Man, I made a fairly long post about this about a month ago, but that was when we had the database problems and it was lost
Oh well, here I go again.
Right now, the only guy on our roster that is an obvious unprotect is Laettner. He has no role on the team and we'd love to axe his near $6 million deal off of our payroll. After that, things get a little more tricky.
There is a group of five guys that I think are easy protects: Arenas, Stackhouse, Hughes, Kwame, and Hayes. These are pretty obvious -- they're our best players outside of Hayes, who has shown enough promise in the early season games to make him an easy pick to protect. Filling out the remaining three spots is where things get hazy.
One point that I'd like to make first is that we want them to take Laettner. He's not just an obvious player to leave unprotected, we actually want them to take him off our hands. It makes sense for them to do so as well -- he's still an okay player, a veteran, a big man, and has a nice-sized contract which vanishes after next season. However, we need to somehow make Laettner the best option available from our squad, which means that the other unprotected players can't be more appetizing for Charlotte. That is what is most complicated here in my opinion -- we aren't just deciding who we can't afford to lose, we have to think about who the Bobcats are least likely to take.
The five guys competing for the three other protected spots: Dixon, Blake, Jeffries, Haywood, and Etan. I really think there are no obvious choices here at all.
I think Dixon would be snatched up by them over Laettner: he's a fan favorite, is probably capable of being a go-to guy on a really bad team, has zero off the court problems, and will always bust his butt 110%. He's a perfect pickup for them, so I think we probably need to protect him if our goal is to dump Laettner. If we aren't that high on that goal, and the team plans on having Hughes be our starting SG for beyond next season (when his contract is up), then we can probably leave him unprotected.
Haywood is someone I think we'll need to protect, as he has all kinds of advantages over Laettner. He's younger, cheaper, plays the better position (C vs. PF), has no off the court problems that I can remember ... for the most part, a perfect pickup for them. Plus, depending on where we wind up in the draft lottery, he could very well be the only center on our roster come summertime. It's a big risk leaving him unprotected, and I say we dont' take that risk. (Side note: I thought that Haywood was in the same boat as Kwame, in that we picked up his option for next season -- unlike Etan, who we didn't. If that's true, then he would already be signed for next season, and wouldn't be an UFA if they pick him. Either way, with him possibly being our only center heading into the summer, I still want him protected).
Blake is very iffy here. Basically, our management and coaching staff need to decide what our backup PG plans are for next season. We have a wide variety of options here: Blake, Knight (resigned for low amount), a FA pickup, or not really have one at all (using Stackhouse/Hughes/Dixon to run things when Arenas sits down). If what our team decides is the best option is Blake, well then we need to protect him. Otherwise, I think we take the risk and put him next to Laettner on the unprotected bench. There'll probably be plenty of decent PG options available to the Bobcats, so hopefully they go in another direction.
Jeffries looks like a unprotect to me, depending on how management feels about Blake as our future backup PG. He has been given a lot of court time this season, a lot of which he didn't really seem to be earning in my opinion, and he has done nothing with it. Simply put, he has probably been our worst player this season for the most part. Outside of some decent rebounding numbers, he hasn't given us much of anything. Now, normally you wouldn't give up a 6'11 quasi-rookie selected in the lottery, but considering our options we may not have much of a choice.
Etan is probably not protected either, just a guess. I don't know why Charlotte would pick him just to have him become an UFA, so I don't think we have to worry about him taking up the Laettner-selection. I also don't think Etan will resign with us this offseason. His role has dwindled as the season has moved on, and with us probably selecting another big in the draft, he will probably head out of town.
<b>My Final Protections</b>
1. Gilbert Arenas
2. Kwame Brown
3. Jarvis Hayes
4. Larry Hughes
5. Jerry Stackhouse
6. Juan Dixon
7. Brendan Haywood
<u>8. Steve Blake/Jared Jeffries</u>
Steve Blake/Jared Jeffries
Etan Thomas
Christian Laettner
The Blake/Jeffries thing depends on what direction management decides to go in for the backup PG role for the future. If I had to make a pick now, I'd say we protect JJ. It isn't that I like him for us more than Blake (I definitely do not right now), it's just that I think that Charlotte would probably take him over Laettner. With Blake, I'm not so sure they'd grab him. My goal here is obviously for them to take Laettner from us -- if the team isn't that high on that, then it probably makes it easier to leave JJ unprotected and to keep Blake.
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