Dan Rosenbaum

In response to a recent e-mail from a sportswriter, I answered the question of who is likely to have more than the Mid-Level Exception (MLE) available next summer. (By the way, the MLE is likely to be worth about $4.9 million again next summer.) Here was my answer.

I am estimating the salary cap to be between $43.0 and $46.7 million for 2004-05 with my preferred estimate being at $44.9 million.

• Charlotte probably will be able to offer more than the MLE.
• Cleveland is at $38.1 million before their draft pick if they renounce Miles, so they are very unlikely to have more than the MLE to offer.
• Denver is at $27.6 million before draft picks, assuming that Camby exercises his $7.75 million player option.
• Detroit is at $37.7 million before their draft pick, but they would have to renounce Okur, Rebraca, Sura, etc. I suspect also that there would be a cap hold for Delfino, so effectivly Detroit is most likely looking at just being able to offer the MLE.
• Golden State is at $43.9 million before their draft pick, so if Van Exel ($12.8 million) or Dampier ($8.1 million) do not exercise their player options and Golden State renounces Foyle, Golden State may have more than the MLE to offer.
• Los Angeles Clippers are at $29.2 million before their draft pick, but with the cap holds, they likely will not be able to sign a player from another team for more than the MLE until they clear some of the cap holds (through signings or renouncings) for Richardson, Dooling, and Jaric.
• Miami is at $42.2 million with just six players (Jones, Grant, Odom, Butler, Wade, and Allen) and thus without trades, they will not be able to offer more than the MLE.
• San Antonio is at $31.4 million before their draft pick if they do not pick up the team options for Horry ($4.95 million) and Brown ($0.7 million). Note also that Turkoglu will count for $6 million against the salary until he is signed or renounced, which means that the Spurs might need to renounce him in order to clear enough space for Ginobili. Also note that Bowen has a $4 million player option.
• Utah is at $10.3 million before draft picks. They have a few of their own players to re-sign, but they obviously will be a major player in next summer's free agent market.
• Washington is at $40.6 million before their draft pick. They would also need to renounce Etan Thomas, so for all intensive purposes they will have nothing more than the MLE.

Consequently, the only teams likely to have more than the MLE to offer someone other than their own player are Charlotte, Denver, Utah, and the Clippers. And depending on what the Clippers do with their own free agents, they may not be able to offer more than the MLE.

Now one caveat is that Charlotte could select players from the expansion draft that open up some salary cap room for some of these teams. However, for that to happen, I suspect these teams will have to bribe Charlotte with draft picks, cash, etc., so I doubt if the expansion draft will bring a lot more teams under the salary cap.

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MightyReds2020

So barring a trade. Utah Jazz is very likely the only team with the ability to offer the max? That's scarry considered how they built their roster although there isn't any players that worth the max next summer unless Kobe opts out.

Storyteller

Depending on the uncertainties with the draft picks (Will SA get Phoenix's 2004 pick for the Barbosa trade? At what slot(s) will Phoenix draft?), you might be able to add the Suns to this list now.

Storyteller

And maybe now add Atlanta to this list.

Lusty RaRue

Not official but it doesn't look like SA will get the Sun 2004 pick.

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The above post is just my stupid opinion(JMSO). Corrections requested/ comments welcomed.
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''I told Jamal the situation is totally different,'' Paxson said. ''When Jay was selected with the second pick of the draft, all expectations were that he was going to be the starter.
''That's not the case this time around. Kirk's a complimentary player, although I do believe he'll be a starter eventually in this league.''

Storyteller

Thanks for the link, Lusty!

Storyteller

This would indicate that the third year on (now-released) Wang Zhi-Zhi's contract was not guaranteed. Is this true?