Ed O

I mentioned this in the Draft Survivor thread, but the three draft mocks I pay the most attention to all have the same 13 guys in the top 13 spots.

Chad Ford, NBAdraft.net and DraftExpress.com all have the same guys... just jumbled up. (Some are WAY jumbled... they have Augustin going 12, 13, and 6, for example).

I don't recall that sort of consistency for such a large number of players.

Are they informing one another, with one afraid to stray from Web consensus? Or is there really a plateau that drops right there?

It seems almost impossible that at least one player won't shoot into the group on draft day, but I found it interesting and wanted to know what you guys thought.

Ed O.

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"In the end, it all comes down to talent. You can talk all you want about intangibles, I just don't know what that means. Talent makes winners, not intangibles. Can nice guys win? Sure, nice guys can win -- if they're nice guys with a lot of talent. Nice guys with a little talent finish fourth, and nice guys with no talent finish last."

-- Sandy Koufax

drexlersdad

it does seem as though there is a consensus on the top 15 picks or so... alot of quality players in this draft.

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blue32

its a conspiracy

Kmurph

Ed, I think that what it shows is that after Rose, Beasley & Mayo...that the next 10 players or so are roughly on the same level...but the value\NBA potential of each player could vary greatly from team to team...

I think that bodes well for a team like POR, who pride themselves on talent evaluation.....

I do think there is a good chance there will be a surprise or two in there when all is said and done.

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Perfection

As always, someone will get taken by surprise WAY too early, like CV3 with the seventh pick a few years back. This is a really deep draft though, and there are going to be some very talented second rounders.

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PorterIn2004

I could see someone like CDR or Batum climbing somewhat unexpectedly into the top 15 or so. Likewise, there are guys like Love or even Mayo who might drop at least a few slots lower than most seem to have them, creating a small ripple effect. That said, I also think this draft might well have fewer such surprises than usual, partly because of this group of players and partly because I expect the trend will be for there to be fewer surprises generally -- due to all the additional (and ever increasing) sports coverage pretty much all the GMs and draft experts seem to have all the same information.

c_note

It's definitely a "web consensus", with some sites pretty much copying what others are projecting. There is ALWAYS a few players who jump into the lottery that leave you going "What the hell, didn't see that coming..." Usually...
This year's draft seems a lot stronger than last year IMO, so I don't think it will change too much. There should be one surprise though at least.

PorterIn2004

Wow, I think you qualified things and played both sides against the middle even more than I did!

Schilly

I think this draft is one of the deeper drafts in the last several years, but the talent at the top isn't overwhelming.

c_note

GMs will always reach for a project player that websites won't "project" into the lottery, mainly because they don't really belong in the lottery. Potential is worth a lot more than people realize though. I think Batum will actually move up into the top 12 or so. Foreign imports are usually the movers.

ThatBlazerGuy

I personally tink Marreese Speights ends up as the suprise lotto pick.

taterz

There are to many variables to say anything definate after #3. This year a lot of teams are looking to trade up down and all around. I like realgm.com also for their mock draft also by the way.

Public Defender

I think it'll be interesting to see if teams wind up drafting more on need this time around than they have in the past. If y'all are right, and I have no reason to disagree (that this year's draft - after the top 3 - has lots of serviceable players of roughly equal calibre), then it might make sense for a team to "break the tie" between a few relatively comparable prospects based on the position they need the most help at. In previous years, I've tended to agree with GMs who say "Best Player Available" again and again. But if the "BPA" plays a position that they're already three-deep in, and the BPA runner-up plays a position you need a lot more and is really about the same talent-wise, then you go with the position you need. The "BPA" argument I think of being particularly important for the Odens, Jordans, and perhaps, Derrick Roses, who come along. It doesn't mean drafting Kevin Love, when you've already got Channing Frye and LaMarcus Aldridge, but could get Westbrook or Augustin, instead.

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BLAZER PROPHET

Hey, ED! I haven't seen you since I left the Refuge. I talk with ABM all the time and hope things are well.

While those mocks name the same top 13, I'm not so certain that will be the top 13. Some teams draft for need as oppossed to the best player available.. For example, if Portland isn't able to obtain Westbrook or Augustine, I wouldn't be too surprised to see us take Lawson as he's the best PG availabe and had a nice workout with us.