I would think that if the top three projected picks this year stay out of the draft it would only strengthen next years draft....Did I misunderstand the question?
I would think that if the top three projected picks this year stay out of the draft it would only strengthen next years draft....Did I misunderstand the question?
Well My question is round about. People are griping we need to trade our pick since it's sucha weak draft this year, the 3 mentioned included. So if they don't declare and are in the draft next year are they themselves better?
AKA is Drafting Morrison next year better than drafting him this year?
Example...I would imagine that next years draft would project like this
Oden
Gay
Aldridge
Morrison
So if those guys stick this year, why trade the pick? 2 shots at Oden? Yeah right like any team sitting in the bottom 10 of the league right now is going to trade an unprotected pick for just about anything.
Well My question is round about. People are griping we need to trade our pick since it's sucha weak draft this year, the 3 mentioned included. So if they don't declare and are in the draft next year are they themselves better?
AKA is Drafting Morrison next year better than drafting him this year?
So if we pick Morrison in 2006 we have to wait a year for him to develop so he can contribute in 2007/2008. But, if we draft him in 2007 he'll be ready to contribute in 2007/2008.
I would think that if the top three projected picks this year stay out of the draft it would only strengthen next years draft....Did I misunderstand the question?
If any of Gay/Aldridge/Morrison/Bargagni don't come out this year, it strengthens the 2007 draft. I'm not sure if any or all of them would be drafted higher than Julian Wright, Kevin Durant, or Brandan Wright (if they all come out), but it seems like any of them would be top-5 picks, minimum, strengthening the 2007 draft.
I think that the key to this year's draft is the freshmen Tyrus Thomas and Josh McRoberts. Either (or both) of them could be top-6 if they come out this year, and it's conceivable they could bump down one (or more) of what many see as the "big four" of the 2006 draft.
So if those guys stick this year, why trade the pick? 2 shots at Oden? Yeah right like any team sitting in the bottom 10 of the league right now is going to trade an unprotected pick for just about anything.
Two shots at Oden is one reason. Another, painful, reason is that by not having a lottery pick this year we would have a better shot with our OWN pick at getting Oden.
I don't have any illusions that our lottery pick this year is going to get us into the playoffs, but he should be a guy that steps into the rotation (if not the starting lineup), and will help us win a few more games. Winning a few more games means an inferior chance at winning Oden.
Two shots at Oden is one reason. Another, painful, reason is that by not having a lottery pick this year we would have a better shot with our OWN pick at getting Oden.
I don't have any illusions that our lottery pick this year is going to get us into the playoffs, but he should be a guy that steps into the rotation (if not the starting lineup), and will help us win a few more games. Winning a few more games means an inferior chance at winning Oden.
So if we pick Morrison in 2006 we have to wait a year for him to develop so he can contribute in 2007/2008. But, if we draft him in 2007 he'll be ready to contribute in 2007/2008.
I'm not saying he should stay in school another year. That is not the question. Assuming you would be certain of drafting Morrison this year versus being certain you would draft Morrison next year, then next year would be the preferable scenario.
The question I'm answering is the following by Schilly.
I'm not saying he should stay in school another year. That is not the question. Assuming you would be certain of drafting Morrison this year versus being certain you would draft Morrison next year, then next year would be the preferable scenario.
No.. We arleady have an extremely young team. Two more this year is not what we need IMO. Part of me thinks we don't even need one more young guy. How about trading our pick this year and next for an impact player now? (When I say impact player, I don't mean Eddie Curry.. what a terrible trade by NY)
yes. If of course it were straight across or included a scrub like Dixon. The probability of us actually getting the first overall pick isn't a lock by any means. With a draft of let's say Aldridge/Gay, or Bargnani/ Morrison and with any kind of off season trade to even out our roster we could have a team next year with a low lottery pick
Telfair/Jack
Webster/??? or ???/Webster
Gay or Morrison/ Outlaw
Randolph/Aldridge or Bargnani
Joel/Aldridge or Joel Bargnani
The team might contend for a low playoff spot with any luck
the funny thing about drafting morrison at the "expense of getting oden", it implies that the team will improve a lot with Morrison and that he's better than his detractors think. Which is kind of funny, because if he's good enough to improve the team out of the top spot in the lotto, he must be pretty damn good then.
And if he's good enough to get us closer to the playoffs (I'm not saying I think he is, or that he will) it'd mean he's a lot better than people think.
Getting him, imho, won't alter our chances at getting Oden enough to justify not getting him. Either way, our best chance of getting him is 25%. And thats if all the balls bounce in the right places.
Is it worth the (at best) 25% chance of getting him, at the risk of having another really bad season? I could understand if this was based soley on the # of wins you do have vs a weighted system, but it's not. The risk they take not drafting a player this year, be it one of the 4 mentioned, at the chance at getting a top pick next year, is pretty big.
Is it worth it? maybe, but it seems to be a very difficult one to make so easily, as fans tend to think it is. The chances of the team trading for what will end up being the top pick, is nill. At most, the chances of them getting the #1 pick is 25%, and thats implying that A: the team doesn't improve at all and B: they make trades that rean't terribly realistic.
no way we throw all of our marbles in the oden sweepstakes, this isn't lebron james we're talking about here. He's hyped ,but not a sure thing. If we throw our marbles into something, i'd rather it'd be OJ Mayo.
Most years I would say absolutely yes. Because (a) I would think we'd have a better pick the following year, and (b) I want to get good prospects on the roster as soon as possible.
But the draft next year will be better than this year's, IMO, even if you leave Oden out. And leaving Oden in, I don't think it will even be close.
No. We don't have the necessary talent to ever be a very good team unless we get a LOT of breaks. We're this bad, and we should make the most of it... as painful as it is to be one of the worst teams in the NBA.
I don't see us trading our lottery pick this year, period, and certainly not for a lottery pick next year (because I don't think anyone would be willing to risk missing on Oden). But if we could get another shot at Oden by moving this year's pick, I would be in favor of it.
Ed O.
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