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Old 07-05-2019, 07:20 AM   #1396 (permalink)
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Re: Reshuffling Conferences

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Originally Posted by njlsufan View Post
Just curious why you included La Salle in your list of 3 leaving. UMass and VCU I can see why (football and AAC invite respectively), but La Salle seems like an odd choice for suddenly leaving. It wouldn't have anything to do with your hard-on for dumping La Salle, would it?
LaSalle was mentioned earlier in this thread in a what-if scenario because of the rumored study to explore the MAAC.

You’ll not find a comment from me about kicking out any member. I don’t see it happening, however, I believe that schools should do a self assessment and make a determination regarding their commitment to operating basketball programs at a “P6” level. You will find that I have these comments many times. I believe that it’s unfair that there is a huge disparity in commitment between programs. If a school can’t commit the resources to be at that level they should align themselves with like minded programs, and let the conference find other programs that will commit to a higher level.

I realize that many schools arent going to build 10,000 seat arenas, but look at what Duquesne has done and is doing. Many on this board don’t care for Dambrot but they went out and got the coach that they wanted. I believe that they have increased their budgets as well (DUQ fans can weigh in here). Now they are seriously upgrading facilities- not necessarily adding seats. It’s a commitment to turn things around.
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Old 07-05-2019, 08:09 AM   #1397 (permalink)
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Re: Reshuffling Conferences

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Originally Posted by JAF_1962 View Post
LaSalle was mentioned earlier in this thread in a what-if scenario because of the rumored study to explore the MAAC.

You’ll not find a comment from me about kicking out any member. I don’t see it happening, however, I believe that schools should do a self assessment and make a determination regarding their commitment to operating basketball programs at a “P6” level. You will find that I have these comments many times. I believe that it’s unfair that there is a huge disparity in commitment between programs. If a school can’t commit the resources to be at that level they should align themselves with like minded programs, and let the conference find other programs that will commit to a higher level.

I realize that many schools arent going to build 10,000 seat arenas, but look at what Duquesne has done and is doing. Many on this board don’t care for Dambrot but they went out and got the coach that they wanted. I believe that they have increased their budgets as well (DUQ fans can weigh in here). Now they are seriously upgrading facilities- not necessarily adding seats. It’s a commitment to turn things around.
From a Duquesne fan's perspective, so far the commitment is there. I don't know enough about the dollar commitment but facility wise we will certainly have a major improvement in everything except perhaps in the seating capacity of the basketball arena portion.

As to Coach Dambrot, I like him and am not sure why others don't or find the need to insult him based on his stature or other characteristics. Duquesne is finally doing what people here have long complained about - showed a commitment that is similarly found in other A10 and better schools. Yet now we see criticism that almost is saying, "we want you to change but now it's too much."

Hiring Dambrot is certainly an excellent start because he is intense, competitive and dedicated.

I also agree with your other comments JAF.
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Old 07-05-2019, 11:00 AM   #1398 (permalink)
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Re: Reshuffling Conferences

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Originally Posted by Mulder View Post
From a Duquesne fan's perspective, so far the commitment is there. I don't know enough about the dollar commitment but facility wise we will certainly have a major improvement in everything except perhaps in the seating capacity of the basketball arena portion.



As to Coach Dambrot, I like him and am not sure why others don't or find the need to insult him based on his stature or other characteristics. Duquesne is finally doing what people here have long complained about - showed a commitment that is similarly found in other A10 and better schools. Yet now we see criticism that almost is saying, "we want you to change but now it's too much."



Hiring Dambrot is certainly an excellent start because he is intense, competitive and dedicated.



I also agree with your other comments JAF.
He hasn't been criticized because he's short and looks like a hobbit. It's because he recruits over players--guys that he himself recruited--to a degree that is egregious at any level of college basketball.
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Old 07-05-2019, 01:22 PM   #1399 (permalink)
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Re: Reshuffling Conferences

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To a degree, yes. But look at the "ratios" of the ACC/A10 I noted.
They are damn near equal.
Those ratios are "damned near equal" if you're looking at what each team did within its conference by conference standings.

I used the WCC as an example, because I didn't want to get into arguments about A-10 schools and shit on my brothers' programs; while I had no problem saying that the bottom five of the WCC "suck." But here's comparing the ACC and A10 in those WCC team categories:

"Gonzaga"
ACC: Virginia, Duke, North Carolina, Virginia Tech, Florida State
A10: None

"SMC"
ACC: Louisville, NC State, Clemson, Syracuse
A10: VCU

"BYU"
ACC: Miami, Notre Dame, Boston College, Georgia Tech, Pitt
A10: Dayton, Davidson

"5th WCC"
ACC: Wake Forest
A10: Saint Louis, Bonaventure, URI, Mason

"Bottom"
ACC: None
A10: Duquesne, LaSalle, Saint Joseph’s, Richmond, UMass, GW, Fordham


Now, when you look at the numbers, you might say "Dude, Notre Dame, BC, GT, and Pitt are no where near BYU/Dayton/Davidson." But you have to remember the Conference Effect. Davidson is better than Miami, but it's close:
- Miami was 14-18 overall because they went 0-11 vs Q1, 12-3 vs Q3/Q4;
- Davidson is 23-10 because they went 0-2 vs Q1 and 18-5 vs Q3/Q4.

Give DC nine more Q1 losses and they're 14-19, Give Miami 9 less Q1 losses and they're 22-13.


The data you see in tables of NET and Conference Standings are the results of the conference effect and schedule. Don't consider teams as "their record" or "their net" but a "byproduct of schedule" instead.

Just look at basketball back in like, 1988. The "powerful programs" of college hoops were spread out of 22 different conferences. If we returned to that conference alignment and schedule, the BCS teams that everyone says are just "better" than non-BCS teams.... a lot of them would be proven to actually be better. However, at the same time, there'd be a large amount of non-BCS teams that could finally prove they are JUST AS GOOD because the access to the Top 50 of RPI/NET would a lot more fair.


(This is so much easier to explain if I could spend like a month making visual aides).
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Old 07-05-2019, 01:24 PM   #1400 (permalink)
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Re: Reshuffling Conferences

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From a Duquesne fan's perspective, so far the commitment is there.
Which is great to see. However, I don't like your new logo.
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Old 07-06-2019, 11:22 AM   #1401 (permalink)
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Re: Reshuffling Conferences

JP, I'm going to admit it's beyond me, and I probably need your visual aids.

But just on the basic deal, you were arguing for the BE to have more teams so they would have a couple teams on the bottom to suck up loses. And I showed you the ACC and A10, and how they DID have teams on the bottom to suck up loses...and the ratios of the records of both were the same.
Yet the ACC gets 7 teams in, and the A10 got 2.

So, to me at least, it's more important how you do OOC, and maybe you have to be riskier. It doesn't do the A10 any good to have teams on the bottom absorbing conference loses, when your conference and overall record (Dayton and Davidson) is that same as some ACC schools, and leaves you on the outside looking in.
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Old 07-06-2019, 11:27 AM   #1402 (permalink)
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Re: Reshuffling Conferences

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Originally Posted by paulxu View Post
JP, I'm going to admit it's beyond me, and I probably need your visual aids.

But just on the basic deal, you were arguing for the BE to have more teams so they would have a couple teams on the bottom to suck up loses. And I showed you the ACC and A10, and how they DID have teams on the bottom to suck up loses...and the ratios of the records of both were the same.
Yet the ACC gets 7 teams in, and the A10 got 2.

So, to me at least, it's more important how you do OOC, and maybe you have to be riskier. It doesn't do the A10 any good to have teams on the bottom absorbing conference loses, when your conference and overall record (Dayton and Davidson) is that same as some ACC schools, and leaves you on the outside looking in.
Well, paul, take a look at the ACC teams' OOC home-to-road ratio in comparison to the A10. Most of those schools play two road games. Some don't play any true road games. On top of that, look at the types of programs the ACC can afford to buy for one-offs. It's apples and oranges. They play more home games, win most of them (like most decent-to-good teams), compile 10+ wins, and then play each other.
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Old 07-06-2019, 11:57 AM   #1403 (permalink)
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Re: Reshuffling Conferences

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Originally Posted by Bill Russell View Post
Well, paul, take a look at the ACC teams' OOC home-to-road ratio in comparison to the A10. Most of those schools play two road games. Some don't play any true road games. On top of that, look at the types of programs the ACC can afford to buy for one-offs. It's apples and oranges. They play more home games, win most of them (like most decent-to-good teams), compile 10+ wins, and then play each other.
Good point, which was why I looked at OOC SOS to get some idea, and W/L's within quadrants 1/2 OOC.

Edit: Dayton played one OOC road game last year.
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Old 07-06-2019, 02:20 PM   #1404 (permalink)
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Re: Reshuffling Conferences

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Originally Posted by paulxu View Post
JP, I'm going to admit it's beyond me, and I probably need your visual aids.

And I showed you the ACC and A10, and how they DID have teams on the bottom to suck up loses...and the ratios of the records of both were the same.

Yet the ACC gets 7 teams in, and the A10 got 2.

So, to me at least, it's more important how you do OOC
You're almost there. YES, how you do OOC is immensely important. It’s insanely important to conference effect because every conference is going .500 against itself, so how you all do OOC collectively as a conference is what separates Power Conferences from Non-Power conferences.

The ACC was 149-41 (.784) last year, and the A10 was 94-84 (.528). So the ACC gets 12 games against Q1, and the A10 gets 3 games against Q1.
The AAC gets their conference games worth like .620 on their SOS, the A-10 gets conference games worth like .510 on their SOS.

That’s why they get 7 bids and we got 2, despite conference standings being about the same.


I feel you’re viewing the “soaking up conference losses” part from an “Everyone’s the same” standpoint in terms of conference standings and — while that’s exactly true of conference STANDINGS, it’s not true of “who’s who on the NCAA At-Large board because of OOC play and what the does to NET/SOS/and the Q1 to Q4 breakdowns.


Generally, 10-team, 12-team, 14-team conferences act pretty consistently the same. Four teams finishing 7th at 7-11 is rare. Five teams finishing first at 12-6 is rare. If someone were to go through like 10 years of data on how a 10-team conference standings behave and take average records of each place (which I have!) they’d come to the conclusion that 10 teams is a bad number for the Big East based on the number of programs they have that COULD make the NCAAs in an unbalanced schedule (which I have been saying for years!).

That “Conferences perform the same IN CONFERENCE” was the basis on my whole “A-10 will be fine even though we’re losing Xavier, Temple, Butler and Charlotte” argument, while most outsiders thought we were screwed and headed toward San Juan Bid City. I knew that without Xavier, Dayton would be 2 games better. The big loss would be that Xavier and Butler tended to be awesome OOC record wise; but Temple and Charlotte did not, making it a wash for us.



The main part here is that: BECAUSE all the conferences act the same in conference play (as similar sized conferences), the records of team are not a true reflection of how good the teams actually ARE.

This is why I used the WCC as an example, because they are CONSISTENT and every knows the whole “If Gonzaga/Saint Mary’s was in a better conference, they wouldn’t be 30-3 or 28-6” argument.

Using the Big East, WCC* and a one-bid 10-team conference is the ideal example because they have the same configuration: 10 teams, BALANCED double-round robin schedule (* - the WCC abandoned that last year to keep Gonzaga, but for the previous five years those conferences were the same).
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Old 07-06-2019, 03:49 PM   #1405 (permalink)
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Re: Reshuffling Conferences

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Originally Posted by paulxu View Post
So, to me at least, it's more important how you do OOC, and maybe you have to be riskier. It doesn't do the A10 any good to have teams on the bottom absorbing conference loses, when your conference and overall record (Dayton and Davidson) is that same as some ACC schools, and leaves you on the outside looking in.
You don't want to be riskier. We've had this convo a thousand times. Risk has a higher reward, but waaaaaay longer odds. The only time we were a one-bid league was when we did exactly that. It's why the A-10 replaced Linda Bruno.


The whole "It doesn't do the A10 any good to have teams on the bottom absorbing conference loses" thing is not wrong. It's not really helping us collectively. BUT

A. - I didn't say it was, I said the Big East needs it.
B. - It could help us if our middle was a lot better.

You're comparing the principle I'd advocate for the Big East as if the Top 10 of the Big East and A-10 are the same (They're not).

And that assumes the A-10 just formed with the decision to have those ratios (We didn't, we evolved over 30 years). The Big East actually did just form and DID choose those ratios. And I'm saying choosing those ratios wasn't the smartest of ideas.
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