schedule is getting really tough, while we are looking at a 6 game home stand.

__________________
"Why of course the people don't want war ... But after all it is the leaders of the country who determine the policy, and it is always a simple matter to drag the people along, whether it is a democracy, or a fascist dictatorship, or a parliament, or a communist dictatorship ... Voice or no voice, the people can always be brought to the bidding of the leaders. That is easy. All you have to do is to tell them they are being attacked, and denounce the pacifists for lack of patriotism and exposing the country to danger. It works the same in any country."

Hermann Goering, Nazi leader

KingSpeed

We're gonna face a tough team no matter what seed we are. There is no clear leader in the West right now. Spurs would actually be the 5th seed if the playoffs started today. And we'd play them in the first round. And we wouldn't have HCA. All that for winning our division.

But like I said, all the West teams are tough. But we've been good against New Orleans, Denver, Utah, GS, and we still don't know what we look like in a game vs the Suns or Lakers. We'll see.

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wastro

I love your enthusiasm, but I'm going to have to put the brakes on the Playoffs Express for just two seconds. Just don't think that far ahead -- at least not yet. Consider:

The Lakers have been unreal this year, and if they can hold down the fort without Bynum, they'll be a tough playoffs team this year.

Golden State plays something like three road games over the next six weeks.

Utah has a favorable home schedule.

San Antonio turns it on when it counts.

The Mavericks are finding their groove.

Denver is going to be right there when the dust settles.

So you have all of that. Things probably won't look like they do now in another three months.

But going in Portland's favor, you have three games against Seattle and two against Minnesota. Then we have games with the Clippers, Knicks, Charlotte and Memphis. There are some good opportunities for the Blazers to give themselves some padding between now and April.

All I'm saying is, there's a lot of basketball to be played over the next 41 games. It's too early to look forward to play-off match-ups, in my opinion.