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Old 02-21-2003, 09:48 PM   #1 (permalink)
local_sportsfan
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FJ of Rockaway

I wanted to ask you if you still believe Larry Hughes was a waste of the MLE?

*note to Mods...I am not trying to bait...I honestly would like to know FJ's opinion...thanks.*
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Old 02-24-2003, 09:25 PM   #2 (permalink)
FJ_of _Rockaway
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Sorry for taking so long to reply but I rarely visit other forums and I came across this on Who's online

But the short answer to your question is Yes - I believe you overpaid for him .

I believed it then and I believe it now
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Old 02-24-2003, 09:36 PM   #3 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally posted by <b>FJ_of _Rockaway</b>!
Sorry for taking so long to reply but I rarely visit other forums and I came across this on Who's online

But the short answer to your question is Yes - I believe you overpaid for him .

I believed it then and I believe it now
Well I didn't "overpay" for him...the Wiz did.

Why do you still believe so? Are his stats this season not enough to merit the MLE? Is he old? Injury prone?

Enlighten me.
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Old 02-24-2003, 10:15 PM   #4 (permalink)
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Go back and revist the threads over the summer if you can be bothered . It's all contained in there as to the reasons ( in what I believe )

He's hardly Ricky Davis now is he ?

Also consider the latest contracts of other young guns that take up their extensions next year in Bender, Artest and co which rationalises my assertions even further

I think he was an OK enough signing but not at the price

I projected his maximum value in a rationalist model was $2.8M from memory

Don't sweat it though .

At least the Wiz didn't give the MLE to Theifin George

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Old 02-25-2003, 08:59 AM   #5 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally posted by <b>F.Jerzy</b>!
Go back and revist the threads over the summer if you can be bothered . It's all contained in there as to the reasons ( in what I believe )

He's hardly Ricky Davis now is he ?

Also consider the latest contracts of other young guns that take up their extensions next year in Bender, Artest and co which rationalises my assertions even further

I think he was an OK enough signing but not at the price

I projected his maximum value in a rationalist model was $2.8M from memory

Don't sweat it though .

At least the Wiz didn't give the MLE to Theifin George

True that on George.

And no, he isn't Ricky Davis, but that is not the role LH plays in DC. Honestly, what does Ricky Davis do besides put points on the board? Nothing else.

LH defends 1 and 2's, rebounds, shoots at a high percentage, and every now and then he'll give you assists. He's not playing the role of a scorer like Davis is, but if he were, he would easily match Davis' numbers. Hell, LH was averaging 15 and 8 for a good two months...and that was still playing third fiddle behind Jordan and Stack.

Off the top of my head, I can name only a few guys I would take over LH for the MLE. Artest, Harpring, and Ben Wallace. I would not take Davis (who's also a headcase), Marshall, Bender, George, or any others.

Coincidentally this was supposed to be an experimental year for LH at the pg. He has passed the test IMO.
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Old 02-25-2003, 09:08 AM   #6 (permalink)
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Comparing Davis, Artest and Bender to Hughes is not exactly fair in the sense that the former were never on the open market and unrestricted like Hughes.

But let's set that aside and assume that FJ is correct that the Pacers have gotten great value for Bender and Artest with deals above the MLE. Therefore, the Pacers *must* understand the market.

The Pacers also gave Jeff Foster a long term deal at $3.8M/year. Now Hughes' value has to fall between $3.8M (Foster) and $5.4M (~Bender/Artest deals). So looks like Wiz paid *just* the right amount.

If Larry takes another good step forward, it will be a great signing.

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Old 02-25-2003, 09:20 AM   #7 (permalink)
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Players in the East making simular numbers as Boogie. They were not necessarily in the free agent market last year:

Eric Williams - Boston
Jim McIlvane - N.J.
Charley Ward - NY
Clarence Weatherspoon - NY
Kurt Thomas - NY
Shandon Anderson - NY
Darrell Armstrong - Orl
Aaron Mckie - Philly
Nazr Mohammed - ATL
Donyell Marshall - Chi
Ricky Davis - Cle
Corliss Williamson - DET
Al Harrington - Ind
Sam Cassell - MIL
Anthony Mason - MIL
ALvin Williams - TOR

So far I think Boogie compares well with these guys.
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Old 02-25-2003, 03:31 PM   #8 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally posted by <b>NorthEast Wiz</b>!
Players in the East making simular numbers as Boogie. They were not necessarily in the free agent market last year:

Eric Williams - Boston
Jim McIlvane - N.J.
Charley Ward - NY
Clarence Weatherspoon - NY
Kurt Thomas - NY
Shandon Anderson - NY
Darrell Armstrong - Orl
Aaron Mckie - Philly
Nazr Mohammed - ATL
Donyell Marshall - Chi
Ricky Davis - Cle
Corliss Williamson - DET
Al Harrington - Ind
Sam Cassell - MIL
Anthony Mason - MIL
ALvin Williams - TOR

So far I think Boogie compares well with these guys.
The only one out of any of these that are relevant is Rick Davis as they struck contracts at the same time

You cannot compare reasonableness of cost at different junctures of time when factors influencing such cost were different
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Old 02-25-2003, 03:49 PM   #9 (permalink)
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In the aggregate market, sure you can. I evaluate the 5 million we are spending on Laetner but when he was signed and now. I rate it to be a bad value. Simularly when I look at the 4.5 we are spending on Boogie, I have to look at the time of the deal and what 4.5 is valued at now.
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Old 02-25-2003, 03:52 PM   #10 (permalink)
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I think Hughes was a modest acquisition. He wasn't overpaid. The Wiz got someone who can guard the 1 and 2's and present matchup problems when he is the 1 on offense. He's young, athletic, and can score. He's the 3rd scorer the Wiz will need to make a run at the playoffs.

4.5/42.5 that the cap is now = about 1/10th of the teams cap. When you think about it, thats not to bad. Its right about average(12 guys on a team- if you ignore the IR).
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Old 02-25-2003, 03:53 PM   #11 (permalink)
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NorthEastWiz- about your sig


Its also less than 3 cents a day to be a SM. My old sig had that on it.
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Old 02-25-2003, 03:55 PM   #12 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally posted by <b>FJ_of _Rockaway</b>!


The only one out of any of these that are relevant is Rick Davis as they struck contracts at the same time

You cannot compare reasonableness of cost at different junctures of time when factors influencing such cost were different
Why do you keep trumpeting Ricky Davis , sure he's a talent but he's a ball hogging stat chaser. I like his talent but his numbers are overblown based on the team he plays . He is part of that teams problem saying all that I'd take him on the Wizards in a heart beat. Hughes has been a find for the Wizards and when healthy has been very good for us and a bargain. Collins mindlock got him pulled for sorry Lue really no basis for the benching but thats another story on balance though Hughes has been a great pick-up playing great defense at the pg spot being versatile enough to play the 1,2,3, and being a solid guard rebounder. At what 23 and with the MLE I wish we can find another bargain like that next year.
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Old 02-25-2003, 03:57 PM   #13 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally posted by <b>johnston797</b>!
Comparing Davis, Artest and Bender to Hughes is not exactly fair in the sense that the former were never on the open market and unrestricted like Hughes.
Here we go again Johnny......



Anybody could have offered Ricky anything - the Wiz could have bid Artest /Bender money but they didn't

I will also say that Cleveland's offense has been shared with Miles trying to distribute with Davis and Wagner - whilst using a traditional push guard in Smush

So Ricky and Stack on the perimeter with Lue and Dixon handling the 1 spot could have worked better for the Wiz IMO and they probably could have saved themselves the BRuss signing and just played Jordan as perimeter reserve

I will also point out that Artest and Bender are indeed fair

No one was holding a gun to their head to sign those contracts. They were offered and they were accepted

I think the Pacers overpaid for Bender as well - but again there is a component of fear in that offering - that someone else will get him and cash in on his upside. And in the case of Bender it is more traumatic for an organsiation when such player is your draft pick that you traded away one of your toughest inside players for who could still be helping your team ( AD ) No one wants to screw the pooch in losing their own high lottery pick that you traded a tough guy for .... so the fear dynamic is enhanced to put it suitably over MLE to reduce his market - except as I say, he didn't have to sign it ( although he would have been a fool not too as he has not done anything to really warrant it )

Artest is a different story - I think he marginally undersold himself in that he is a key reason why the Pacers are where they are at and with what he is producing , combined with the fact , he has been a difference maker ( and possibly 2nd in line for team MVP honors ) then his cost is pretty cheap

Bender, Davis and Artest are good examples as they are perimeter swing players as Lozza is

Chauncey is a good example as well and is probably worth the MLE ... but not quite ( late $3M's IMO ) Chauncey has won games off his own bat this season eben though his line is similar to Lozza's . I don't know whether Lozza has taken games by the scruff of the neck and has been the singular dynamic as to whether the Wiz have won some games or not. I suspect not even though he has had some nice contributions here and there.

Theivin George is a good example and he makes Loz look like a bargain .... but that is one example

Jeff McInnis , Greg Buckner etc ... they all rationalise Lozza's cost in what he could have been bought for at the time there was the opportunity to buy him cheaper.

Does he have upside? Can he get better? Maybe.

Why not structure his contract starting at $3M with performance bonuses and let him grow into Artest/Bender/Davis money with 12% increases + such performance bonuses??

Quote:
's set that aside and assume that FJ is correct that the Pacers have gotten great value for Bender and Artest with deals above the MLE. Therefore, the Pacers *must* understand the market.

The Pacers also gave Jeff Foster a long term deal at $3.8M/year. Now Hughes' value has to fall between $3.8M (Foster) and $5.4M (~Bender/Artest deals). So looks like Wiz paid *just* the right amount.
Foster is a F/C and big always gets paid better than small - you know that . You cannot take a bigman's contract and realistically equate to reasonableness of a dime a dozen wing player's contract.

Its like somoone getting a great deal on a primemover to justify what they have just spent on a 4WD
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Old 02-25-2003, 04:01 PM   #14 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally posted by <b>NorthEast Wiz</b>!
In the aggregate market, sure you can. I evaluate the 5 million we are spending on Laetner but when he was signed and now. I rate it to be a bad value. Simularly when I look at the 4.5 we are spending on Boogie, I have to look at the time of the deal and what 4.5 is valued at now.
Oooooookkkkk

Opportunity in time in striking a deal - forget the rest of the BS as it just is not relevent. Your using aged data that relate toa different place and time as well as using examples of bigs to justify costs of smalls

Its very generalist . Very. Therefore it has a greater propensity for irrelevancy and inaccuracy
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Old 02-25-2003, 04:11 PM   #15 (permalink)
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Originally posted by <b>local_sportsfan</b>!



And no, he isn't Ricky Davis, but that is not the role LH plays in DC. Honestly, what does Ricky Davis do besides put points on the board? Nothing else.
I suggest you watch some Cavs games

A large part of the offense actually flows through Ricky . Its actually a shared offense with Ricky trying to share and initiate with Miles and Wags with Smush being used more traditionally

Just because Ricky is a scorer does not mean he is a black hole. Like your boy Stack he is avergaging over 5 assists a game and yea he has like 3 T/O a game but this is more him forcing the offense and trying to create plays with his passing game that is are too risky.

Young players will always fall victim to that type of ill discipline

With 5 boards and 2 steals a game whilst giving 22 points - let's just say that Ricky Davis is not the Cavs problem

Basically his play has had Darius Miles in the foetal position sucking his thumb because he has not been able to hack it .

Problem with the Cavs is that they are a young inexperienced side trying to find their identity and they have parts like Illgauskas that , good center that he is , is illsuited to a fast paced run and gun offense that they are trying to run

Oh... and nobody knows how to play co -ordinated team defense of that team yet even though there are some OK one on one defenders
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