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**HKF** · 12-12-2003, 11:46 AM

With the season being so unpredictable, I have already thrown away my preseason projections and decided to head right over to my revised predictions.

I will rank the order of the teams and then I will rank how I think the Mid-Con Tournament will go.

We can do this again at the end of the conference season and see how close we were and if the teams who we picked were in the right spot, right before the Conference Tournament.

1. Oakland
2. Valparaiso
3. UMKC
4. IUPUI
5. Oral Roberts
6. Centenary
7. Southern Utah
8. Western Illinois
9. Chicago State

Quarterfinals
1. Oakland vs. 8. Western Illinois
4. IUPUI vs. 5. Oral Roberts
3. UMKC vs. 6. Centenary
2. Valparaiso vs. 7. Southern Utah

Any thoughts or opinions? How do you see the season shaking out?

Stl VU Fan · 12-12-2003, 12:42 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by GQStar10!
I will rank the order of the teams and then I will rank how I think the Mid-Con Tournament will go....

First Round
8. Western Illinois vs. 9. Chicago State

I thought only the top 8 teams would be in the tourney and the 9th team would have to sit out.

Quote:

Any thoughts or opinions? How do you see the season shaking out?

I am going to try my best to respond with my own impressions as soon as I get some time to think about it. Before Christmas, I promise.

**HKF** · 12-12-2003, 12:45 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Stl VU Fan!

I thought only the top 8 teams would be in the tourney and the 9th team would have to sit out.

I am going to try my best to respond with my own impressions as soon as I get some time to think about it. Before Christmas, I promise.

I don't know if it is only the top 8, but you are probably right.

As for getting those predictions out by Christmas, that works too.

Valpo Terry · 12-13-2003, 12:35 PM

The Mid-Con won't have to pay for Chicago State to go to Kansas City and it takes away the easy first round game that the #1 seed got playing Chicago State. I suppose it gives the Cougars much more incentive to get better sooner.

Stl VU Fan · 01-08-2004, 11:34 PM

OK, it's after Christmas, so I didn't exactly keep my promise

1. IUPUI (2-0)

This team seems to be taking winning in stride, and doing so without Odell Bradley. It's not in the bag - they didn't exactly dominate the Leathernecks at home, but they waltzed in the ARC like they owned the place.

2. Oral Roberts (3-0)

They would be number 1 if not for injuries to LSG and Ralph Charles, but they may weather those as well as IUPUI has weathered the loss of Odell Bradley, if Jonathan Bluitt can continue to play 35 productive minutes a game and Green and Tutt can continue to turn heads with their performance. Josh Atkinson seems to be doing well too.

3. Valparaiso (1-2)

There is no explaining this team, and with Ron Howard and Moussa Mbaye out for awhile, I may have to drop them, but free throw shooting has been dramatically improved of late, Dan Oppland is beginning to make his own play for Player of the Year. I don't think he'll get it or deserve it, but other teams better be ready to focus on shutting him down. Berdiel has made improvements and is a force to reckon with. Gomes is consistent on the boards but struggling on offense. Nieves' mojo has gone south for the winter; if this were baseball he'd be Steve Blass.

4. Oakland (1-2)

This team is also hard to figure out. They have so much talent, and yet a rebuilding Valpo was able to continue its dominance over the Grizzlies, and Chicago State, the doormat of the league, has managed to beat them. Helms is struggling and he's taking up his usual amount of court time doing it, and their depth is questionable after being worn down by Valpo. They won't win at the ARC this year because although they might get better by then, so will Valpo.

5. UMKC (2-1)

Not very deep, Watson is worse than Helms in terms of shooting efficiency, and after blowing out KSU only to be manhandled by ORU, they went the extra mile to hand the game to Valpo, just barely surviving a scare at the end to hold on for a 1 point victory. This may be the most wildly inconsistent team in the conference.

6. Centenary

From here on out, my picks are really tentative. I don't know anything about this time, other then they have a high scorer, but any team that can beat SUU in Cedar City is going to be in the tournament in KC in March.

7. Southern Utah

Bill Evans will find some way to get his team to KC in March, but it looks like they will struggle again through the conference schedule. They had ORU and Centenary at home and couldn't beat either one, getting manhandled by ORU.

8. Western Illinois

They now have a coach who "cares" and shows some "fire", or I'd bet on Chicago State beating them out for the 8 seed. They have battled Oakland and IUPUI very well, but they still have a long way to go in rebuilding what used to be one of the top teams of the conference.

9. Chicago State

Chicago State is improved overr last year, and their win over Oakland is testament to that, but I don't see them climbing out of the cellar just yet. I would be pleased to be proved wrong.

Quarterfinals
1. IUPUI beats 8. Western Illinois
4. Oakland loses to 5. UMKC
3. Valpo beats 6. Centenary
2. ORU beats 7. Southern Utah

Semifinals
1. IUPUI beats 5. UMKC
2. ORU beats 3. Valpo

Finals

2. ORU beats 1. IUPUI

I'll come back later and edit this post as the season progresses, because I have a feeling my opinions will change significantly. This is going to be an interesting season.

Stl VU Fan · 01-17-2004, 01:41 PM

I decided to leave my original post so I can look back later and see how wrong I was.

1. Oral Roberts (5-0)

Caleb Green is the real thing, and ORU is playing like a team and starting to really taste it. Their refusal to play zone may have been one of the reasons they almost lost to Valpo at home. The Crusaders struggle against the zone defense. Oakland is probably the same way. A zone defense is a good thing to have in your arsenal in this conference. Other than that, ORU is primed to win the conference title and get the #1 seed.

2. IUPUI (3-1)

The only easy win they've had for sure is at the ARC My guess is they didn't have a great deal of trouble with WIU at home, but they have now struggled with Oakland at the O'Rena and against Valpo at home, winning the former in OT but losing the latter by 4. They also proved fallible from behind the arc (1-17).

3. UMKC (4-1)

The Roos find themselves in 2nd place, and Watson is showing signs of remembering once in awhile that he has teammates. They haven't yet played IUPUI, and they lost by 20 to ORU in KC. But they are a contender and have a 4-game winning streak.

4. Valparaiso (2-3)

Valpo is no longer King of the Hill, though they probably still have a bullseye on their back for some teams. This year's Crusaders are looking up at first place and primarily interested in preparing for March. 3 straight nail-biters have revealed the heart of this team after all. They do need to reclaim their home court advantage, however, against a Leatherneck squad starving for a win. Moreover they need to show that they are not taking any team in this conference for granted. A convincing win against WIU would be a step in the right direction. 3-pt shooting is up a bit, as is FT shooting. Most importantly, this team believes in itself again.

5. Oakland (1-4)

What is going on with this team? All signs point to a lack of true point guard and a lack of team cohesiveness. They are in a funk. They can't even beat Southern Utah at home. The Grizzlies need to get back into the winning groove, or they could be contending for the basement of this conference.

6. Centenary (2-2)

The Gents aren't doing too badly in their first season in the Mid-Con. They weren't blown out by ORU and they battled UMKC, both away games for them. They are well coached and they have a top scorer of their own. They will find their way to KC in March.

7. Chicago State (2-2)

Beating Oakland at home and SUU in Cedar City just about qualifies as a signature event. It is a tenuous position, and their season can certainly return to the dumps, but at the moment, the Cougars don't feel like the doormat of the conference anymore, and anyone who treats them that way is setting themselves up for a shock.

8. Southern Utah (1-3)

The Thunderbirds have not defended their home court, but they battled Oakland at the O'Rena and escaped with a victory. They still need to improve to stay out of 9th place.

9. Western Illinois (0-4)

Getting blown out by UMKC and ORU does not bode well. The Leathernecks still have a ways to go to gain admission to Kemper Arena in March.

Quarterfinals
1. ORU beats 8. Southern Utah
4. Valpo beats 5. Oakland
3. UMKC loses to 6. Centenary
2. IUPUI beats 7. Chicago State

Semifinals
1. ORU beats 4. Valpo
2. IUPUI beats 6. Centenary

Finals

1. ORU beats 2. IUPUI

indaface · 01-17-2004, 09:21 PM

Keep revising your picks there partner...UMKC is in the driver's seat right now. With the ORU loss to Chi State today, the conference is wide open. Obviously you haven't seen UMKC play since you are still dogging on Watson. Michael is playing his role really well this season because he has 4 other teammates who can score, he does not need to be "the man" every game. He'll take the ball at crunch time, that's what your senior does...but his supporting cast is pretty strong even though the bench is short.

Stl VU Fan · 01-21-2004, 01:33 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by indaface!
Keep revising your picks there partner...UMKC is in the driver's seat right now. With the ORU loss to Chi State today, the conference is wide open. Obviously you haven't seen UMKC play since you are still dogging on Watson. Michael is playing his role really well this season because he has 4 other teammates who can score, he does not need to be "the man" every game. He'll take the ball at crunch time, that's what your senior does...but his supporting cast is pretty strong even though the bench is short.

I could have sworn I responded to this once already, but either I failed to hit the Submit button or it didn't go through.

Please reread my post. I did NOT dog Watson, I actually gave him a prop or two. I do however feel justified with a wait-and-see position on Watson. I don't think he really showed his team-first attitude in our game until the second half, though it is possible I am wrong about that. By the way, no, I haven't seen him play, I'm going by the impressions of those who did see him play. I will see him on the 14th of Feb. and on one of the Mid-Con games of the week. At any rate, most Mid-Con media folk agree that Watson ruined Michael Jackson's career with his ball-hogging, so that is another reason for me to be a little hesitant. I think he's better than Helms in this regard, I'll give you that much.

Stl VU Fan · 01-31-2004, 01:53 PM

I figured it was time to take another whack at predicting the final standings and the tournament. Some of these positions are bordering on "gimmes" perhaps.

1. Oral Roberts (6-2)

Ralph Charles is due back from injury soon. Endurance down the stretch will be key. Only 7 players played the majority of the 3 OT titanic struggle with IUPUI, and one of the challenges the Golden Eagles face down the stretch is having enough gas in the tank to finish strong. If they can, they figure to be in the driver's seat for the #1 seed, having both IUPUI and UMKC at home, where they have a huge homecourt advantage.

2. IUPUI (6-2)

Odell Bradley is back with a vengeance from his injury. He was out of sight against ORU, literally willing his team to win. A loss to Southern Utah and a near loss to Chicago State - both at home - are chinks in their armor, but they are still poised to challenge ORU for the title.

3. Valparaiso (6-3)

The homecourt has been reclaimed. After a good win at IUPUI, the next 4 home games - WIU, CC, SUU, and Oakland - all saw Valpo build monster leads and then successfully hold off a serious challenge down the stretch. This team is not strong enough to blow anybody out, but they have figured out how handle themselves when the pressure is on. Team chemistry is up, Roberto Nieves has found his groove again, and confidence is building. On the downside, a rash of injuries has forced the aged Greg Tonagel to lace 'em up again. Ron Howard (knee), Seth Colclasure (concussion), and Jimmie Miles (ankle) have left the backcourt somewhat depleted. The good news is that Greg managed to play 17 quality productive minutes as VU ran its record against Oakland to 12-0. What shape he was in the next day is unknown. They still have to travel to the Centrum as well as CC, and they still have a home-and-away with surprising Chicago State. The remaining schedule is not that easy, but this team has the courage to breathe down the necks of the Jags and the Golden Eagles, and will be primed for the tournament in KC.

4. Centenary (4-3)

The Gents continue to hold their own, destroying Oakland at home, beating WIU at Western Hall, and (kudos!) on the side beating the Houston Cougars on the road. Against Valpo, Andrew Wisniewski scored 32, but the team ran out of gas down the stretch, or they would have a 4 game winning streak. The remaining schedule has them home for 6 and away for 3. They will probably lose at Oakland and IUPUI, but they may pull home upsets against ORU and Valpo. The Gents are not playing to make the tournament. They are playing for a higher seed at the tournament.

5. Chicago State (4-4)

It is official. CSU is no longer the doormat of the conference. A huge upset of ORU at home, a convincing victory over WIU at Western Hall, and a close loss at IUPUI establish CSU as a bone fide troublemaker in the conference. They finally showed their weakness against Oakland today, losing by 17, though the game was much closer than that until the final minutes. Their full court press was too porous, allowing Oakland numerous fast break points, and they committed too many turnovers, but Kevin Jones has found a winning formula at Chicago State and they still have 5 home games left. It is very doubtful that they will be left behind in March, and they by no means have the 8th seed locked up as in past years.

6. Oakland (3-7)

With a convincing win today over Chicago State, the Golden Grizzlies have shown that they are back on track. It is too late to contend for the title, but they may be primed to score their first tourney victory and make some noise in March. They easily handled UMKC, turned a 19-pt deficit at Valpo into a nail-biter at the end, and tamed the Chicago State Cougars. Through it all, Helms has stepped up his play, playing more under control and not forcing things as much. He impressed Valpo critics at the ARC with his heady play, especially late in the game with 4 fouls. Most of their remaining games are on the road, so it is going to be a tough road, but it appears they will make the tournament and that is all that matters.

7. UMKC (4-4)

UMKC has now dropped back to the middle of the pack. They were unable to hold serve against the Jags at Hale Arena, and then they were unlucky enough to witness the revival of Oakland at the O'Rena. They followed this by handing Southern Utah its first home victory of the conference season. In the midst of this, Watson has a problem with his hand, and they next visit the Mabee Center, a place filled with people who remember last year's loss to the Roos. It is a crucial juncture in the season for UMKC. Watson scored 27 the game after his injury, so it's not hampering him too much. On the other hand, their rotation is only 7 deep, and one of the last 3 losses they only used 6 players for the bulk of the minutes. They look like a middle of the pack finisher.

8. Southern Utah (3-5)

It took them a long time in conference to finally defend their home court, but against UMKC they finally did. They also lost in OT at Western Hall, even as they beat the Jags at IUPUI. SUU is in good position to make the tournament, though this is not yet a lock, but they look headed for the 8 seed, depending on how the remainder of the season plays out for them and Oakland.

9. Western Illinois (1-7)

Suspensions to key players have not made it easy for WIU to shed its weakling image. They finally got their first conference win against Southern Utah, but they are still struggling for viability. Without a huge turnaround, they will be left behind in March.

Quarterfinals
1. ORU beats 8. Southern Utah
4. Centenary beats 5. Chicago State
3. Valpo beats 6. Oakland
2. IUPUI beats 7. UMKC

Semifinals
1. ORU beats 4. Centenary
2. IUPUI loses to 3. Valpo

Finals

1. ORU loses to 3. Valpo

In the interrest of full disclosure, that championship game is really too close to call. I'm voting with my heart rather than my head.

Stl VU Fan · 02-09-2004, 12:17 PM

By this point, the prediction part of this is not all that special anymore, since the end is in sight.

1. IUPUI (8-3)

The Jags prevailed a second time against ORU, this time at the Mabee Center, and they also survived The Centrum to avenge an earlier lost to SUU. The entire Mid-Con is still winless in the Gold Dome, including the Jags, but they came close. Odell Bradley is making a serious bid for player of the year. With home games against OU(w), CC(l), and UMKC(l), and away games against WIU(w) and CSU(w), I predict a final record of 11-5.

1. Valparaiso (8-4)

The Crusaders just barely had enough to hold of WIU in OT, and sucked it up after a heartbreaking loss to CC, beating CSU on their home court. The 3-pt. shooting has tapered off a bit and injuries still affect the rotation, but take notice Mid-Con: Greg Tonagel is back to annoy you for one last half-season. Like Mark Stricker last year, Greg has stepped in to fill the shortage at the guard position, and after 4 games, his impact on the court has been significant. It doesn't show up much in the box score, but his coming off the bench has been a welcome sight. With home games against ORU(w), UMKC(w), and CSU(w), and an away game against SUU(l), I predict a final record of 11-5.

1. Centenary (7-3)

Home wins against IUPUI and VU and nail-biting victory at WIU have further solidified this team's grand entrance into the conference. The home victories did not come easy, and they are 2-3 on the road, but there's no game left they can't win. With home games against ORU(w), UMKC(l), and SUU(w), and away games against IUPUI(w), CSU(w), and OU(l), I predict a final record of 11-5.

4. Oral Roberts (6-4)

So much for that home court advantage, though we can be fairly certain that if ORU and IUPUI meet in the tournament in KC, it is going to be a barn-burner. The Golden Eagles are especially smarting from the loss to UMKC and they will be spoiling for a rematch. With home games against OU, SUU, and CSU and away games against CC, VU, and WIU, I predict a final record of 10-6. These last 6 games will say a lot about how prepared ORU is for the tourney. My guess is they lose to CC and VU and win the rest, but it is also possible they will win one of those two games and lose one of the other ones.

4. UMKC (6-4)

The Roos are flexing their muscles these days, with victories to back up the bravado. They once again vanquished the Golden Eagles at the Mabee Center, and followed that up by demolishing the struggling Grizzlies. The Roos have their groove on, and they are letting the rest of the conference know about it. This could either fire up or pscyh out the competition, depending on how the other teams react to this. Come tournament time, it will probably add a bit of spice to what already promises to be an exciting 3 days of basketball. With home games against CSU(w) and SUU(l) and away games against IUPUI(w), VU(l), CC(w), and WIU(w), I predict a final record of 10-6.

6. Southern Utah (4-6)

The Thunderbirds are managing to stay one step ahead of the Grizzlies, partly by beating them twice this year. They are without Robbie Warren, their center, but their amoeba zone is in fine form. With homes against VU(w) and WIU(w) and away games against ORU(l), CSU(l), CC(l), and UMKC(w), I predict a final record of 7-9.

7. Chicago State (5-5)

The Cougars are much improved, but their not quite title material yet. They wilted down the stretch at home against VU, although they took care of business against WIU. With home games left against CC(l), IUPUI(l), and SUU(w) and away games left against ORU(l), VU(l), and UMKC(l), I predict a final record of 6-10.

8. Oakland (3-9)

The Grizzlies were headed in the right direction, but they faltered down the stretch against SUU and then were manhandled by UMKC. They are still looking good for the tournament, but probably headed for the 8 seed. With home games left against CC(w) and WIU(w) and away games against ORU(l) and IUPUI(l), I predict a final record of 5-11.

9. Western Illinois (1-10)

It's too bad this isn't last year. Derrick Thomas has these guys passionate about winning again, and they keep giving major effort, but they just haven't been good enough, and this year they are on the brink of not making the tournament. But, when Kevin Jones whips CSU into shape and CC proves not to be the doormat newcomers usually are, the Leathernecks most likely get left behind. With home games against ORU(l), IUPUI(l), and UMKC(l) and away games against SUU(l) and Oakland(l), I predict a final record of 1-15.

The following could be wrong if I've gotten the tiebreaker system wrong.

Quarterfinals
1. Centenary loses to 8. Oakland
4. ORU beats 5. UMKC
2. Valpo beats 7. Chicago State
3. IUPUI beats 6. Southern Utah

Semifinals
8. Oakland loses to 4. ORU
3. IUPUI loses to 2. Valpo

Finals

4. ORU loses to 2. Valpo

In the interrest of full disclosure, that championship game is really too close to call. I'm voting with my heart rather than my head.

isha73 · 03-03-2004, 03:07 PM

You were very close, except for the CSU predication. Then again, who would have thought CSU would have a chance to tie for the conference title. I almost was hoping they'd beat Valpo if only because they deserve some recognition for the turn-around this year. Don't get me wrong, though....I am glad Homer got a title his first year back.

To decide who gets the NCAA bid I think it is easiest to just flip a coin. When has there been so much parity in the Mid-Con?

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