Mr. Chuck Taylor

Well, if next year's race is as close as this years, there won't even be much difference between competing for a top spot vs a 7/8 seed. So, yeah, it's possible. I think Oden is the biggest factor. Everyone knows the kid is going to be good, but how good, and how soon? Of course, injuries, and the impact of Rudy, and potential trades are also all big factors.

__________________
G.O. to rehab? I say...NO, NO, NO!

e_blazer1

Given that this year's version of the Blazers went 2-2 against both the Lakers and the Hornets, there's clearly no reason to think that next season's improved team won't be able to compete with the best teams in the West. The issue is whether the Blazers will have the improved consistency needed to get a top spot in the West. I don't think anyone can know that with any certainty until we see how Oden looks next fall and whether Rudy is in a Blazers uniform and matches up to our expectations.

__________________
Blazermania is BACK!!!

Anonymous Gambler

I wouldn't trade oden for chris paul. a dominant center is worth more than a dominant point guard. I expect oden to be better than cp3 and I believe we have better talent around him than NO does.

west, chandler and stoyakovic or roy, aldridge and outlaw/rudy? who would u rather have?

next year we will have some great interior defense with oden pryz and aldridge and will have plenty of scoring threats. and one of our young guns will improve to the next step.

in short, I see it possible that we catch no.

GOD

Although I agree that I would not trade Oden for Paul, I think it is unlikely that Oden will have that great of an effect in year one. He will have an impact, but not comparative to Paul. I would not do the trade because 4 years from now I see Oden as more likely going to the finals than Paul. And this is not a knock on Paul, it is just that the best Center in the league will have a greater effect than the best PG in the league. Just look at a prime shaq v a prime Nash/Kidd or something like that.

__________________

B_&_B

Oden, Rudy, and a PG upgrade will no doubt get us in the playoffs.

Even if we stick with our current PG's, I can still see us winning the 5th or 6th seed. With Rudy, Roy will play more PG.

Then in 2009/2010... the top seed is ours!

__________________

Oldmangrouch

Realistically, we are looking at adding 9 wins just to make a run at the post-season. To get into the top 4, we are looking at maybe 15 wins. That is no small task!

__________________
No trees were killed to bring you this message. Sadly, a number of electrons were annoyed and inconvenienced!

Nightfly

I'm afraid I don't see it.

I think this year's team over-achived. Oden will no doubt make the team better, but I think they will be lucky to make it into the playoffs, even as an 8 seed.

__________________
Radio is my life.

Once known as HearToTemptYou.

Draco

Chris Paul for Oden? Thats a hard one but I think I'd have to pull the trigger. Chris Paul is setting all-time records for a PG, his value is right up there with Lebron and Dwight Howard.

GOD

I think this is a fallacy. Just cause it was so hard to get into the playoffs this year does not mean that it will require similar wins next season. This is for several reasons.

1 - Good teams get better and take wins from lesser teams.
Let's just take LA as an example. Next year, they will most likely be even better. Bynum only played 35 games this year and Ariza was also injured for large stretches. They will also have a chance in the offseason to grab another player or two to fill gaps. As LA improves, they will be win more games not only against weak teams, but also against other top teams, hence lowering the amount of wins that seeds 3-8 would likely have. Other top teams that might be on the rise include NO. Paul has improved every year. They will also be able to fill some gaps during the offseason. So, as good teams turn great, other good teams win a few less. The best team in the West this year only won 57 games, usually the top team will win in the mid 60's.

2 - Good teams will get worse due to age/poor decisions. Teams like Dallas and Phoenix did a very good job during the regular season, then made a trade that made them even older and they are not as good as they were. They may improve during the off-season, but they may get worse. As they decline, the numbers of wins needed decreases.

3 - Injuries to old teams. Teams like the Spurs and Phoenix rely heavily on a lot of vets. The older the player gets, the more likely they are to get injured. this could completely change the makeup of teams in the playoffs

4 - Bad teams get better. Teams like the Wolves, Sonics and Clippers should all be better next year. This will make it harder for teams to win consistently against the lesser teams.



Basically, it is my belief that this year was a perfect storm situation that resulted in extraordinary parody amongst the top teams in the West and extreme diversity between the top teams and the worst teams. The result of this storm is that 49 wins were required to get into the playoffs. In almost every other year, 40-46 wins would ensure a spot. Sure, there will still be a wide gap between the East and West so it will be harder to get into the playoffs then in the East, but I highly doubt that it will be as hard as it was this year. My prediction is that 44-45 wins next year will make the playoffs in the west.

__________________

Oldmangrouch

You could be right....it might take fewer than 50 wins to make the play-offs. I will bet you that it still takes 55+ to get a top 4 seed. There is no reason for the Lakers, NO, or Utah to slip next season. SA has some supporting players who are getting long in the tooth, but their 3 man core is still fine.

Of the second tier teams, I would say that Houston has as much chance of getting better (or at least healthier) as the Suns and Mavs do of slipping.

That leaves a potential train-wreck in Denver, and a total wild-card in GS.

We will be counting heavily on rookies to help us leap-frog at least 2 of those teams. It may not be as tough as this season, but it is still no small chore!

__________________
No trees were killed to bring you this message. Sadly, a number of electrons were annoyed and inconvenienced!

ebott

I'm not sure that's as realistic as you think it is. This was a some what preposterous year in that you had to have 50 wins to make the playoffs. That has never happened before. I doubt it will happen again next year.

A lot of the really bad teams should be much better next season and there will be more parody rather than the sort of top heavyness parody we had this season. I'm thinking 45 wins will be enough next season. Less if they do any rearranging in the playoff format.

This I totally agree with. The general theory in being in the top 4 is that you have to win your division. This season Utah won 54 games. Being relatively young I expect them to continue improving. So it will take at least an extra 15 wins to be in that upper echelon group.

__________________
"It was a no-brainer," said fan Eric Botteron of Portland. "Welcome to the Garden of Oden!"
Kevin Pritchard is your only God.

RoyToy

It depends on what the Suns and Mavs decide to do with their respective rosters, and the Nuggets also. One of those teams might want to blow it up and start over, or at least make drastic changes. It's hard to tell though.

Also, this team has still yet to make changes. For all we know the Blazers add pieces that makes this team a 50+ win team, like a Shane Battier, etc.

I think the Blazers make the playoffs next year.

craigehlo

Experience. Without that we can compete for a low seed possibly. If we trade for a vet, we might get into the mix of a 4-5-6 seed.

Chris Paul is the next coming of Isiah Thomas. Comparing our top 3 to theirs is missing the point. He's the best playmaker in the NBA.