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Discussion Starter · #1 · (Edited)
Let's put an end to the "2006 draft is going to weak" speculation, can we?

b\c if underclassmen declare, and they most usually ALWAYS do, the 2006 draft will not be nearly as weak as some people are claiming it will be..

True, if Oden were in the draft it would have that "Star" power at the top of the draft to further strengthen\solidify it...but then again several of the last few drafts have not had such a player either and have appeared to be pretty good drafts...

TOP 14 (lottery) players taken in the last five drafts:

2005 - A.Bogut, M.Williams, D.Williams, C.Paul, R.Felton, M.Webster, C.Villanueva, C.Frye, I.Diogu, A.Bynum, F.Vasquez, A.Korolev, S.May, R.McCants

2004 - D.Howard, E.Okafor, B.Gordon, S.Livingston, D.Harris, J.Childress L.Deng, R.Araujo, A.Iguodala, L.Jackson, A.Biedrins, R.Swift, S.Telfair, K.Humphries

2003 - L.James*, D.Milicic, C.Anthony, C.Bosh, D.Wade, C.Kaman, K.Hinrich, TJ.Ford, M.Sweentney, J.Hayes, M.Pietrus, N.Collison, M.Banks, L.Ridnour

2002 -Y.Ming*, J.Williams, M.Dunleavy, D.Gooden, N.Tkitishvilli, D.Wagner, N.Hilario, C.Wilcox, A.Stoudamire, C.Butler, J.Jeffries, M.Ely, M.Haislip, F.Jones,

2001 - K.Brown, T.Chandler, P.Gasol. E.Curry, J.Richardson, S.Battier, E.Griffin, S.Diop, R.White, J.Johnson, K.Brown, V.Radmanovic, R.Jefferson, T.Murphy, S.Hunter

* - So in the last 5 drafts there have been TWO "franchise" players whom were defined BEFORE the draft...LeBron James and Yao Ming....That is not a lot...

The biggest difference of course is the influx of HS players, which will be missing in this years' draft...However, I think that the loss of HS players, will be offset in 2006 by the inclusion of more top underclassmen...particularly Fr\So....Guys like Tyrus Thomas, Rudy Gay, Joakim Noah, LaMarcus Aldridge, Marcus Williams (Jr), P.O'Bryant, A.Horford, G.Davis to name a few...

There is no doubt that Oden & other HS guys like Kevin Durant & Brandan Wright would significantly strengthen the 2006 draft...but there still will be several good NBA prospects available in 2006...If Oden\Wright\Durant were in this draft some of these guys probably wouldn't declare....

I broke out the last few drafts in groups of players...Players who established themselves or rose their stock considerably through their play, players whom were already highly regarded and played well or stellar throughout the year & highly regarded european players...what is missing of course is HS players, but this can and will IMO, be partially offset in the 2006 draft by the inclusion of more college underclassmen....

Not as well known college players whose play either during the year or through tournament play established themselves as lottery players: D.Wade, C.Frye, D.Harris, D.Williams, I.Diogu - 2006 Tyrus Thomas, Joakim Noah, Brandon Roy, Randy Foye, Patrick O'Bryant

Highly recruited college players whose play either during the year or in tourney play established themselves as lottery players: M.Williams, C.Anthony, C.Paul, E.Okafor, B.Gordon - 2006 Rudy Gay, LaMarcus Aldridge, Adam Morrison, Rodney Carney, S.Williams, M.Williams, A.Horford

Highly regarded eurpoean prospects: D.Milicic, F.Vasquez, N.Tskitishvilli, N.Hilario - 2006- A.Bargnani, T.Splitter

Now I may not have every player in the right group, but it is close enough to make a point. I think the "theme" for lack of a better word, for the 2006 draft will be the inclusion of more (relatively) "unheralded" players...

IMO, here is how I see the top lottery prospects (rankings wise, and for whom I would like to see POR get)
1) Tyrus Thomas
2) Adam Morrison
* These two are really close IMO..as I place both of them a tier above any other prospect. As much as I like Morrison, I do think POR would be better served with Thomas as their pick.
3)R.Gay
4)J.Noah
5)L.Aldridge
6)B.Roy
7)A.Bargnani
8) Shelden Williams
9)A.Horford
10)R.Foye
11)Marcus Williams
12)R.Carney
13)T.Splitter
14)JJ Redick

** - and that is leaving out guys like Mardy Collins, Ronnie Brewer, Patrick O'Bryant, Glen Davis & Josh Boone

and what if guys like Shawne Williams, Jordan Farmar, Kyle Lowry, Brandon Rush, Jeff Green, Marcus Williams, Roy Hibbert, Josh McRoberts, Darius Washington Jr, Rajon Rondo, Ron Steele, etc... declare? It is very possible that a few of them will...

But overall, I look at the possible\probable 2006 lotery and I see it as strong (and in some cases stronger) than ANY of the last five drafts...Of Course ANY draft that has LeBron James or Yao Ming in it, has an element to it that the 2006 draft just cannot match, but even in those drafts, I would argue that the OVERALL DEPTH is not as strong as the 2006 draft will potentially be...

I think the 2003 draft was a very good "overall" draft in retrospect and is a good comparison to the potential 2006 draft....So let's take a closer look at the 1st 10 picks, outside of Lebron James, and in terms of overall depth (lottery wise):

Darko Milicic meet Andrea Bargnani - Whom many think is a much better prospect than Milicic ever was. One big difference b\t Bargnani and Milicic is that Andrea plays for a top tier Euroleague team and is putting up some eye popping performances...he appears much more refined than Milicic was at this point.

Carmelo Anthony met Tyrus Thomas & Rudy Gay - Now Anthony was much better known as a prospect than Thomas was, but both them have played huge roles and put up eye popping performances in leading their teams throughout the year and through the tourney...Carmelo was more polished, but Thomas' potential upside is significant to merit IMO...Thomas can do things Melo could only dream of doing...Gay has been hyped as much as Anthony was, but his tourney production was not nearly the same, yet the skillset is as good or better than Anthony's....

Chris Bosh meet Joakim Noah or LaMarcus Aldridge - Both had good years, both are still young and both look to get only better over time...just like Bosh has. Aldridge was rather unspectacular in tourney play (same as Bosh if I recall correctly), whereas Noah has had a great tourney run....

D.Wade meet Randy Foye & Brandon Roy - Now Wade is unbeleivable, but Foye was spectacular during the tourney and througout the year just as Wade was, same can be said for Roy who like Wade appears to have the complete package and abilitiy to take over a game...

C.Kaman meet Patrick O'Bryant & Tiago Splitter - Kaman has been much better than I certainly thought he would be...2006 potentially has several solid if unspectacular big man prospects, Splitter and O'Bryant being two of the better ones IMO

K.Hinrich meet Adam Morrison and JJ Redick - Hinrich too was questioned for his athleticism, but his IQ and other intangibles are unquestioned now. Niether Morrison or Redick have Hinrich's overall package\skillset, but each excels over Hinrich in certain areas. All three were very good college players whose NBA projections were all over the place.

TJ.Ford meet Marcus Williams (and\or Rajon Rondo\Darius Washington Jr if they declare) - A speedy PG who established himself as the best player on a talented team. On a team with Rudy Gay, Josh Boone & other top level talent, M.Williams was simply spectacular and often the best player on the floor, he doesn't have close to Ford's speed (or slight build) but he has very good size for a PG, and is just an overall very good prospect...

M.Sweetney meet Shelden Williams - I think Williams is underated, and I think his career will more closely resemble Elton Brand's than it will Sweetney's...A great college player and hustler who will be effective in the NBA...

Now I am NOT trying to make player vs player comparisons per se, nor am I trying to say Randy Foye for example will be a Dwayne Wade type player\impact in the NBA, b\c who knew that Wade would be as spectacular as he has been? What I am trying to point out is that the overall DEPTH in terms of quality lottery prospects is every bit as good and quite possibly better than it was in other drafts, even 2003 which was a very strong draft in retrospect...

Now 2003 will always be better regarded than 2006 b \c I conveniently left out a guy named LeBron James, and that is the one legacy of 2006...No Oden....But I do think there are MORE potential quality players available in 2006 than there was in 2003...

Having said that, ask yourselves this....If James wasn't in the 2003 draft would you, looking back on it, still view it as a relatively strong draft?

I think the answer is yes...most people would....Dwayne Wade...Chris Bosh...Carmelo Anthony...Kirk Hinrich& TJ Ford have all become very good NBA players, some would even argue the best players on their respective teams....

I think 2006 has a very good chance to be a better version of that draft, which in terms of draft history is pretty damm good, and nowhere near the "weak" label being attatched to it....

As a POR fan, all I can hope is that the 2006 draft IS a similiar\better version of a James'-less 2003 draft and that POR finds one of those players.....
 

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when we say weak, there are no team makers or franchise guys. Theres no lebron,jordan,shaq,duncan, and so on. Since we are losing to get the best possible draft pick, I would like that to happen when theres some players who might actually help us out. All I see are a bunch of guys will need time to mature, like we don't have enough guys on the team who need time. Our whole team is young. We need older guys to show them the ropes. Not more rookies. Who's gonna help em, darius miles? that guy still has the mentality of a spoiled teenager.
 

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Nice summary of the draft picks.

While there are no automatic stars in this draft, there are a number of players who should be complementary pieces of a successful team. The key for the Blazers is to determine their greatest need and draft to fill that need.

As I have said, I believe the greatest need is at SG, where Brandon Roy is the best fit. Also, this team needs a proven player, not a project who will need time to develop.

Roy plugs right in at the 2 guard spot, moving Dixon to the bench and sliding Martell over to the 3. Martell and Roy will be able to allow the Blazers to spread the floor, creating more opportunities for Telfair and Jack to create and allowing more room for Zach to operate. Joel cleans up the misses at the 5.
 

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You know...I just hate it when someone posts without much thought. You know what I mean, Kmurph??






:biggrin:
 

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Thank you for the nice summary.
In truth, we really don't know how strong or weak a draft is until the players are in the NBA a year or two. Remember, the talk was all LeBron James and Carmelo Anthony, but Dwyane Wade is perhaps the cream of that bunch. Looking over your years, I see high picks who did not do much and middle picks who were better than expected.
IMHO, the Blazers need to do a couple of things pre-draft:
1. Decide who on the present roster they want to keep
2. Make a list of needs, and prioritize them
3. Draft accordingly.

Also, don't the Blazers have 2 #1 picks? True, one of them is the Pistons, if I recall, so not a high pick but who knows, they may find a John Stockton or a Michael Finley or a Tony Parker with a low pick and that would not bother me at all.
 

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Discussion Starter · #7 ·
when we say weak, there are no team makers or franchise guys.
Going INTO the draft there doesn't appear to be such a player...but there wasn't a "franchise" player in 3 of the last 5 drafts either. Sure, I...like you would LOVE for there to be a CLEARLY DEFINED one in this draft, but that doesn't mean that there isn't a very good player available for POR in this draft, or that a guy not VIEWED as a "franchise" player will become one....

Is Dwayne Wade a "franchise" player, Chirs Bosh? Amare Stoudamire? I don't remember any of those 3 guys being labeled as can't miss "franchise" players prior to their drafts...

What about Kirk Hinrich? TJ Ford? J.Richardson? B.Gordon? E.Okafor? P.Gasol? Would any of these guys help POR? Even if POR can't find their "franchise" guy, I disagree that a guy with the impact of let's say a Kirk Hinrich or Emeka Ofafor wouldn't significantly help this team.

I think that you are missing the bigger picture here. POR needs A LOT of help, I think there are potentially similiar impact type players in the 2006 draft and for POR to pass up a chance to get one b\c there isn't a clearly defined "franchise"" player would be foolish IMO.

We need older guys to show them the ropes. Not more rookies. Who's gonna help em, darius miles?
You mean guys like Damon Stoudamire, Shareef Abdur Rahim, Bonzi Wells, Nick Van Exel, Derek Anderson and Ruben Pattereson?

Or do you mean Steve Blake, Juan Dixon, Theo Ratliff and Brian Skinner?

How much success has the team had with all of those veterans?

You know...I just hate it when someone posts without much thought. You know what I mean, Kmurph??
Well I am not an expert...but I did stay at a Ramada Inn last night.....

Was it Ramada? lol....
 

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crandc said:
Thank you for the nice summary.
In truth, we really don't know how strong or weak a draft is until the players are in the NBA a year or two. Remember, the talk was all LeBron James and Carmelo Anthony, but Dwyane Wade is perhaps the cream of that bunch. Looking over your years, I see high picks who did not do much and middle picks who were better than expected.
IMHO, the Blazers need to do a couple of things pre-draft:
1. Decide who on the present roster they want to keep
2. Make a list of needs, and prioritize them
3. Draft accordingly.

Also, don't the Blazers have 2 #1 picks? True, one of them is the Pistons, if I recall, so not a high pick but who knows, they may find a John Stockton or a Michael Finley or a Tony Parker with a low pick and that would not bother me at all.
I'm starting to hope if we don't get a top 3 pick - we should trade the pick(s) for future or some other player to fill needs. Adding a low first rounder to this roster would be stupid. We have projects at all positions except PF.

Blake, Telfair, Jack - PG - keepers for next year - no additions/subtractions needed.

Dixon, Webster, Jack - SG - MW is the future, Dixon the present - it would be nice to add a better 1-3 year starter here - depending the cost of course.

Outlaw, Miles, Khryapa - SF - Outlaw is the future, Khryapa super-sub, Miles needs to go - it would be nice to add a better 1-3 year starter here as well - depending on cost. Simply drafting Morrison might be the right answer. Not convinced though.

Zach, Skinner - PF - up in the air on this position - if we could improve or change - my feeling is we should do it.

Joel, Theo, Ha - C - up in the air on this position - if we could improve or change - Joel, if at MLE should be resigned, otherwise let him walk.

This season did so little in regard to establishing who to keep - its not really funny. I only believe Telfair, Jack, Webster, Outlaw, Khryapa, Zach, Skinner, Joel and Ha are worth building futures with. The rest are trade bait or stop-gaps if you ask me.

Again this off season we need strong negotiating and trading capability - if all we do is draft where we have picks - its gonna be a long, long, long recovery.
 

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its 30th but we also have the 33rd so if we can trade the two for a higher pick.

I would say pick the best player aviable with the high pick, be it naoh tyrus or ammo then trade for a higher pick for a sg sf pf or c depending on who we draft prior.

IF we go for naoh/tyrus we get a sf or sg
if we go for ammo then we draft a pf, pf/c, center
 

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Something to think about as well, the draft should be getting stronger over the next few years as more players go to school. In about 2 years it should be back to the strength it was before all the high schoolers starting coming out in droves.
 

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The draft is weak no doubt about it. I would trade my first round pick for a pick next year, if I could. Many of these guys are bench players (to say probably 80%) before underclassmen declare.
 

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Discussion Starter · #12 ·
HKF -

You think Tyrus Thomas will be a bench player?

Rudy Gay?

I completely disagree, particulary when outside 3 or so HS guys the rest of the early 2007 mock drafts are comprised of many of the SAME players that could be in the 2006 draft...
 

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When they hit the league, you'll change your tune, that's all I'll say. Tyrus Thomas is more raw then Stromile Swift was. This draft has disaster written all over it, unless guys like Ronald Steele, Jeff Green, Sammy Mejia, Cedric Simmons, Malik Hairston and a few others enter. I would rather have a pick next season, then this season.

The potential of a lot of these guys is limited. Rudy Gay is the equivalent of a 2nd banana. I have never been overly enamored with him.
 

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Discussion Starter · #14 ·
Well,, outside of Oden, Brandan Wright and Kevin Durant (wher is he in the list in your sig?)...I don't see any of the other "potential" players in the 2007 draft having more upside than many of the guys mentioned in my 2006 list above...

I agree with you about Rudy Gay, a team picking him high is banking that he becomes something he has not shown himself to be...a go-to-guy...I don't think he will suddenly become such a player...

I know a lot of people don't like Morrison, but I really do think he will be able to score on guys in the NBA just like he did in college...I thought Don McLean's point about Morrison today on the Rome show was very accurate in stating that Morrison mkaes difficult shots\plays look much easier than they are...He will do so in the pro's as well.

Tyrus Thomas\Joakim Noah are both big, athletic and young, I don't see how anyone could immediately discount them as bench players...

I don't know a lot about Bargnani, but he has gotten a lot of positive talk from scouts and unlike many previous european wonders, he IS performing in high level european league bball....

I don't think Aldridge will be a star player, but he will be an effective starter at some point in the NBA, you don't agree?

Brandon Roy, Al Horford, Randy Foye, Shelden Williams and Marcus Williams.....Someone out that list is going to be a better pro than everyone thinks they will be, that is usually ALWAYS the case...

Look, no one thought Dwayne Wade, Kirk Hinrich or Pau Gasol would be the players they turned out to be, and yet they all (and many more like them) proved to be far better players than peoiple gave them credit for being.


If Marquette hadn't made the tourney in 2003, would Wade still have been a top 5 pick? I don't think he would have been...I don't see why players cannot emerge like Wade did, or blossom into better pro's than college players, like Hinrich did....

I think there are a few such players in this draft...I am surprised you don't...
 

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Bosh was a true freshman who had a far superior season to either Noah, Aldrige or Thomas. Aldrige is a sophmore. Noah is the age of a college senior (he's like 2 months younger than Hilton Armstrong and only 9 months younger than Bosh). Thomas is a redshirt freshman who's played 3 years of basketball.

Comparing any of these guys to Bosh is just ridiculous. None of them will be in an All-Star game within 3 years of being drafted at age 21, or even close. Don't get over excited because of a couple of weeks in the NCAA tournament.
 

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kmurph said:
1) Tyrus Thomas
2) Adam Morrison
* These two are really close IMO..as I place both of them a tier above any other prospect. As much as I like Morrison, I do think POR would be better served with Thomas as their pick.
thats funny we have some many zags fans that u are afraid people will jump on u so u have to love morrison just because he is well liked.U might not be doing this but it was funny to me.
 

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Watching the tourney back when Kansas made their run and rooting for them cuz I'm friends of friends of Aaron Miles, I flat out said Hinrich would be the best of the group (Collison, Miles, Gooden, Hinrich and their left-hand shooting guard who I can't think of at the moment. Langdon?). He had it all - he was clutch, he could shoot, had ball handling skills and came from a great program.
 

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Discussion Starter · #19 ·
thats funny we have some many zags fans that u are afraid people will jump on u so u have to love morrison just because he is well liked.U might not be doing this but it was funny to me.
I don't know what you are talking about here...I could care less how many Zag fans there are...I like Morrison a lot, and think he is going to be a good possibly very good NBA player....

But I was pretty amazed watching Tyrus Thomas in the tourney, he was simply unbelievable...


I heartily disagree with those who think that players drafted in the 2006 draft will never amount to anything...quite frankly, it is an easy position to take, but the reality is EVERY YEAR a few guys, whom no one thought would be anything in the NBA, suddenly are...yet we are supposed to believe that this year is different?

I don't think so...
 
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