Yes, next summer is going to be real interesting with respect to free agency.
Teams like the Clippers, Nets, and Utah with boatloads of cap space will be scrambling to re-sign players.
The Clippers for instance will have Kandi, Odom, Maggette, Dre Miller, and Brand to re-sign. Otherwise, they'll need to go after another marque player. Miller, Dre, and Brand all want the max and Odom and Maggette will want a lot as well. So to be realistic, the Clippers will have a tough time just keep their nucleus in tact, much less competing for another big name FA.
The Nets will need to re-sign a lot their players as well. Jason Kidd has made an excellent case for being a max player and Kenyon Martin will want a considerable salary as well. The upside to the Nets is that they'll still have team options on Van Horn (which they'll forfiet) and Jefferson (which they'll retain) , as well as MacCullogh (keep) and Collins (undecided). If the Nets sign Kidd, they'll have a legitimate chance to go after another marque player, perhaps a Tim Duncan or Elton Brand. The way I see it, it all centers around then signing Kidd to an extension.
Utah will lose Malone and Stockton to retirement. Kirlelenko will be the only player under contract in 03/04 (other than this year's draft picks). Utah will be in a predicament. I expect Sloan to retire along with the Mailman and Stockton. That'll leave them in the same boat that Chicago was in 3 years ago. A boatload of money and no takers. Let's face it, who wants to play in Utah for God's sake?
Although these three teams will have a lot of cap space. I'm only threatened by Rod Thorn and the Nets.
Of the teams hovering between $20M and $30M of committed cap dollars, I am most concerned about Denver, Orlando, and possibly Miami.
In 03/04, Denver will have only $22M committed and they'll still have Sitka, Nene, and next years draft class which is likely to include LeBron James (if Cleveland doesn't get lucky). If Denver was able to sign a guy like Duncan or even Jermaine O'Neal, they could be trouble.
Cleveland is in the worst shape. Coupled with a rich history of being losers and making dumb trades, it's not likely that an impact player will sign to play in that armpit of a city. Cleveland's strategy should be to build around Miles and Wagner through the draft. Diop will be the X-factor. If he blossoms, they may have an outside chance to attract a reputable free agent.
Detroit will be in a predictament as well. They'll need to sign or fill positions for every player except Wallace (including Stackhouse and CRob.). With a weak draft this year and little chance of them slipping into the lottery next summer, they're destined for mediocrity for a long time.
Indy will have to build around Croshere, Harrington, and Tinsley. They'll need to fill the void left by both Millers (Reggie when he retires) and Brad when he tests the free agent market again). Again since Indy hasn't made a significant impact through the draft over past two years, they're going to be begging for someone to take their money. At best case scenario, they're no better than they are today. Barely making or missing the playoffs.
Seattle is in trouble too. They'll be forced to build around Calvin Booth and Radmanovic. Unless they're able to re-sign Lewis and Payton (or trade Payton for a promising young star-on-the-rise), they're going to be hurting. Playing in the West isn't going to help their chances of signing a big name FA either.
Orlando should be in pretty good shape. If Grant Hill can finally recover from his 2-year injury, they'll have a pretty good team in place (TMac, Hill, Hunter, Garrity, Griffith, and Humprey). Add to that Tim Duncan (whos already expressed an intest in playing near Mickey), they could contend for the title.
Miami will have Jones, Grant, and Butler, which will he a pretty solid 2-3-4 line up. The problem is that they'll need to sign a PG and C. While servicable PGs come a dime a dozen, quality C's don't. I wouldn't be surprised to see ol' Riles make a run for the Kandi man next summer. It won't be enough to win a title, but it may give them a legit chance to make the Eastern Conference Finals.
San Antonio will only have Rose and Parker under contract. They'll need to find a replacement for the Admirable as well as a capable SG. To make matters worse, they'll need to find a way to keep Tim Duncan. Unless they change the name from the Alamo Dome to DuncanDome, I don't see Timmy re-signing with the Spurs. Duncan waivered on re-signing with the Spurs the last time around when he had a decent supporting cast, I'm not seeing the incentive for him to do it again.
Lastly, the lowly Wizards. This team is destined for the cellar. Michael is the only thing from keeping them from having the worst record in basketball. They'll have Haywood, Kwame, Jefferies, and Dixon under contract with a roster with more holes than a Dunkin Donut Shop (not to be confused with a Duncan Do-not Shop). The Wizards will have no big name players to build around either.
