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Old 03-11-2008, 03:04 PM   #16 (permalink)
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Re: Small forwards in the draft?

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The player we SHOULD have drafted instead of Outlaw...
Outlaw is doing fine


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That's exactly why it would be odd to draft a PG. The team is supposed to be an NBA power starting next season, and, Tony Parker aside, you don't do that with a (YOUNG) rookie at PG. Blake will be more useful next year than he is now because he'll be more open for threes, and conversely, we'll need scoring from our PG less.
We aren't supposed to be a "power" starting next year. Rudy and Oden's rookie year, we are aiming to get in the playoffs and get the team some experience. Getting a rookie PG and letting him learn as a backup for one year isn't a bad idea.

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Hmm. Ellis isn't a PG, and Barbosa isn't really either. Besides which, neither will be available. Calderon is going nowhere (we've already tried) for less than we wouldn't want to give up (that does make sense, honest). Ford is likely available, but he's injury-prone and short (and I have bad feelings at getting short PGs off the Raptors). Harris is only available if the Nets are exploding the team, and maybe not even then. I think we can make a run with Blake as our starter.
We don't need a pure PG. Ellis and Barbosa are both great options because they will help us with our scoring and fast break offense. Roy will still have the ball in his hands at crucial times, and we will have Blake as a very solid backup PG. Someone who can create for themselves and for others, to help Roy out sounds great.

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It's WAY too early to predict draft position. I bet if you looked back to this time two years ago, Roy would have been low first round too. We don't even know who's declaring yet. And if a player's good, take him higher. Everybody from about pick 5 down should have done that with Josh Howard.
its not too early to do anything. Based on what i saw from him this sesason, draft express, nbadraft.net, and espn, i made an assumption.

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Originally Posted by meru
That's exactly why it would be odd to draft a PG. The team is supposed to be an NBA power starting next season, and, Tony Parker aside, you don't do that with a (YOUNG) rookie at PG
Quote:
Originally Posted by meru
Westbrook sounds interesting just because he's supposed to be a good defender, and we certainly need good athletic perimeter defenders.
ok...
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PG - Steve Blake | Jerryd Bayless | Sergio Rodriguez
SG - Brandon Roy | Rudy Fernandez
SF - Martell Webster | Travis Outlaw | Nicolas Batum
PF - LaMarcus Aldridge | Channing Frye | Ike Diogu
C - Greg Oden | Joel Pryzbilla | Raef LaFrentz

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Old 03-11-2008, 03:21 PM   #17 (permalink)
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Re: Small forwards in the draft?

What about CDR from Memphis. He has played well for the last two years, and is one of the more NBA ready players in the country. He may not have the ceillin some guys do, but he will be able to contribute right away.
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Old 03-11-2008, 03:28 PM   #18 (permalink)
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Re: Small forwards in the draft?

This draft is just too PG deep to go for a SF in round 1.

In round 2, I would not be opposed to dealing our 2 top 5 2nd round picks to get into the bottom of the draft and steal a guy like Bill Walker, Brandon Rush or Davon Jefferson.
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Old 03-11-2008, 03:41 PM   #19 (permalink)
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Re: Small forwards in the draft?

No desire to put Roy as starting PG?

Giving up on Webster and Outlaw at SF?

I agree you guys should probably go PG in the draft. Batum is too large a project for where you're at.
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Old 03-11-2008, 03:44 PM   #20 (permalink)
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Re: Small forwards in the draft?

I am a firm believer in taking the BPA.

When you draft for "need", you wind up trading Paul for Webster!
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Old 03-11-2008, 03:49 PM   #21 (permalink)
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Re: Small forwards in the draft?

I think KP will try to trade up in this draft.

Speaking of SF's in this draft, the best all-around SF in this draft is Danilo Gallinari, the 6'10" product from Italy. I think he's a bit out of our reach though, Chad Ford and others are convinced this guy will eventually emerge as the consensus #3 pick.

I've watched 3 games and read a lot of scouting reports on Gallinari. The player I think he will be is what Hedo Turkoglu has turned into with Orlando. An all-around player who can score from just about everywhere on the floor and is a very good passer.

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Old 03-11-2008, 03:56 PM   #22 (permalink)
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Re: Small forwards in the draft?

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You know I wouldn't doubt that Webster does become that SF we want. He has progressed quite well.
I'm not sure he's progressed. His raw stats are higher, but that's likely due to playing more minutes. An efficiency stat like PER suggests that he's not improved at all. His PERs are:

2005-06: 11.6
2006-07: 9.9
2007-08: 11.8

The system is normalized for 15.0 PER to be an average starter. This isn't conclusive, but it matches observation, to me. Webster still has no consistency and is not involved for many minutes at a time. He shoots the ball well, but he doesn't create his own shot well. He's also not a very explosive player. And his rebounding is nothing special for a forward.

I wouldn't count on Webster as anything but a useful reserve.
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Old 03-11-2008, 04:16 PM   #23 (permalink)
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Re: Small forwards in the draft?

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Originally Posted by Minstrel View Post
I'm not sure he's progressed. His raw stats are higher, but that's likely due to playing more minutes. An efficiency stat like PER suggests that he's not improved at all. His PERs are:

2005-06: 11.6
2006-07: 9.9
2007-08: 11.8

The system is normalized for 15.0 PER to be an average starter. This isn't conclusive, but it matches observation, to me. Webster still has no consistency and is not involved for many minutes at a time. He shoots the ball well, but he doesn't create his own shot well. He's also not a very explosive player. And his rebounding is nothing special for a forward.

I wouldn't count on Webster as anything but a useful reserve.
Yeah I don't look at stats to tell whether a player is improving. Too many variables. I trust my eyes more so. But I agree he doesn't create his own shot well. That is why I said he needs to develop that pull up 6 ft jumper. He has no problem getting to a open spot because his man has to jump out at him because he is such a good 3 pt shooter. He goes right people, he just doesn't finish well enough at this point. Really not worried about his rebounding especially playing with Oden, LA and BRoy. I am much more concerned with someone being able to spread the floor. As for consistency.....again most players are not consistant, especially at his age. That goes back to his work ethic. The coaches know if he has it. They are guessing on college/foreign players.
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Old 03-11-2008, 04:29 PM   #24 (permalink)
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Re: Small forwards in the draft?

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Originally Posted by chairman View Post
Yeah I don't look at stats to tell whether a player is improving. Too many variables. I trust my eyes more so.
I use both, because both observation and statistics have flaws.

If your main points are that Webster can be a good offensive player if he learns to create his own shot and develops consistency, then I agree with you. I simply think you're glossing over how unlikely both those things are. Webster will now have been in the league three years. Most high schoolers who pan out tend to make a big step forward within their first few seasons. Webster hasn't. "Creating one's shot" is a very difficult skill and odds are that if Webster doesn't already have it, he's not going to develop it to any great degree. His lack of explosiveness will always make creating his shot tougher. As for consistency, yes, most players aren't consistent and that's why most players aren't above-average starters. Webster right now, to me, projects as a good reserve and a below-average starter. That's where players who can't consistently make an impact on the game end up, in the best case scenario.
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Old 03-11-2008, 04:34 PM   #25 (permalink)
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Re: Small forwards in the draft?

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Originally Posted by meru View Post
(To answer my own question) how about Nicolas Batum?

(If I could work out how to embed YouTube clips, I'd embed this one.)

What IS that accent? I know it's Scottish, but it sounds like someone learned their English IN Scotland.
<object width="425" height="355"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/PT7SV6qAGGQ"></param><param name="wmode" value="transparent"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/PT7SV6qAGGQ" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" wmode="transparent" width="425" height="355"></embed></object>
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Old 03-11-2008, 04:35 PM   #26 (permalink)
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Re: Small forwards in the draft?

There is a link on the right hand side of the video that says "EMBED"

You copy that link and paste it into the message.
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Old 03-11-2008, 04:47 PM   #27 (permalink)
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Re: Small forwards in the draft?

we would be very lucky to land Danilo Gallinari we would have a nice mix of american and international players ala spurs......KP came from what team......spurs.......
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Old 03-11-2008, 05:59 PM   #28 (permalink)
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You know I wouldn't doubt that Webster does become that SF we want. He has progressed quite well. He is big, strong, showing more hops than expected, shoots a good 12-23 ft shot, and his defense is improving every game.
While I'd welcome Martell improving and becoming an intergal part of this team, he'll never be a "big" SF. 6'6 w/ a 6'11 wingspan is on the smallish side for SFs. Outlaw at 6'7 & 7'2 and Jones at 6'7.5 & 7'3.5 are about average.

To the thread question... I've liked the clips I've seen of Batum. He seems to be bring decent size, athleticism, and an NBA wing skillset as near as I can tell. He looks to be projected around where the club is drafting so I'm sure we'll be hearing more about him.

Koponen to Batum... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VHBUoVgHKs0

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