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Discussion Starter #1
Hi everyone, hope all is well! I'm an Iowa fan and have no affiliation with Vermont or the America East - but I love college basketball. So I did what many people have done - simulate this year's tournament day by day as the games would have been played. I wish I could have shared this with you all as it was happening but I had no idea this would happen.

I have attached my bracket below...


It started with an upset of 4 seed Louisville, a team that was probably even seeded too low.
After that, Vermont made a hell of a run to get to the final four, beating 5 seed Ohio State, 1 seed Baylor, and 2 seed Creighton.
In the final four, they faced off against 10 seed Texas Tech, who made an improbable run of their own with Chris Beard at the helm. Despite being a 10 seed, Texas Tech was a heavy favorite but Vermont did it again. And indeed the 13 seed Vermont Catamounts, after a stunning series of upsets will be playing for the 2020 national championship against the 3 seed Duke Blue Devils. I'll let you know what happens tomorrow. :)

(I won't bore you with all the details but I've been using the same system to do these brackets with a random number generator for a decade and have never seen anything like this. Based on my system, Vermont had a 0.032% of reaching the national championship game.) This is truly the craziest run in the history of the NCAA tournament.
 

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Great stuf; knew Vermont was going on a deep tournament run thank you for confirming. Now you just need to use your simulator to find the value of R naught.
 

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Discussion Starter #5 (Edited)
In previous years, how close did your system do?
I always do one with this system with the actual bracket in March, so it can vary wildly compared to the actual tournament since it's a one off, I actually did get the champion right a couple times though. But I mostly use the system during the season, simulating brackets based on the current bracketology just for fun. I actually get frustrated sometimes because I think my system is too chaulky, but I when I compare it overall by how far certain seeds advance it seems fairly accurate. Things take a decent jump up in difficulty to win for a 13 seed compared to a 12 seed based on historical numbers, I've never had a 13+ seed even make the final four in my thousands of simulations.

(edit: when I look at this bracket it might literally be the most upset filled bracket I've ever simulated, which is awesome)
 

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Discussion Starter #8
Vermont held their own and were in the game until the end, but Duke comes away with a 76-70 victory to win the national championship. It was a close game based on the simulation, and Vermont had a chance, but Duke was able to pull away in the end to claim another national championship.

Not how I wanted it to end. :(
 

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Just like the Duke game a few years ago when Clancy Rugg got called for a foul (he got all ball) in the last seconds and Duke won by 1. I'm sure that Becker and Coach K both have vivid memories of that game which must have affected the outcome somehow.
 

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Love your outcomes but in another simulation we saw here, Vermont's 6-11 Daniel Giddens had 15 points and 15 boards against Louisville. And indeed, if you saw DG pull off his warmups and enter the game, you'd think he was a good bet for 15-15. In reality, 15 and 15 was a typical month's production for him. I'd be interested in knowing Giddens' stats in your games that led Vermont to the title game.
 

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How much in NCAA Tournament win share revenue did we earn with our simulated national runner-up finish? Hopefully enough to re-start Tarrant Center (?)
 
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