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Public Defender · 08-04-2008, 11:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Stepping Razor

It's interesting, I have almost the opposite impression: I really only see two tiers in the West.

OK, allow me to blur the lines for you a little.

I think we only disagree on a handful of teams. Those that I list as "likely" and "possible." The "longshots" and "locks" I would say would only make (or miss) the playoffs in the event of a catastrophic injury - the same caveat you give above.

So, we're talking, really, about the Suns, Mavericks, Blazers, Warriors, and Nuggets. Of those, I think the Warriors are the least likely to make the playoffs, but that's a team with a lot of young talent (like the Blazers), and a coach who is truly gifted in making things happen. So that's why I kept them in the hunt.

As for the Suns and Mavs, as "likely", rather than "locks" - they just both strike me as teams on their way down. In the NBA, I've been surprised by how quickly teams can sometimes spiral downwards. With Dallas, I think the absence of Avery Johnson will be felt, and they could slip. With the Suns, I think Steve Kerr traded his way into a corner - and with all the vets plus D'Antoni out of the picture, I don't see an ironclad playoff future. But on balance, I see the Mavericks and Suns with significantly better chances of making it than the Warriors.

Then there are the two teams that I feel the most strongly will be fighting for the 8th spot - the Nuggets and Blazers. I think the karma, for whatever reason, is going to be with the Blazers. If chemistry wins playoff races, Portland will have this one hands-down. But, if the Blazers start to feel the pressure - pressure they really haven't felt before - then Denver will steal the berth, because guys like 'Melo and AI have been there before.

That's why I see a little bit more gray than you, I guess.

Stepping Razor · 08-05-2008, 12:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Public Defender

OK, allow me to blur the lines for you a little.

I think we only disagree on a handful of teams. Those that I list as "likely" and "possible." The "longshots" and "locks" I would say would only make (or miss) the playoffs in the event of a catastrophic injury - the same caveat you give above.

So, we're talking, really, about the Suns, Mavericks, Blazers, Warriors, and Nuggets. Of those, I think the Warriors are the least likely to make the playoffs, but that's a team with a lot of young talent (like the Blazers), and a coach who is truly gifted in making things happen. So that's why I kept them in the hunt.

As for the Suns and Mavs, as "likely", rather than "locks" - they just both strike me as teams on their way down. In the NBA, I've been surprised by how quickly teams can sometimes spiral downwards. With Dallas, I think the absence of Avery Johnson will be felt, and they could slip. With the Suns, I think Steve Kerr traded his way into a corner - and with all the vets plus D'Antoni out of the picture, I don't see an ironclad playoff future. But on balance, I see the Mavericks and Suns with significantly better chances of making it than the Warriors.

Then there are the two teams that I feel the most strongly will be fighting for the 8th spot - the Nuggets and Blazers. I think the karma, for whatever reason, is going to be with the Blazers. If chemistry wins playoff races, Portland will have this one hands-down. But, if the Blazers start to feel the pressure - pressure they really haven't felt before - then Denver will steal the berth, because guys like 'Melo and AI have been there before.

That's why I see a little bit more gray than you, I guess.

Yeah, good points all around. I think I just think the Blazers are a bit better and the Nuggets are a bit worse than you do... hence my mental image of greater stratification.

Of course, watch me look like a complete clown when the season rolls around and the Kings win 50 games or something...

As for the Nuggets, I really think they're going to miss Camby a lot and will backslide considerably. I wouldn't be surprised to see that team pull the plug and deal either AI or Melo for rebuilding pieces at the trade deadline. I think they will finish no better than 10th. But maybe I'm undersetimating them.

**Oldmangrouch** · 08-05-2008, 12:58 AM

One thing to keep in mind: the weaknesses of the Mavs, Suns, Nugs, and Warriors all tend to manifest on the defensive end. Over the course of the regular season, a good offense can mask a flawed defense. It is only in the play-offs that the balance tends to shift to the defense.

**HKF** · 08-05-2008, 01:11 AM

Not sure why people are hating on the Kings. With Artest gone as a distraction, look for Theus to coach up em to another near 40 win season.

**STOMP** · 08-05-2008, 08:03 AM

1. Hornets
2. Rockets
3. Lakers
4. Blazers
5. Jazz
6. Suns
7. Spurs
8. Mavs

STOMP

LittleAlex · 08-05-2008, 12:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ballscientist

Nuggets have fantastic 4 - Melo, AI, K-Mart and Nene

and JR Smith

Melo + AI = 40% of West all-star starters, and they are healthy. I am not surprised if they win 60 games.

K-Mart is injury prone and very over-rated. Nene has yet to play a full season and is not a proven post player. JR Smith had a good playoffs, but is irratic and immature. Melo can score the with the best, but really doesn't do anything to make his teammates better. AI is a great player, but he is on the downside of his career and has the same faults as Melo.

Plus, it is Karl's 4th or 5th year as coach. Just about the time his teams implode. Denver is in pretty bad shape over all. 60 wins would be miracle. 45 wins is more likely, and that doesn't get them into the playoffs. I really don't see them as a better team then Portland.

rocketeer · 08-05-2008, 02:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HKF

Not sure why people are hating on the Kings. With Artest gone as a distraction, look for Theus to coach up em to another near 40 win season.

if the kings win 40 games, theus is the best coach in the league.

that kings team really just doesn't have all that much talent. martin, garcia, and salmons is a nice trio at the 2/3 positions but that's really pretty much all they have going for them.

MrJayremmie · 08-05-2008, 02:46 PM

1. Lakers - 61
2. Hornets - 59
3. Rockets - 57
4. Jazz - 56
5. Spurs - 54
6. Suns - 53
7. Mavericks - 50
8. Blazers - 48
9. Nuggets - 47
10. Warriors - 47
11. Clippers - 45
12. Kings - 38
13. Memphis - 30
14. OKC - 27
15. Minnesota - 24

**KingSpeed** · 08-05-2008, 08:34 PM

1. Portland
2. San Antonio
3. New Orleans
4. Houston
5. L.A. Lakers
6. Utah
7. Phoenix
8. Denver
9. Minnesota
10. L.A. Clippers
11. Dallas
12. Memphis
13. Golden State
14. Sacramento
15. OKC

SixPack · 08-05-2008, 08:46 PM

1) San Antonio - I think they will re-group to win it all again this year. People forget they never won back to back titles.

2) New Orleans - Chris Paul is that dam good and one more year of experience could put them over the top.

3) LA Lakers - If Bynum comes back healthy, they might be even better than last year.

4) Houston - Artest is a huge addition and if he can co-exist with Yao Ming, they have a chance to win the title.

5) Utah - They still need another piece to compete for a title, but they are solid all around.

6) Phoenix - This is Phoenix's last chance before Shaq retires. Unfortunately, Shaq is old and tired.

7) Dallas - One full year with Kidd and Nowitzki might suprises some people. They still have some talent but Carlisle gets the most out of his players.

8) Denver - They will have Iverson and Anthony. If Nene comes back strong, watch out, they could be a dark horse.

I think Portland can compete for the 7th and 8th spots but I think their still a year away.

MARIS61 · 08-05-2008, 10:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rocketeer

if the kings win 40 games, theus is the best coach in the league.

Well, anyone who watched New York play last season knows he's not (or wasn't) the worst.

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