JoeF

ANALYSIS OF JAZZ
Short Version
The more things change the more they stay the same. Only 1 of 8 free agents resigned with the Jazz. I don't see the team slipping much but I don't see any significant improvement over last year either. The Clippers have improved and may be able to overtake the Jazz. Houston also has a shot if Francis is healthy. Seattle haven't improved, may have slipped so there is a chance to overtake them. Minnesota has some questions and could slip. The Jazz will fight for one of the 5-8 seeds, likely end up a 7 or 8 seed and lose in the first round.
Center - Unchanged/Slightly improved
Power Forward - Slightly improved/Unchanged
Small Forward - Unchanged
Shooting Guard - Slightly improved (Could it be any worse than last year?)
Point Guard - Improved
Detailed Version
CENTERS - C is the biggest question mark on this team and has been for 5-10 years since Mark Eaton retired. It will be improved if Borchardt is healthy. If he isn't it will be slightly improved.
Curtis Borchardt - If healthy he is definitely an upgrade over last year and will play significant minutes. He may be out as long as January and there is no timetable for his return.
Jarron Collins - He will be improved. If Borchardt is healthy and/or Ostertag or Amaechi play well could be backup PF as well.
Greg Ostertag - Unchanged. He will contribute significantly one night but the next night you wonder whether he still exists. He has two years left on his deal and needs to prove he deserves big bucks. Will this motivate him? Two good years could make him a bundle of money. I still think he has potential to be a respectable starting center. He is definitely not going to be an all-star but could be in the mid range of starting centers. Work ethic and desire have always been the question.
John Amaechi - He was a major disappointment last year and can only improve on last year's disastrous season. He is supposed to have worked very hard over the summer and be in great shape. He needs to play well so he or Collins can provide backup minutes at PF.
Power Forward - Team strength. Starter is a Hall of Famer. Backups?
Karl Malone - He is in the last year of a contract. Fans and media doubt him. Management doubts him? Karl has much to prove and in his eyes it is Karl against the world. This will be a great year for him. He has never let contract problems negatively affect him on the floor. He has always turned others doubts into motivation. Last year his FG% was really bad by his standards and it seemed he was taking more outside jumpers. He didn't seem to get many shots in the paint. The coaching staff has had the whole off-season to analyze how defenses played Karl last year. I expect them to make some adjustments in the offense to get Karl better shots. I am expecting an All-NBA if not MVP candidate type season from Karl.
Scott Padgett - a tweener. He's not strong enough to play against many PFs and not quick enough to play many SF. He will probably play some backup at both PF and SF. He is a fundamentally sound, a decent rebounder and a good shooter. His range creates matchup problems for the opposing PFs and his size creates mismatches for SFs sometimes. He signed a 1 year/Minimum? contract so he is playing for his next contract and NBA future. If he has a bad year he may not get offers next offseason
Backups - Hopefully 3 of the centers will play well enough to allow Collins or Amaechi to put in some backup minutes. The Jazz will also probably go smaller for short periods with Karl and two of Kirilenko, Harpring or Cheaney up front.
Small Forward - Another Strength. SF's will need to elevate game some to make up for losing Marshall.
Andre Kirilenko- Lots of potential. Team is betting on him being a future star and leader of the team. He is a great weakside shotblocker and a good overall defender. Last year he was #12 in NBA in blocked shots. Andre locked up Kobe for the second half of a game. Kobe killed the Jazz scoring 25+ points in first half. In second half Kobe shot poorly, had several shots blocked and scored only 6 points. He needs to consistently provide effort that kind of effort. His biggest weakness is shooting range and post game.
Matt Harpring - I don't know a lot about him and haven't seen him play much. He seems to be a decent shooter, decent rebounder and a hard-nosed player. I expect him to take up some of the slack caused by losing Marshall. I think he is a player who Sloan will like and he will fit in with the Jazz's team attitude well. He may play some backup minutes at PF and SG.
Shooting Guard - SG is another of the Jazz's major weakness and question marks. Who is the starter? Can anyone hit the 3 consistently? A strong season from Karl would help the SGs. Can someone stay healthy?
Calbert Cheaney- good mid range shooter. He signed a 1 year/1.2M Exception contract so he is playing for his next contract and his NBA future. If he has a bad year he may not get offers next offseason. He may see some backup minutes at SF also. Can he stay healthy? If he does I think he will have a good year.
Deshawn Stevenson- Will he get to play? Can he shoot? After spending 2 years on the bench this is probably his best opportunity to play. If they aren't going to play him TRADE HIM before his value is nothing. He needs to develop a consistent outside shot. He needs to play harder particularly on the defensive side. He is a good passer and could get some minutes at PG if Arroyo struggles or the team has injuries. If he struggles he may not see the light of day again.
Point Guard - Starter is a Hall of Famer. PG is the one position that the Jazz definitely improved both short term and long term. They have two veteran PGs who can start and two young PGs to learn the system and get experience without lots of pressure to perform immediately. This is the most important position on the floor in the Jazz system. If the PG struggles the team struggles. For evidence look at difference between when LaRue was in and when Crotty was healthy and in. Also look at the Sacramento series for illustration to importance of PG.
John Stockton- Will have another solid season. Practices very little and plays close to 30 MPG. If he stays healthy he will play another year or two.
Carlos Arroyo- Inexperienced in the NBA but has college and international experience and was the best PG at the world championships. This is his first chance to really play. He will need to learn quickly and get the confidence of his teammates. Traditionally the backup PG has taken several years to develop. Crotty and Eisley are examples of this. I expect about 5 PPG, 1-2APG from Arroyo. I expect to see the Jazz continue to play two PGs together at times. If any of the SG/SF struggle and Arroyo shoots well he could get a few minutes at SG.
Mark Jackson- He will be insurance in case Stockton gets injured. He is a decent passer, shooter and rarely turns the ball over. Last year he was #2 in NBA at over 4 assist per turnover in assist/turnover ratio. He will get many of the backup PG minutes though Arroyo will also get some minutes.
Raul Lopez- Out for most if not all the season. Even though he could be ready to play around March/April, could play a few games in regular season and playoffs I think they will be very conservative in his returning to play. He is supposed to be the PG of the future and with three other PGs signed to guaranteed contracts Lopez is highly unlikely to play this season. Don't be surprised if the Jazz keep him on IR all season. I am positive they will not rush him back unless they have injury problems.

TomBoerwinkle#1

Nice analysis, Joe. I don't really know if Utah accomplished anything other than bringing in someone new to blame by dumping Marshall in favor of Harpring. Personally I'm glad that Donyell ended up in Chicago.

I agree that the Jazz are headed for a 7-8 slot. I think that the predictions of a major shakeup in the bottom half of the western conference, with Utah ending up sitting at home watching the first round on TV are a little premature, as long as Stockton and Malone both stay healthy.

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JoeF

Tom
If you are interested here is a link to an interview Marshall did with a local radio staion not long after his signing in Chicago. 1280 is a direct competitor to the Utah Jazz's sttaion 1320 KFAN.

http://www.1280kzn.com/audio/interviews/Marshall.mp3

JGKoblenz

Since the first time I saw this kid playing I was thrilled. I said to everyone that was with me: "This Kirilenko has a bright future. He will be amazing". I know I was a little to much exited with him, but I still think he has all to be a star in the league. He can shotblock everyone. (I mean EVERYONE). He has the timing, the jump and encredible long arms.

KIRILENKO, he is the only future for now. The Jazz need more.

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BigMike

A couple of thoughts: I think that Andrei Kirilenko is going to be a star, and maybe the best player on the team this year.

Secondly, about DeShawn Stevenson, I think he will play. In fact, I hope he starts. Harp is WAAAAY outta position at the two guard...

Finally, I hate to say it, but I'm not sure the Jazz are headed for the playoffs this year. Clippers are much better, and if they are in a heated battle for the 8 spot like they were last season, I don't see the Jazz pulling it out. Although they are still putting up great numbers, stockton and malone aren't producing quite at the level they used to. This may be the end of the road. (I hope not though!)

Showtyme

Harpring isn't THAT out of position at 2 guard. He has range and quickness enough to be productive offensively, and his good defense will hold up there as well. He's certainly not conventional there, but he'll bring a decent high post game to the position.

Kirilenko is going to be very good, I agree.

DeShawn might be pretty good too, but he's going to have to make major improvements beginning now. Even if the stats don't show a tremendous difference, his game and physique has to start coming into the place where he'll need them for his NBA career...

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BamaBull

to agree, that the jazz have seen their last playoff position for a while....just a hunch. TOO many teams that have improved, and/or are already better than the jazz...sorry.