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Old 08-09-2015, 09:16 AM   #1 (permalink)
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Bulls How Derrick Rose and the Bulls were affected by rest last year

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A consistent storyline during last season (and seasons prior) was rest given to the Bulls and how they performed as a result. Ian Levy over at Nylon Calculus spells it out:

The Bulls were outscored by 3.2 points per 100 possessions on back-to-backs, about the same as the Brooklyn Nets' scoring margin last season. One two days of rest, they outscored opponents by 9.7 points per 100 possessions, a margin that would have ranked second in the league behind the Golden State Warriors across the entire season. So at team level, two days of rest was worth about 13 points per 100 possessions in net performance.

It's an even bigger difference with Derrick Rose in particular:



Earlier this year, Blog-pal Kevin Ferrigan introduced a new advanced metric dubbed "daily RAPM" (Daily Regularized Adjusted Plus Minus) or DRE. Calculations of DRE in this case verify what many fans have noted through the "eye test" when it comes to Rose.

For some background on the statistic itself: It expands upon earlier summary statistics, such as Hollinger's PER, which combine traditional box score statistics into a single snapshot of a player's performance.

Kevin provides thorough instructions on how to calculate DRE using the free statistical software, R. To get an idea of how DRE differs from previous summary statistics like PER, we can examine the formulas side by side:

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Hollinger's PER:

PTS + 0.4 * FG 0.7 * FGA 0.4*(FTA FT) + 0.7 * ORB + 0.3 * DRB + STL + 0.7 * AST + 0.7 * BLK 0.4 * PF TOV.

Ferrigan's DRE:
PTS + .2*TRB + 1.7*STL + .535*BLK + .5*AST .9*FGA .35*FTA 1.4*TOV .136*Minutes
We see that the difference between these metrics is the relative importance (weights) they place on each box score statistic. For example, the formulas disagree on if a block is .7x (PER) or .535x (PER) as valuable as a point. The advantage to Ferrigan's formula is that his weights are completely data driven, meaning he allows the numbers themselves to determine exactly how much each boxscore category should be worth, rather than making educated guesses based on intuition.

Now as to what the Bulls can do with this knowledge? Levy suggests that the difference is so stark that perhaps the Bulls should simply sit Rose more on back-to-backs. The backcourt depth poses an obviously problem with this, however. Maybe it's a result of the knee surgeries that will subside a bit this coming year, meaning a more consistently good Rose.
http://www.blogabull.com/2015/7/31/9...496.1429656324
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Old 08-11-2015, 11:10 AM   #2 (permalink)
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Re: How Derrick Rose and the Bulls were affected by rest last year

This past season was Rose's first year playing after 2 knee surgeries, not to mention the rust factor and conditioning. It was expected (at least to me) to be noticeably worse than his MVP year, and it definitely was. You don't just jump into elite playing shape right away. So it's not surprising he benefited more than most players with extra rest days. Alot of guys returning from major injuries need a full season under their belt to bounce back 100%. I am just happy that Rose finished the season on a high note from a physical standpoint and can enter next season 100% healthy.
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Old 08-11-2015, 11:17 AM   #3 (permalink)
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Re: How Derrick Rose and the Bulls were affected by rest last year

The most interesting thing from that article has nothing to do with the Bulls or Rose. I love the idea of regression-based multipliers within the PER formula for player evaluation. I tried to do that myself a few years back but didn't have the sample-size to pull it off. Glad to see someone will be tracking it this year.
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Old 08-13-2015, 03:50 PM   #4 (permalink)
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Re: How Derrick Rose and the Bulls were affected by rest last year

I am happy to see that the statistics prove out what many of were seeing last year. Rose definitely tended to not play very well in the 2nd game of back to backs.

Hopefully, this year he does a better job. The Bulls need Rose to consistently play at a higher level all season long. Any continued injury issues will have a very negative effect on the Bulls season.

Unfortunately, I do not think the Bulls will go far if they have to depend on Hinrich or Brooks to lead the team on any regular basis.

My only hope is that the change in coaching staff will allow the Bulls to make needed changes quicker, rather than sticking with poor performing players.
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