I've posted this on the Bulls board, but in case some of you guys haven't seen it, I've been working on a rating system to compare NBA teams and players. If you have MS Excel, you should be able to look at it at the following link:
http://members.cox.net/mhc/Sports/nbaratings.xls
Among other things, I have a sortable list of every player in the league and his ratings, and ratings box scores for each Wizards game (at least, since the beginning of the year). So far, I've noticed that the Wiz seem to get the short end of the stick under my system. The last time I did a league-wide calculation, the Wiz had the 17th best record in the league, were only the 20th rated team based on my system (of course, I'd be skeptical if there was an exact correlation
). One thing I've noticed is teams I think of as being fairly good defensively (the Wiz, Detroit, Phoenix, Miami) might be somewhat undervalued by my system. There's just no good statistical way to capture good man to man D.
I calculate the ratings in the following way:
Offensive Stats
Teamwork: Offensive statistics that help other teammates score. Offensive rebounds keep possessions alive. Assists count for slightly more than half a bucket because a good pass will put someone in good position to score. Turnovers not only end your possession, they create a scoring opportunity for your opponent. Therefore, they are detracted from a player's score.
OReb .25 points for each offensive rebound
Ast 1.35 points for each assist
TO -1.25 points for each turnover
Scoring: Offensive statistics that are really the bottom line. The team that scores the most wins. Field Goals made count for 2 points, three pointers made add an additional point, as in real life. A half point is subtracted for every field goal attempted. This rewards good shooters and acknowleges the fact that every time you shoot, you're giving the other team an opportunity to take the ball. Likewise, free throws. Free throws typically end your possession, so you better convert them:
FGM 2 points for each field goal made Scoring
FGA -0.5 points for each field goal attempt
FTM .9 points for each free throw made
FTM -0.1 points for each free throw attempt
TPM 1 additional point for each 3 pointer made
Defensive Stats
Production: Defensive statistics that give an opportunity to your team and take away an opportunity from the other team. Defensive rebounds merit some points, but they exist because the opponent has gotten a shot off. Blocks are worth more because they prevent a shot and also cause an intimidation factor. Steals are the best of all because they deny the ball before any shot is allowed and provide a certain scoring opportunity for your team (as opposed to a block, which may not force a turnover).
DReb 0.5 points for each defensive rebound
STL 2 points for each steal
Blk 1 point for each block
Mistakes: Defensive plays that give an opportunity to the other team should detract from a player's rating. PFs give a scoring opportunity in some cases, and if a player gets too many, it reduces his effectiveness as a defender, making him easy to exploit or unable to play
PF -0.25 points for each personal foul
Player Ratings:
I then took things a step further and assigned a "quality" label to each player based on his overall rank:
The top 14 rated players in the league are "Superstars". The remainder of the top 29 players in the league are "Stars". Players 30-58 are "Marginal Stars", and players 59-145 are "Starters". Players 146-232 are "Role Players" and players 233 to 348 are bench players. Players ranked 349 and below are considered "Fringe/IL" players.
If all the league's talent was distributed equally, one would see that each of the 29 teams would have:
1 All-Star or Star (their best player)
1 Marginal Star (their second best player)
3 Starters (their remaining starters)
3 Role Players (the first three guys off the bench)
4 Bench Players (guys who rarely get off the bench)
3 IL List players (guys on the IR)
Under this scheme, the Wizards have (As of Jan 3, before MJ started going nuts, which will raise his rating):
1 Star: Stack
1 Marginal Star: MJ
2 Starters: Hughes and Laettner
4 Role Players: Lue, Brown, Haywood, Russell
5 Bench Players: Dixon, Jeffries (on IL for the year), Etan, Oak, Simmons
2 Fringe/IL players: Cardinal, White (on IL so far)
Ratings the Wizards (and everyone else).
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Linear Mode
