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Old 06-07-2002, 02:17 PM   #1 (permalink)
 

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Bulls' Assessment: Present and Future

Here is my assessment of the Bulls offensively and defensively both for next season (2002-2003) and five years from now (2007-2008).

I trotted this out at RealGM a month or so ago and got very little response. I often am very critical of other folks' positions and rarely lay out my own preferences. So in the spirit of fairness, here is your chance to attack my assessments of the Bulls' players, now and in the future.

For me, putting this down numerically like this helps me guide my thinking about the Bulls' needs now and in the future.

I will use the following numbering system and will rate players at all of the positions that they could realistically play, offensively first and defensively second.

10 - top-5 in NBA
9 - top-12 in NBA
8 - top fifth of starters
7 - top third of starters
6 - above average starter
5 - average starter
4 - below average starter/great bench player
3 - bottom third of starters/good bench player
2 - bottom fifth of starters/solid bench player
1 - weak bench player
0 - complete project

Next Season (2002-2003)
C: Curry (5,2), Chandler (3,4), Bags (1,2)
PF: Chandler (3,5), Fizer (5,2), Curry (5,1)
SF: Rose (8,4), Robinson (4,4), Hassell (3,6), Fizer (4,1), Chandler (2,2), Hoiberg (2,1)
SG: Hassell (3,7), Rose (8,4), Crawford (5,2), Robinson (2,4), Hoiberg (2,2)
PG: Crawford (4,4), Best (4,3), Rose (7,2), Hoiberg (2,1)

That puts our starters at an average of (4.6,4.4), which seems about right for a team that probably will struggle to win 30 games without help from draft picks or free agents. While our frontcourt will be a great strength in the future, it again will be a major liability next year with only one credible defender (Chandler).

Five Years from Now (2007-2008)
C: Curry (9,7), Chandler (7,9), Bags (3,4)
PF: Chandler (8,9), Fizer (6,3), Curry (8,6)
SF: Rose (6,4), Robinson (5,5), Hassell (3,7), Fizer (6,2), Chandler (7,6), Hoiberg (2,1)
SG: Hassell (4,8), Rose (6,4), Crawford (6,4), Robinson (3,5), Hoiberg (2,2)
PG: Crawford (6,5), Best (1,1), Rose (5,1), Hoiberg (2,1)

This puts our starters at an average of (6.6,6.6), would probably would be enough for us to challenge for a championship. But our second five would average (3.6, 3.0), which I think is much weaker than most championship squads.

What I think that this suggests is (1) that we need a veteran big guy who can play defense, (2) that we need a PG/SG who can help us both now and five years from now, (3) it will be difficult to pair a SG/SF who isn't a good defender with Rose, especially as Rose gets older and has a harder time guarding the quicker SGs, (4) long term, we are pretty set at PF/C IF Fizer grows into his bench role, (5) we need a back-up PG for the future.

I see JWill filling a lot of holes on this team. He is a good shooter, good passer, and good defender. I see JWill as a (6,4) at the PG position next year and a (7,7) five years from now.

I still can't see how Dunleavy [(5,3), (6,5) at SF, (5,2), (6,3) at SG, (3,1), (7,4) at PF if he gets much bigger] is a good fit for this team. In my opinion he is very much like Jalen Rose), and we really can't afford to have another starter (either now or especially in the future) that we aren't comfortable putting on McGrady, Pierce, Carter, Bryant, J. Richardson, Lebron James, Finley, etc. And I am not comfortable sticking Dunleavy or Rose on these guys when we are challenging for a championship. I would feel far more comfortable with Hassell out there if we don't get a better option.

Butler [(5,5), (6,7) at SF, (4,6), (6,8) at SG] would be a better fit.

Last edited by Dan Rosenbaum; 06-07-2002 at 03:49 PM.
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Old 06-07-2002, 02:40 PM   #2 (permalink)
 

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Interesting analysis and well done. Let me say that while we differ on Dunleavy, my first hope is that we do get Jay Williams with the #2 pick which I do think will happen.
I especially agree with your assesment of Curry, I think you are close on Chandler, I hope Crawford will be better than your rating 5 years down the road. The mystery to me is Hassell. He is someone who could really blossom. I expected offense from him, but his defense really surprised me. His passing ability really improved by leaps and bounds at the end of his rookie season.
One thing none of us can know now, is what kind of tinkering will go on roster wise between now and then.
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