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Old 03-13-2019, 08:22 AM   #136 (permalink)
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Ok BI, dont go all Stephen A Smith on us. You are better than that. Gonazaga is a great team and they will be in the Final 4. They are the only team to beat Duke at full strength. They have earned benefit of the doubt.
Maybe I'm being a little salty, but '03 they looked terrible last night. Maybe a season full of playing crap teams dulled their edge. They also beat Duke back in November. I said they're really good, but to cool the 1-seed/#1 in the nation talk. If I had to put a percentage on it, I'd say under 50% chance they make the Final 4. A true number 1 doesn't put that performance on the court last night.
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Old 03-13-2019, 08:24 AM   #137 (permalink)
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Gonzaga lays a gigantic egg last night and the bubble gets smaller as St. Mary's takes the WCC. I watched the entire game and GU looked like Garbage U. They are always so overrated, they aren't #1 in the nation, shit they aren't even a 1-seed. If it hadn't been for their past performances (6 straight WCC tourneys) I'd have suggested they tanked in order to get 2 in from their conference last night it was that bad. You can't lose to a team you beat by 48 and 15 during the regular season. You don't lose your conference tournament when you get a bye into the semis, you're 16-0 against the WCC (17-0 after semis) with average MOV around 25 pts. Either Randy Bennett found the magic potion in the span of a week, or GU just didn't give a crap.

East Coast bias? Sure. But their "brand" of basketball or whatever you want to call it just doesn't pass muster when I think of what I see watching a fair number of Big12 and ACC basketball games. I think they're good. Really good. But the number 1 crap is over the top.
Reminds me of a lot of stuff found on other boards when St. Joe's was #1 back in 2004.
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Old 03-13-2019, 08:28 AM   #138 (permalink)
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Reminds me of a lot of stuff found on other boards when St. Joe's was #1 back in 2004.
And were they right or wrong back then? Come on ace, insert your opinion dammit!
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Old 03-13-2019, 08:34 AM   #139 (permalink)
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Re: Miscellaneous Stuf

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Maybe I'm being a little salty, but '03 they looked terrible last night. Maybe a season full of playing crap teams dulled their edge. They also beat Duke back in November. I said they're really good, but to cool the 1-seed/#1 in the nation talk. If I had to put a percentage on it, I'd say under 50% chance they make the Final 4. A true number 1 doesn't put that performance on the court last night.

Name one team in college basketball that hasnt looked terrible once. Duke, UNC, Gonzaga, Tennessee, Michigan St...etc have all had at least 1 terrible game.
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Old 03-13-2019, 08:37 AM   #140 (permalink)
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A loss like that is almost a good thing for a team like Gonzaga, as it reminds them that they are by no means flawless and need to tighten shit up before the dance. Also, it gets their league at least one extra NCAA unit. I wouldn't worry about the Zags at all. Their size and physicality almost always assures a run to (at least) the second weekend.

Oh, and I'm going to be so bummed if Belmont doesn't receive an at-large. That's a really, really good team. That senior shooter of theirs needs to be on the big stage.
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Old 03-13-2019, 09:18 AM   #141 (permalink)
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Re: Miscellaneous Stuf

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Reminds me of a lot of stuff found on other boards when St. Joe's was #1 back in 2004.
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And were they right or wrong back then? Come on ace, insert your opinion dammit!
I'll add it. Saint Joseph's should have been the National Champions in 2004 and deserved the #1 seed. Xavier was a bucket away from the Elite Eight that year. SMC will not be in the S16 this year.
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Old 03-13-2019, 11:15 AM   #142 (permalink)
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Name one team in college basketball that hasnt looked terrible once. Duke, UNC, Gonzaga, Tennessee, Michigan St...etc have all had at least 1 terrible game.
The Wofford College Terriers.
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Old 03-13-2019, 01:09 PM   #143 (permalink)
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Also, with the thousands of games already played this year, and the millions of data points available in the 6 areas that supposedly make up the NET, I am continually amazed that no one has reverse engineered this thing.

The reason no one has posted it is because there's millions of data points, and you have to go trial and error to run your numbers to match theirs. Then when you get your weights to all the components to create an index that matches the official...

... then it has to match the NEXT EDITION of the official, or you're wrong on your weights somewhere and have to tweak it so that it gets both editions to match each time.

Then again with the next edition and the next edition, and the next edition.



Also, WarrenNolan.com has been posting NET ratings as if they're fact all season long with zero explanation of where it's coming from.
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Old 03-13-2019, 01:24 PM   #144 (permalink)
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Maybe I'm being a little salty, but '03 they looked terrible last night. Maybe a season full of playing crap teams dulled their edge. They also beat Duke back in November. I said they're really good, but to cool the 1-seed/#1 in the nation talk. If I had to put a percentage on it, I'd say under 50% chance they make the Final 4. A true number 1 doesn't put that performance on the court last night.
The crazy thing is that they've been without two of the best players most the season.

And they're playing this tournament with Tillie in a "I'm back, but not really back yet, so I'll be a rotation guy, not a starter." It's great to have someone that talented back, but at the same time, they've played 22 games without him and now suddenly roles are different in the WCC Semis.


Gonzaga is really, really good. They probably deserve the No. 1 overall seed. But

(a) who cares? The games are neutral site and geography based. They're going to play in San Jose or Salt Lake the first weekend, and Anaheim for the second weekend. The only difference between Overall No. 1 and Other No. 1 Seed is "which two seed gets shipped to their region, LSU or Michigan State." And it's not like LSU is surviving til the regional finals anyway.

(b) Your odds are kind of silly. A 50% chance of making the Final Four actually quite fantastic. Vegas is listing the odds for North Carolina, Michigan State and Virginia each at 22.2% Granted, Vegas is about balancing money to limit risk, and not "true likelihood" but they generally know what they're doing.
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Old 03-13-2019, 03:45 PM   #145 (permalink)
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Re: Miscellaneous Stuf

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The reason no one has posted it is because there's millions of data points, and you have to go trial and error to run your numbers to match theirs. Then when you get your weights to all the components to create an index that matches the official...

... then it has to match the NEXT EDITION of the official, or you're wrong on your weights somewhere and have to tweak it so that it gets both editions to match each time.

Then again with the next edition and the next edition, and the next edition.
Just imagine if I had a computer to help me with that, instead of doing it all by hand.
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Old 03-13-2019, 04:48 PM   #146 (permalink)
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Re: Miscellaneous Stuf

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Gonzaga lays a gigantic egg last night and the bubble gets smaller as St. Mary's takes the WCC. I watched the entire game and GU looked like Garbage U. They are always so overrated, they aren't #1 in the nation, shit they aren't even a 1-seed. If it hadn't been for their past performances (6 straight WCC tourneys) I'd have suggested they tanked in order to get 2 in from their conference last night it was that bad. You can't lose to a team you beat by 48 and 15 during the regular season. You don't lose your conference tournament when you get a bye into the semis, you're 16-0 against the WCC (17-0 after semis) with average MOV around 25 pts. Either Randy Bennett found the magic potion in the span of a week, or GU just didn't give a crap.

East Coast bias? Sure. But their "brand" of basketball or whatever you want to call it just doesn't pass muster when I think of what I see watching a fair number of Big12 and ACC basketball games. I think they're good. Really good. But the number 1 crap is over the top.
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Ok BI, dont go all Stephen A Smith on us. You are better than that. Gonazaga is a great team and they will be in the Final 4. They are the only team to beat Duke at full strength. They have earned benefit of the doubt.
Sounds like the Zags may have had a bad night, which as someone pointed out, is likely good for them. Their NET and Pomeroy rankings both sit at 2 even after the loss. And, St. Mary's is really no slouch with a NET of 34 and Pom of 29, so they could have been dancing anyway. Gonzaga did at least try to challenge themselves OOC. They beat Illinois (Current NET 105), Arizona (94) and Duke (3) in Maui, beat Texas A&M (82), won at Creighton (54), beat Washington (40), and their two losses prior to last night were in a tourney to Tennessee (6) and North Carolina (7).

Sounds like it was a bad night for the Zags. I'll let the conspiracy theorists decide if it was on purpose or not.
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Old 03-13-2019, 04:54 PM   #147 (permalink)
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I'll let the conspiracy theorists decide if it was on purpose or not.
The WCC, at Gonzaga's "request," changed their NCAA unit payout methodology.

The whole "lose for the good of the conference" thing (a) is never going to really happen and (b) is a drop in the bucket compared to what Gonzaga can now earn in the NCAAs.

Their split is "whomever earns it keeps a percentage, and that percentage goes up as they advance"
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Old 03-13-2019, 05:59 PM   #148 (permalink)
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I'll add it. Saint Joseph's should have been the National Champions in 2004 and deserved the #1 seed. Xavier was a bucket away from the Elite Eight that year. SMC will not be in the S16 this year.
Xavier was a bucket, and some bad officiating away from the Final Four that year. They lost to Duke in the regional final, not the Sweet Sixteen.
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Old 03-13-2019, 06:41 PM   #149 (permalink)
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Sounds like the Zags may have had a bad night, which as someone pointed out, is likely good for them. Their NET and Pomeroy rankings both sit at 2 even after the loss. And, St. Mary's is really no slouch with a NET of 34 and Pom of 29, so they could have been dancing anyway. Gonzaga did at least try to challenge themselves OOC. They beat Illinois (Current NET 105), Arizona (94) and Duke (3) in Maui, beat Texas A&M (82), won at Creighton (54), beat Washington (40), and their two losses prior to last night were in a tourney to Tennessee (6) and North Carolina (7).

Sounds like it was a bad night for the Zags. I'll let the conspiracy theorists decide if it was on purpose or not.
Stop making me sound unhinged 84. I had a rant and I stick by it!
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Old 03-13-2019, 08:40 PM   #150 (permalink)
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How is St. John's a "last 4 bye" with a 1-5 regular season record against Providence, DePaul, and Butler? Huh?
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