FJ_of _Rockaway

This is an excerpt from a Bulls thread on whether we can still pull of a trade and Rashard was brought up . One of the posters mentioned that the only way to foster it would be to include ERob. Because of BYC issues the only realistic player mix that could make it work was Fizer, Crawford and ERob for Rashard and Potapenko ( when he becomes eligible to be dealt again )

Anyway , I have followed the Rashard Lewis negotiations very closely and the content of my reply to LoaKhoet below explains why IMO why nothing has happened yet and why Rashard is fresh out of options.

I think he will resign because the time to make good on your threat of walking has long passed and Rashard is all dressed up with no place to go

But I challenged the Seattle Times's Percy Allen which comes out in the text of this thread as I disagree quite strongly that the Supes will exceed the mooted L Tax limit to resign Rashard - they don't need to

Here it is


[q]
Originally posted by LoaKhoet!
This trade will never happen. Krauz will not give Lewis $90M over 7 years. $70 over 7 years is decent which i think Krauz may be willing to swallow. The deal can be done if and only if Sonics are will to take ERob along. [/q]


A deal could still work but would be even more unlikely than before

For ERob to be thrown into the mix they would have to throw a salary like Potapenko back to make it work

And further , given that the whole idea of trading Lewis would be to give surety in the avoidance of paying the luxury tax - and given that even with ERob's low market value currently , the talent differential between Potapenko and ERob is extreme - they would need to give up someone like Joseph Forte or a protected future 1st round pick

But if we insisted upon Joseph Forte to be thrown into the deal - potentially an ideal triangle guard , why the hell did we let AJ Guyton walk ??

Maybe the future first round pick is a better way to go

Anyway ...

Fizer
Crawford
ERob

= $10.8M in salary to Seattle

Lewis @ $7M starting ( with 12.5% raises = 7 years at $71.7M )
Potapenko @ $5.2M

= $12.2M coming back to Chicago

Resulting in $1.4M saving in salary which gives them 13 players at $50.4M as opposed to 12 players at $51.8M with Rashard shown as being on the books for his player's option at $5M .

Anything more than the $5.2M which takes them up to a neat $52M and Rashard himself over the BYC threshhold puts them fairly and squarely into luxury tax land and dollar for dollar penalties - which , for Rashard at $7M starting could mean $2M in penalties for the Supes

But this is beer money compared to the real cost, which is really an opportunity cost - being the escrow refund/distribution back to the franchise owners . This figure varies as to what it may be but it could in the vicinity of around $16M to $20M per franchise that is under which gets directly offset against payroll cost

Percy Allen from the Seattle Times reported a few days ago that the Supes are willing to exceed to the luxury tax limit to resign Rashard however

Being an economic rationalist though , I challenged him on his assertion and am still waiting on a reply . This is what I had to say to him :

Percy

Is this an indisputable fact?

Because if it is it means the Supes could forfeit an economic benefit in the vicinity of $18M by exceeding the L Tax to resign Rashard to his contract that I assume would start off between $6M - $7M this year

It would appear that this benefit forfeited would be the average benefit returned to owners from the escrow fund of players salaries ( 10% of total salary ) who manage to stay under the L Tax limit

I mean I know Shard is good but let's say you sign him and he takes you over the limit by $2M if you sign him to a contact starting at $7M ( on my numbers they can only afford to have him starting at $5M to stay under the projected limit at its max of $52M ) Anyway... his $7M is really $9M - which is pre L Tax days he may have got .. BUT if he tips you over the limit and the Supes forfeit say $18M in net payroll cost benefit , is Shard really worth $27M next year ? ( $9M effective cost with dollar for dollar penalty added to base + $18M economic cost )

Because of this 'economic cost" issue of escrow refund I would see this as the single biggest reason why no deal has been worked out with Rashard yet when the most he can get elsewhere in the league ( outside of a sign and trade ) is the mid level exception at $4.5M -which is $100K more than he earned last year - so why would he bother . Additionally he would have to stay with that team for 3 years to get his bird rights back under the CBA.

Further , it is very hard to sign and trade Rashard - almost impossible on his own because if he signs on for more than $5.2M elsewhere he becomes a Base Year Compensation player under the CBA and this means that the Supes could accept up to $5.2M for him in returning player contracts - but the new nominal amount of his starting contract needs to be taken in full by the new team - an they must be under the salary cap limit to do it - which means the only teams that had a capability of doing a sign and trade were Washington , Chicago and the LA Clippers.

In so far as the Clippers are concerned they did not need to sign and trade anyone because they could have just paid him the max or near max outright without giving any players back - which leaves Chicago and Washington - both of who would have had around $4M and $6M respectively in cap room if we both had of renounced our free agents and taken the cap room instead of relying on the exceptions to sign free agents. Washington effectively ended this when they used the mid level exception to sign Larry Hughes

This left Chicago on it own that could have sent Jamal Crawford and Marcus Fizer - $5M in salary - renounced our free agents to have $4M approx in uncontested cap - thereby having $9M in salary to pay Rashard starting at say $7M . That would have left us with 9 players at say $37M - with $3M to spread against a minimum of 3 roster spots - and this cost would have been made up of our 2nd round picks Lonny Baxter and Roger Mason Jr and our free agent signing at $1.4M - Corie Blount.

We (my team is Chi ) could have given the Supes young talent where they need young talent ( PF and PG - I can't see Payton coming back ) and the Supes could have positioned themselves in free agency in 2003 with around $15M to spend ( if Glove signed elsewhere and all free agents were renounced ) and with a young nucleus in place of

James and Booth at Center
Fizer at PF
Radmanovic at SF
Mason at SG
Crawford at PG

Plus you would likely have a lottery pick to add to this mix next summer.

OR ....

It would have made sense to deal Payton , Booth and Barry and taken back Othella Harrington , Charlie Ward and Spree . Chicago could have sent Eddie Robinson to New York and we would have received back Brent Barry

Seattle would have looled like :

James/Potapenko/Drobjnak
Fizer/Harrington
Sprewell/Radmanovic
Mason/Forte
Andersen/Crawford/Ward

but would have saved around $4M in salary this year which is the trade exception differential in what it gives out and what comes back in - rebuilding on the fly and young talent acquired and productive vets in Ward Harrington and Sprewell - plus a probable decent lottery position to add to the mix in 2003 , plus the full mid level exception at say $4.5M to add a free agent or two to complement the young core / vets. The point is , Seattle would have definately avoided the Luxury tax dilemna this year

If Glove was dealt and put on a winner - no *****in - if Shard had his money and the Supes facilitated a sign and trade - no *****in

If the Supes did nothing and let Shard walk for the exception to say Dallas - there's *****in from Shard's camp - they get Glove to play out his contract without the intent of giving the Glove his love on payday next summer - the Glove uses Shard's situation to turn up the heat on the Supes in free agency and would have him *****in at them all year - all of which is unproductive in the Supes trying to win and would destine them for the lottery anyway if they are resigned to letting Glove go.

The Supes have to face facts that they are one of four teams vying for two playoff spots ( Clips, Jazz, Rockets being the other three ) and if Glove is probably gone by next summer and they are at best going to be a first round play off team at best and tell Glove to take the Shove , then why would they absorb an overall effective hit of $27M by resigning Shard when they are nowhere near being a true contender with or without Rashard?

Its as simple ( or should be ) as hardcore economic rationalism

By investigating / creating a type of trading scenario like this when it presented itself they had the opportunity to sidestep the luxury tax dilemna/potential costs and rebuilt on the fly by being courageous enough to admit that they need to move forward without Glove and that Shard and Brent Barry are going to make you a marginal playoff team at best for the next several seasons with the young up and coming teams and entrenched power bases that are much better structured ( in terms of their talent ) out West.

Put bluntly, the Clips and the Rockets have all their pieces to be big for a very long time and will replace the Supes and Jazz 's place in the top 8 teams - the others being the Lakers, Kings, Mavs, Blazers, Wolves and Spurs.

With Glove and Booth , New York could have looked like :

Thomas/ Booth/ Doleac
McDyess / Weatherspoon/Knight
E.Robinson/Andersen
Houston/Postell
Payton/Eisley/F.Williams

That's a team that's ready to compete out East now with McDyess and Robinson being healthy - probably an Eastern Conference contender that I reckon would slug it out with the Nets - the battle of the Hudson

Rashard's situation in Chicago would have looked like this :

Curry/Blount/Bagaric
Chandler/ Baxter
Lewis/Barry
Rose/ Hassell/ Hoiberg
Jay Williams/Roger Mason Jr / Kevin Ollie ( FA target )

Curry, Chandler, Lewis , Rose and Jay Williams could have made some serious noise in the East within 3 years ... and for a long time to come after that - Rashard being the perfect long range threat to team with Jay Williams from down town - to the double teams that Eddy Curry and Tyson Chandler will ultimately bring . Plus he would have got long term security with money in big media market Chicago which is healthy for the endorsement dollar .

In short if Chicago were massaged to take on Lewis, Lewis could have got a 7 year $72M contract .

But , all this woulda , coulda , shoulda would have had a hard time getting off the ground as I imagine the Supes would have thought too linear in terms of what they thought was fair and reasonable with what they were getting back for Rashard . In this regard Fizer and Crawford , - if they were ever seriously offered would have been thought of as insufficient ( without other benefits being considered as I have outlined to you ) and that's what would have stopped it right there

As it is we did not renounce our free agents - we took the exceptions and signed Blount and Marshall which means that Rashard has to take less money to leave Seattle and hope that at some future point someone will pay him what he is worth - and, is he not in a mess in the first place because he trusted that his payday would come now two years ago when he took less money to stay in Seattle?

In an environment when "non difference maker" salaries are shrinking and will continue to shrink , there can be no realistic comfort for Rashard to take that he will get his payday in a another couple of years down the track

The reality is ( as I see it from a negotiating tactic point of view ) the Supes do not have to exceed the luxury tax to sign him . They can afford to keep him starting at around $5M - $5.5M starting because this is more than he will make anywhere else and if he yields to taking less to get more later as he did a couple of years ago - this is heavy baggage to have him carrying around with what happened to him 2 years ago which is the direct cause of the mess he is in now.

If Rashard is smart he will know its a zero sum game where he can only come out on the short end .

What he should do - is take his medicine with the Supes and insist upon a 2 year deal with an opt out clause next summer - so that he has two shots at free agency and cashing in over the next two years.

He then should play his *** off and get his value so high that it is impossible to ignore him when he eventually comes back to free agency whether it be in 2003 or in 2004.

And that is how he should maximise his payday

Mark Hayes

If I hear back from him I will post his response - but I included this email here as it addresses RealFan's question as to what is happening with him and why he has not resigned .

The fact is the Supes can stand on the digs and offer him a 7 year $52M contract and lace it with incentives to placate he and his agent, save around $18M in penalties this year and save a further $20M in salary costs over the next 7 years - the difference between maybe what his market worth contract is at ( say $72M ) to what he will likely get ($52M )

So the question I asked Percy was , was Rashard worth an effective cost of $27M this season if he was signed at a nominal $7M starting - but the question needs to be looked at in a different way in terms of cost saving

If they sign him for 7 years at $52M and he starts at $5M and the Supes avoid the luxury tax . The Supes will save/procure say $20M next season in payroll offset in excrow refunds. But they will also save a further $20M over the term of the contract by using the luxury tax as an excuse to keep his contract artificially low - and possibly ( IMO ) $20M under what he is probably realistically worth and entitled to.

So the real cost benefit for the Supes in playing hard ball with Rashard is possibly a $40M saving over 7 years to have his services if Rashard and his agent can be intimidated into a 7 year $52M deal.

What's happening in this case example at the moment is Capitalist Darwinism at its finest

Take your medicine like a man Rashard

robyg1974

Hey, is it not possible for Rashard Lewis to re-sign with the Sonics for ONE year, and re-enter the free agent market next summer? Say, 1 year, $5.5 mil?

Or maybe to a 3 year extension? Say, 3 years, $18 mil?

In other words, why are the only two alternatives being presented here are a) 3 years with somebody besides the Sonics for the mid-level exception, and b) 7 years with the Sonics?

By the way, nobody wants Eddie Robinson, you know that, right? And Marcus Fizer is a tweener, you know that, too, right? And Jamal Crawford isn't exactly yr classic point guard, he's a great shooter, but his assist-to-turnover ratio is TERRIBLE. In other words, I don't see the Sonics trading Rashard Lewis for that crap.

__________________
Roby G.

FJ_of _Rockaway

In other words...

I would take ERob over Potapenky any day of the week and twice on Sundays .. and today is Sunday

In other words....

I personally would not give up Fizer and Crawford for Rashard myself as I believe the sum of the parts are worth more than what Rashard would bring . They individually may not be as refined as Rashard yet but the skill bases of their games are more diverse and offer Chicago more offensive options than what Rashard does.

In other words ...

My email to Percy Allen which is contained in my post recommends that Rashard should sign a 2 year deal with an opt out clause next summer and for the fact that no deal has been signed yet maybe says to me that the Sonics are not offering a short term deal and see this as an arbitraging opportunity to tie him up for low cost over term

And if this is the case and they are trying to force his hand then he really should just walk - but for the fact that he has not already suggests he is fresh out of options