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Old 09-03-2019, 04:51 AM   #1 (permalink)
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Selection for NCAA Tourney Process

From CBS Sportsline Candid Coaches Series. Their observations are similar to many expressed on this board.

https://www.cbssports.com/college-ba...mpression=true
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Old 09-03-2019, 05:12 AM   #2 (permalink)
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Re: Selection for NCAA Tourney Process

Wonder what it said?
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Old 09-03-2019, 05:36 AM   #3 (permalink)
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Re: Selection for NCAA Tourney Process

Maybe this link will work better?

https://www.cbssports.com/college-ba...ction-process/
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Old 09-03-2019, 05:36 AM   #4 (permalink)
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Re: Selection for NCAA Tourney Process

Norlander has had a pretty good series of articles lately. I suggest checking them out.
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Old 09-08-2019, 10:03 AM   #5 (permalink)
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Re: Selection for NCAA Tourney Process

Wish they would publish the NET. Can't figure out the value of keeping it a secret.
Was thinking JP (or some stats guru) would have reverse engineered it by now.

Here's a befuddling look at one team from last year: Wofford.
Plays in lower rated conference (Southern) and goes on the road to get beat up by power teams. Somehow that plays into the math in a positive way.
They were 13th in the NET, and 22nd in RPI.
They lost to Miss State, Kansas and Oklahoma. (Quad 1 road losses)
Also Quad 1 losses to UNC at home, and Kentucky neutral.

But their record (along with Furman and UNCG) raised the Furman, UNCG and East Tenn State road games in conference to Quad 1 road wins for them.

Even if they had lost the Southern Conference tournament to UNCG, the committee would have (I think) had to take them with that sort of NET and RPI.

This year they go on the road to play Butler, Missouri, South Florida, UNC and Duke.
Brutal, but maybe it pays off for them on Selection Sunday if they don't win the SoCon.
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Old 09-08-2019, 03:46 PM   #6 (permalink)
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Re: Selection for NCAA Tourney Process

Quote:
Originally Posted by paulxu View Post
Wish they would publish the NET. Can't figure out the value of keeping it a secret.
Was thinking JP (or some stats guru) would have reverse engineered it by now.

Here's a befuddling look at one team from last year: Wofford.
Plays in lower rated conference (Southern) and goes on the road to get beat up by power teams. Somehow that plays into the math in a positive way.
They were 13th in the NET, and 22nd in RPI.
They lost to Miss State, Kansas and Oklahoma. (Quad 1 road losses)
Also Quad 1 losses to UNC at home, and Kentucky neutral.

But their record (along with Furman and UNCG) raised the Furman, UNCG and East Tenn State road games in conference to Quad 1 road wins for them.

Even if they had lost the Southern Conference tournament to UNCG, the committee would have (I think) had to take them with that sort of NET and RPI.

This year they go on the road to play Butler, Missouri, South Florida, UNC and Duke.
Brutal, but maybe it pays off for them on Selection Sunday if they don't win the SoCon.
I don't think Wofford's that befuddling. (well, except how they gave that team a fucking 13 seed!).

They played seven Q1 games on the road and went 3-4. Lost their only home chance to an NCAA title contender by only 11. And they went UNDEFEATED against everyone else.

The reason they were so high in the RPI and NET was because UNCG and Furman were ALSO GOOD. And ETSU wasn't bad.

They got eight league games against teams with .794, .733, and .688 win percentages.

That's what the WCC standings should look like if they had a fourth quality team.
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Old 09-08-2019, 03:49 PM   #7 (permalink)
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Re: Selection for NCAA Tourney Process

Also, if mid-major exclusion is at 32% of the biggest flaws, they must have only interviewed 32% mid-major coaches and 68% BCS coaches.
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Old 09-08-2019, 05:52 PM   #8 (permalink)
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Re: Selection for NCAA Tourney Process

What's befuddling is why can't the A10 create that set of circumstances.

Also, it shows that going on the road against Q1 and losing is not that detrimental.
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Old 09-09-2019, 05:37 AM   #9 (permalink)
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Re: Selection for NCAA Tourney Process

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What's befuddling is why can't the A10 create that set of circumstances.

Also, it shows that going on the road against Q1 and losing is not that detrimental.

The A10 needs to hit more home runs in the non conference and then this scenario will play out. I think this year will be a great year for the conference. We need Dayton, Davidson and VCU to kick ass and take names. Then we need the bottom to win games. If that happens, the conference will have strong numbers.
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Old 09-09-2019, 06:56 AM   #10 (permalink)
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Re: Selection for NCAA Tourney Process

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We need Dayton, Davidson and VCU to kick ass and take names.
Rhody needs to be included because in my opinion they have the toughest OOC.
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Old 09-09-2019, 08:29 AM   #11 (permalink)
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Re: Selection for NCAA Tourney Process

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Rhody needs to be included because in my opinion they have the toughest OOC.

From a national perspective, the 3 teams mentioned are all on peoples radar. Rhody absolutely has a great opportunity to add to the conference perception. I have a bad feeling they scheduled too hard and will struggle to come out with a good record.
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Old 09-11-2019, 01:09 PM   #12 (permalink)
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Re: Selection for NCAA Tourney Process

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What's befuddling is why can't the A10 create that set of circumstances.

Also, it shows that going on the road against Q1 and losing is not that detrimental.
That's the thing... It's not that detrimental to your TEAM. But it IS that detrimental to your CONFERENCE as a whole.

Creating those circumstances in the A-10 (our best teams goes 5-4 OOC against good SOS) would make us a one-bid league.


The top four of the SoCon went 47-1 against the bottom six of the SoCon last year. That's how Wofford got 8 Q1 games, because they had three good conference opponents in the league for once.


The "solution" is, as always, have everyone who's not in the convo for an at-large discussion for next year's tournament, schedule so they can win 10 OOC games easily.

The problem is, 10 teams think they can make the NCAA's this season. Really, the determining factor should be "Are you going to be co-favorites to with the A-10? No? Then schedule to help the league." Because the thing you fear is being 26-6 with an easy OOC SOS and left out?



There's a very similar argument to this going on with the New York Mets right now.
The Mets manager and brass are pissed at Noah Syndergaard because he wants to pitch to the backup catcher, instead of Wilson Ramos.

The Mets manager says "We need Ramos' bat in the lineup! We're trying to win!"

Syndergaard gives up 5.09 runs per nine innings when Ramos catches him, and 2.17 runs per nine innings when the backup, Tomas Nido, catches him.

Ramos is twice the hitter that Nido is, but Ramos' offense isn't 3 runs per game. No one is. The best hitter in baseball is worth MAYBE 1.25 runs per game.

So the Mets are starting Ramos when Syndergaard pitches, because "We need him to try and win 6-5"
When the pitcher and common sense are saying "Start the backup catcher, and it's easier to win 3-2."


That's what OOC scheduling is like: You go easy in OOC, because OOC wins is what makes your CONFERENCE SOS look hard.

Plus, no one good will play us on fair terms anyway. You can be 26-6 with a weak OOC SOS and say "Everyone went to 20 conference games, No BCS teams will play us!" None of them are going to admit "we WANTED to play an A-10 team and got turned down!"
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