PorterIn2004

I understand that Oden will have an impact right away and that, if he stays healthy, he's as sure-fire a Hall of Fame candidate as James was at the same point. I remember well that he dominated that Florida team with Horford and company.

I'm also pretty aware of the numbers that guys like Howard, Horford, and others have put in their first years. Generally it's been something around 10 and 10. I wouldn't be surprised to see Oden beat that. I could see something like 15 and 10 with perhaps as many as 3 assists and something like 1.5 blocks.

I also expect him to have a significant impact away from the stat sheet with altered shots and the like.

All that said, I wouldn't be at all surprised to see Rudy Fernandez come in and have a yet bigger impact, with all kinds of game-changing shots, including at the ends of both the first half and the end of games. I think that, on the offensive side of the ball, he's got the potential to come in and have a nearly Kobe Bryant-like impact.

Am I expecting that? I wouldn't go that far. But I could see Fernandez having that kind of huge impact more easily than I can Oden (at either end), at least over the first half of the season.

edit: I realized I didn't include guesses for Fernandez's stats so, roughly: 13 points, 3 rebounds, 4 assists, 1.5 steals, decent shooting percentages from all over the floor, and at least a half-dozen game-winning shots.

I realize that I'm guessing Oden's raw stats to be, on the whole, better than Fernandez. However, I think the step up from Jack to Fernandez will be hugely greater than the step from someone like Frye to Oden, at least for the first half of next season. After that, all bets are off.

PapaG

Manu has decent ballhandling skills while Rip has almost no ballhandling skills.

He seems like a younger and slightly bigger Ray Allen, at least in his games that I've seen.

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PorterIn2004

Okay so, thinking about it more, here's why I think Fernandez may have as much or more impact as Oden next season. Who is Fernandez going to be taking the majority of his minutes from? Jack. Who's Oden going to be taking the majority of his minutes from? Przybilla/Frye. I think the quality of play will be a much greater difference between Jack and Fernandez than from Przy and Frye to Oden, at least initially. Once Oden's really got his stride (which I'm guessing will come somewhere between the halfway point and the end of the season, perhaps with a rookie wall in there somewhere, too) that might all change.

Anyone else see it that way or am I on an island?

LameR

I think it's very possible early on. The other thing to consider though is that Rudy isn't likely to "hit his stride" from the beginning either.

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PorterIn2004

That's certainly true. I'm just guessing that Rudy will be there sooner than Greg because he's:

A) played at a higher level of competition;

B) played at said level for a longer period of time; and

C) won't have just been away from the game for a year.

On the other hand, Greg's been around the team, has a better command of the language, has been getting coached at least some by the Blazers' coaching staff this last year, and should have the advantage of starting (and potentially getting more minutes, though with foul trouble I question that).

Boob-No-More

I think Oden will have a bigger impact as a rookie - and thereafter - than Fernandez. It's not that I have low expectations for Rudy, but Oden will have a very significant impact in three areas where this year's team had significant weakness.

Rebounding was a weakness for this team all year. Joel turned it up after the all-star break and Frye finished strong, but Oden starting will not only improve the rebounding of the starting unit, it also means Joel at center and Channing at power forward on the second unit (instead of Channing at center and Outlaw at power forward). So, much better rebounding for all 48 minutes.

Interior defense - this might be the area where Oden has the biggest impact. The Blazers got killed in the paint this year. They gave up way to many easy baskets. They were better with Joel in the game than without him, but Oden is much more athletic than Joel. Joel's blocks were way down this year. He wasn't as aggressive as in year's past. He was probably trying to avoid foul trouble, but I also think it had something to do with the amount of zone defense that Blazers played this season. Joel's not quick enough to cover the entire lane area defensively when playing a zone - Oden is. I expect Oden to average around 2.5 - 3 BPG, and he has the ability to average even more if he can stay out of foul trouble enough to average 30 MPG.

Finally, Oden (~17 PPG) will be a HUGE upgrade offensively over Joel (less than 5 PPG). He will give us a reliable, night-in-night-out third scorer to go with Roy and Aldridge. In fact, he may end up being our second highest scorer. I think both Oden and Aldridge will average in the high teens this coming season. Not sure which one will average more. The big upgrade offensively will be in points in the paint. Oden will get a LOT of easy baskets off put backs and dunks. He will do almost all of his scoring in the paint or from the low blocks. When he gets the ball in deep, he will demand double teams, which will create easy, uncontested shot opportunities for his teammates. So, I think the over all team shooting percentages will go up, along with higher team scoring.

As good as I hope Rudy will be, in terms of total impact on all aspects of the game, I have to go with the big guy. There's a reason people get all excited when a guy like Shaq, Duncan and Oden come along, and a reason those guys were consensus No. 1 picks. Dominant big men are just that - they dominate the game. Rudy will be a great scorer and very fun and dynamic to watch, but he won't have much (if any) positive impact on defense (and that's half the game). I'd love to see them finish 1 - 2 in next year's ROY voting (take THAT Michael Beasley).

BNM

Yega1979

I'd expect more out of him than Najera.

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PorterIn2004

Yeah okay, you make a compelling argument, BNM. I still think Fernandez will be a bigger improvement over Jack than Oden will be over Frye, at least initially, but, as much as Jack's occasionally hurt the team with turnovers and firing up bricks, interior defense, interior scoring, and rebounding in general may well be more significant issues. And it's not as if Fernandez won't occasionally turn the ball over or miss shots as well.

c_note

Didn't realize Brent Barry was so sick...I remember the dunk contest though.

BuckW4GM

as good of a rookie season as horford had, i'm expecting oden's rookie season to easily top horford's rookie season. horford wasn't close to the prospect that oden is projecting to be. howard, on the other hand, was an excellent prospect that was closer to oden's level as a prospect. but what's important that's being left out here is that howard came out of h.s. when he put up 12 and 10. oden had a year of competition in college and also a year to get acclimated with his teammates, coaching staffs, and the system that his team is running.

all those are factors in which i believe oden's rookie season will be better than both howard's and horford's. of course, this is all assuming oden will be completely healthy once training camp starts.

as an aside, i'd bet good money oden will average more than 1.5 blk/game.

most definately.

i would like nothing more than to believe in your extremely optimistic view of rudy, but i just can't. kobe bryant-like impact? the mvp of this season? the sure-fire future h.o.f.?

look, it's quite simple for me. i'll readily admit that i haven't seen rudy play much outside of his youtube highlights, so my assessment of him very well could be way off. but we're talking about the 24th pick last year. yes, i know, he has improved quite a bit. i just don't buy that at 23 year old, only over a year, his game has improved so much that he went from the supposedly 24th best prospect to being projected to have a kobe bryant-like impact (offensively) in his rookie season in the nba.

i find this so far stretched that i'm thinking i might be misunderstanding you instead of you actually believing this. even with rudy's supposedly improved game, pritchard himself, only projects rudy to be top 10 in this draft. who in this year's draft is projecting to have a kobe bryant-like impact (offensively) in their rookie season? even beasely won't have that kind of an impact, imo, especially in his rookie season. and he's the near consensus to be the no. 1 pick!

for me, it all comes down to who's the better prospect, and that is far and away greg oden. we are still talking about the no. 1 pick (over durant, the r.o.y., a guy that could have been the no. 1 pick in many other drafts), who many basketball minds believe to be the best big man prospect to come into the nba in around a decade. and rudy? all the euro league championships, individual accolades, the same ones that anthony parker won.

is it possible that rudy will have a bigger impact than oden will in their rookie seasons? sure, anything is possible. but i think it's more likely that outlaw will be better than roy than it is that rudy will have a bigger impact than oden will (next season, or thereafter).

i'll be happy with the stats that you're predicting for rudy, and i think it's realistic. i predict oden's stats to be around 15 pts, 11 rebs, 2.5 blks, shooting in the mid to high 50's in percentage. including the defensive impact that oden will have, i think that's easily better than the impact you're projecting rudy to have.

i also strongly disagree with you that the step up from jack to rudy is hugely greater than the step up of frye to oden. frye is hardly a better player than jack. rudy will be lucky if he ever gets mentioned in the same breath as oden, which i guess you and i already did. to illustrate what i mean, it's more like this:

frye = > jack
rudy >> jack
oden >>>>>>>>>> frye
oden >>>>>>> rudy (even in their rookie seasons)

i hope, and am expecting rudy to be better than jack, but i don't think he'll be a significant upgrade, at least not in his rookie season. comparing frye to oden is laughable, even in oden's rookie season.

with that last sentence, i'm thinking you greatly underestimate the impact oden will have more so than you are overrating rudy.

PorterIn2004

Fair enough, Buck -- and thanks for chiming back in. Do note that in comparing Fernandez to Bryant, it was only on the offensive end. Kobe Bryant is one of the best wing defenders in the league and Fernandez, at least initially, is likely to be one of the worst. That said, the comparison may still be way off, we'll have to see.

As for Frye vs. Jack, I guess we'll just have to agree to disagree. I don't think he makes near the mistakes that Jack makes and I think he's a much more consistent player than Jack is.

As for Oden's impact, BNM made a pretty compelling case as well and I'm starting to come around. Oden might manage to be as good or better than Przybilla at the defensive end and is likely to be as good or better than Frye at the offensive end -- being able to have someone on the floor who's better at both ends than the guys he's replacing is pretty significant.

BuckW4GM

yes, i did note that you were only comparing them on the offensive end. bryant is a great defender (i personally think he's overrated on defense, but whatever), but he's also lethal on offense. you no doubt are well aware that bryant is among the scoring leaders in the league through out his career. he's also very good at creating scoring opportunities for his teammates.

if, at any point in rudy's career, he has half the impact that bryant has on the offensive end, i'd think rudy would be a fine player.

jack does make more mistakes, but he also plays a role that is more proned to make mistakes. that is to say, jack's role on offense was larger than frye's. jack's role on offense was to run the break (which he failed miserably), bring the ball up court, attack the basket, and create scoring opportunities for his teammates. frye's role was basically pick and pop. he failed miserably whenever he went in the post.

as for the consistancy issue, jack is definately more inconsistant, imo. one is consistantly mediocre, one is inconsitantly terrible. i'd rather have neither.

i'm so sure oden's going to be a beast, that anything short of it (excluding injury), i might just quit being a basketball and blazers fan.