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Discussion Starter #1
Quite possibly the fewest First Week of Feb NCAA Locks in history.

San Diego St, Gonzaga, Dayton
Baylor, Kansas, WVU
Duke, Louisville, Florida St
Michigan St, Maryland
Villanova, Butler
Oregon
LSU

That's only 15.
 

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JP, what are your thoughts on this Big Ten nonsense with 12 teams being "in" or at least strong candidates at this point? tOSU a 9? Minnesota? Losses to DePaul/Utah? If there is ever a season to reform what the qualifications for postseason play are, this should spur it. It won't. But it should.
 

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JP, what are your thoughts on this Big Ten nonsense with 12 teams being "in" or at least strong candidates at this point? tOSU a 9? Minnesota? Losses to DePaul/Utah? If there is ever a season to reform what the qualifications for postseason play are, this should spur it. It won't. But it should.
Part of it is that there's still TEN conference games lefts for these guys, and they can't all win; while the bracket experts aren't PROJECTING, they are merely giving you a "if Selection Sunday was TODAY" situation.

Part of it is the lack of tiers. Stud Top Tier teams are losing more, which tightens the pack and puts more people in the race.

So you basically have:
T-1. Maryland and Michigan State (Locks, 15-6 combined)

T-3. 10-way free for all (57-50 combined)

T-13. Nebraska and Northwestern (3-19 combined)


How many bids the Big Ten gets depends on if those 10 teams sort themselves into three tiers (Tiers 2, 3 and 4). Tiers 1-2-3 will get in.

But generally speaking, with 10 teams with 10 games each left, someone’s going 7-3 and someone is going 3-7. If they all go 5-5, they they’ll all be massive Q1 numbers and a ton will get in.
 

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Just going by VCU's NET and bubble talk at this moment in time it is about winning the games you are supposed to win, road wins against anyone boosts the NET and having a good win.
 

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Thanks for the explanation JP, but I just don't see it. Purdue, Indiana, and Minnesota are 1-8, 1-7, 1-7 in Q1 games. Rutgers is 1-5 Q1. Their Q2 numbers are better but not great at 4-1,2-0, 4-2, 4-2. You've always said numbers like those just proves you can play a bunch of good teams and lose a bunch of games. As can anyone. By comparison, SLU is 1-3, 4-2, and 11-0 in Q3/4 games. So why is SLU not even being considered?
 

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Thanks for the explanation JP, but I just don't see it. Purdue, Indiana, and Minnesota are 1-8, 1-7, 1-7 in Q1 games. Rutgers is 1-5 Q1. Their Q2 numbers are better but not great at 4-1,2-0, 4-2, 4-2. You've always said numbers like those just proves you can play a bunch of good teams and lose a bunch of games. As can anyone. By comparison, SLU is 1-3, 4-2, and 11-0 in Q3/4 games. So why is SLU not even being considered?
Have you every heard of Maryville University?
 

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Resume of four teams with NET rankings between 34 and 41

Team A:
Record 13-9
Q1 4-8
Q2 3-1

Team B:
Record 16-6
Q1 1-4
Q2 2-2

Team C:
Record 17-5
Q1 1-3
Q2 5-1

Team D:
Record 13-8
Q1 3-4
Q2 2-4

Assuming the Committee is looking at the last two in, which two teams pass the “eye test” ?
 

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I thought the "eye test" was watching them play?

Anyhow, Team C has lost a Q3/4 game and with just 1 win in 4 tries at Q1 I'm comfortable leaving them out. Team B is only .500 against Q2 and at the Mendoza line on Q1 chances. I'm comfortable leaving them out as well.
 

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Easy for a Bonnies fan to kick out VCU and URI from the tourney! ;)

The good news is VCU has one more shot vs Dayton and URI still has home and away games vs Dayton, so there are a few opportunities for Q1 wins. Then if VCU can creep up above 30 in the NET (maybe with the aforementioned Q1 win vs Dayton), URI also picks up a Q1 win.
 

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See, I didn't go to the RPI site specifically because I wanted to see who I would pick. Disappointed, but given the 4 teams presented, on pure percentages alone team A and D had better Q1 numbers. One of our (A10) arguments has always been, well we only got 4 Q1 games and went 2-2, but you got 12 Q1 games and went 4-8, we are actually performing better. But in this case, we aren't.

Team C (URI apparently) was the only one of the 4 with a winning record in Q1/Q2 total. I'm guessing Brown was the slip-up, and thank goodness it was at Brown so it therefore won't become a Q4 loss. Everyone has a slip-up right? But when looking at it, the committee would say, of those 4, well Team C had a slip-up and the other 3 didn't.

I don't envy the job.
 

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The real missed opportunity was at West Virginia, we were within one at 82-81 with 35 seconds left and just couldn't make a stop then turned it over when trying for the game-tying three. That would have been a signature win and really taken the sting from the Brown loss. Fortunately home/road is determined by arena and not the crowd composition, because Rhody usually fills Brown's gym with 3/4 of the crowd. Not exactly a true "road" game, which makes that L all the more frustrating.
 

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See, I didn't go to the RPI site specifically because I wanted to see who I would pick. Disappointed, but given the 4 teams presented, on pure percentages alone team A and D had better Q1 numbers. One of our (A10) arguments has always been, well we only got 4 Q1 games and went 2-2, but you got 12 Q1 games and went 4-8, we are actually performing better. But in this case, we aren't.

Team C (URI apparently) was the only one of the 4 with a winning record in Q1/Q2 total. I'm guessing Brown was the slip-up, and thank goodness it was at Brown so it therefore won't become a Q4 loss. Everyone has a slip-up right? But when looking at it, the committee would say, of those 4, well Team C had a slip-up and the other 3 didn't.

I don't envy the job.
I think it would be easy for the Committee. Team A is Michigan and Team D is Florida.

I picked UM and UF because they have similar resumes on paper as VCU and URI. Arkansas at NET 35 is also similar, and I suspect that there are a lot more. I think we’ll hear more than the usual amount of subjective reasoning this year to justify some P5 at large bids.
 

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Resume of four teams with NET rankings between 34 and 41

Team A:
Record 13-9
Q1 4-8
Q2 3-1

Team B:
Record 16-6
Q1 1-4
Q2 2-2

Team C:
Record 17-5
Q1 1-3
Q2 5-1

Team D:
Record 13-8
Q1 3-4
Q2 2-4

Assuming the Committee is looking at the last two in, which two teams pass the “eye test” ?
So what about

Team E:
Record 16-5
Q1 1-3
Q2 1-2

Team F:
Record 16-6
Q1 2-4
Q2 1-1
 

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I think it would be easy for the Committee. Team A is Michigan and Team D is Florida.

I picked UM and UF because they have similar resumes on paper as VCU and URI. Arkansas at NET 35 is also similar, and I suspect that there are a lot more. I think we’ll hear more than the usual amount of subjective reasoning this year to justify some P5 at large bids.
OK, so justify picking B/C over A/D. Or even teams E/F from urmite's post. If Team C (URI) was 2-2 in those Q1 games, I'd have picked them because their Q1/2 record would be 7-3, only team of the 4 at .500 in Q1. Even with the one Q3 loss. But they're 1-3 Q1 which percentage-wise is not as good as 4-8 or 3-4.

I'm not saying I like the result I got, but I thought it was pretty close to objective.

So argue for B/C.
 
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