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For 2003-04, here are my projections for the luxury tax threshold and cliff provision threshold. Projections for 2004-05 are in parentheses.
Preferred Estimate
Luxury Tax Threshold: $55.4 million ($59.6 million)
Cliff Provision Threshold: $59.1 million ($63.3 million)
High BRI Estimate - the NBPA estimate and the one most often mentioned in the press
Luxury Tax Threshold: $56.7 million ($62.3 million)
Cliff Provision Threshold: $60.6 million ($66.1 million)
Low BRI Estimate
Luxury Tax Threshold: $54.1 million ($56.8 million)
Cliff Provision Threshold: $57.8 million ($60.3 million)
As some of you know, in some earlier threads I had made some predictions about the likelihood of the luxury tax taking effect in 2003-04 and 2004-05. I have since updated those predictions.
For a variety of reasons, I am holding off on making those predictions known until sometime in September.
In the meantime, let me just say that assuming that the luxury tax will take effect both this year and next may not be the greatest assumption.
Last edited by Dan Rosenbaum : 08-04-2003 at 06:00 PM.
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2003 Complete Free Agent Analysis
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