1. There's not enough data points because there's no raw data being displayed anywhere in any kind for NET, and that means it's not just one unknown formula, it's actually THREE.Two things seem apparent to me:
1 - I'm surprised that the math wizards who run some of the metric sites haven't reverse engineered the NET to show exactly how it is being calculated. Would think they have enough data points by now to do this.
2 - In theory, if you were using NET, the at-large bids would end at NET 48. Right now that puts 2 at-large bids for the A10, and 1 for the AAC, and 2 for the ACC(!).
There will be a lot of nonsense (different nonsense every year) when they pick someone in the 50's, and leave out someone in the 40's. Hello this year's Syracuse.
Take RPI as an example first: The RPI was published at the end of every season by the NCAA and it included raw data (aka, not 63rd in RPI, but RPI of .5655). Win percentage is obviously known. And you can figure out SOS by doing some work; and all Division I teams data is available. Opp SOS would be a lot more work but could be tabulated.
- If you had all four numbers, you can figure out the formula: RPI = (Win Pct + SOS + SOS + Opp SOS)/4
- If you don't have Opp SOS, you can figure it out from the other three numbers if you have the formula.
- If you're missing Opp SOS AND the formula, it would take two reports to figure it out, because you'd have two points for every team, and know the results between the two points, so how Win Pct, SOS got from Report A to Report B, so the formula would have to get Opp SOS and RPI from A to B, for every team exactly the same way. Easy to reverse engineer.
BUT WITH NET, we can get a raw number for four things: Net Efficiency, Win Pct, Adjusted Win Pct, Score margin.
That missing component is it's own formula we have ZERO data points for: The Team Value Index. We don't know the rankings within the TVI that awards "points" for beating 1 or losing to 353. We don't even know who is 1 and who is 353, or the algorith used to run it.
And we don't know the formula of how those first four very different numbers, and the TVI are adapted to make a similar looking set of numbers to combine with TVI for a final number.
By that, I mean Dayton:
Win Pct: .9130 (based on 0 to 1)
Adj Win Pct: .8990 (based on 0 to 1)
Net Efficiency: 0.226 (generally based on -0.5 to +0.5, but theoretically could be between -3 and +3).
MOV: 7.6957 (based on -10 to +10)
So you'd either need to convert Net Efficiency and MOV to something based on 0 to 1 like win pct; or I suppose you could simply use each team's ranking in the category.
Sorry to go full nerd on you, but it's a boring day at work.