Professional and College Basketball Forums banner

1 - 20 of 29 Posts

·
Registered
Joined
·
3,252 Posts
Discussion Starter #1
ENJOY!



I should use this time to make a comprehensive schedule policy.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
5,728 Posts
I can see it now; modified soccer.
Top 8 play each other twice, bottom 6 once; 3 home, 3 away.
Reversed for bottom 6.
Reshuffle every year.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
1,442 Posts
I can see it now; modified soccer.
Top 8 play each other twice, bottom 6 once; 3 home, 3 away.
Reversed for bottom 6.
Reshuffle every year.
They're not going to do that because they want to preserve geographic rivalries, as well as trying to give the geographic outliers as much of a travel break as possible. You want VCU and Richmond to play twice, same with the Philly schools. Duquesne is an easy trip for both Bona, and Dayton, and Dayton is the only trip for SLU that is under 600 miles. They'll likely lock in 3 or 4 games for each team, and then rotate the rest. Pretty much every team will come to your town at least twice in a three year period. I can live with that.
You really have to feel for the low majors. How are they going to make their budgets with fewer buy games?
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
6,077 Posts
You really have to feel for the low majors. How are they going to make their budgets with fewer buy games?
Unfortunately, that’s the idea. Like so many other aspects of human life, the powerful are elbowing any possible competition off the table. It doesn’t matter that those schools earn a pittance in contrast to the P5. The latter wants more; it wants it all... and we’ll all be next if something isn’t done to regulate this bullshit.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
2,370 Posts
They're not going to do that because they want to preserve geographic rivalries, as well as trying to give the geographic outliers as much of a travel break as possible. You want VCU and Richmond to play twice, same with the Philly schools. Duquesne is an easy trip for both Bona, and Dayton, and Dayton is the only trip for SLU that is under 600 miles. They'll likely lock in 3 or 4 games for each team, and then rotate the rest. Pretty much every team will come to your town at least twice in a three year period. I can live with that.
You really have to feel for the low majors. How are they going to make their budgets with fewer buy games?
We shoudnt be worried about rivalries or travel distance. The league needs to provide the best teams each year the opportunity to maximize its Team Value Index. If that means that the top 7 teams play each other 3 times vs not playing the bottom 7 at all, I would be all in.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
5,728 Posts
Upon further thought, my math stunk.
Top 8 play round robin and bottom 6 once = 20 games.
Bottom 6 play round robin and top 8 once = 18 games.
Hmmmm.....
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
40 Posts
How would the league determine who the "best teams" are? In the 15 years I've followed the league everyone except for Fordham has had good times and bad. Going off of pre-season expectations can also be a fools errand.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
2,370 Posts
How would the league determine who the "best teams" are? In the 15 years I've followed the league everyone except for Fordham has had good times and bad. Going off of pre-season expectations can also be a fools errand.
It wouldn’t be difficult ... a rolling 4 year average of conference results or NET, or a weighted combination of different performance metrics over a number of years. There are more consistent performers than those with one good year
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
3,384 Posts
How would the league determine who the "best teams" are? In the 15 years I've followed the league everyone except for Fordham has had good times and bad. Going off of pre-season expectations can also be a fools errand.
Not that it’s anything to write home about, but Fordham finished tied for 4th in 2007. 6th in 2006. The glory years. LOL
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
3,252 Posts
Discussion Starter #11
It wouldn’t be difficult ... a rolling 4 year average of conference results or NET, or a weighted combination of different performance metrics over a number of years. There are more consistent performers than those with one good year
A four-year average is dumb, though. Because, for example, 2023 Dayton isn't going to have Obi Toppin.

To me, the way to go is "last year's A-10 Win Pct + Pct of scoring/minutes coming back (as of June 15)."
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
2,370 Posts
A four-year average is dumb, though. Because, for example, 2023 Dayton isn't going to have Obi Toppin.

To me, the way to go is "last year's A-10 Win Pct + Pct of scoring/minutes coming back (as of June 15)."
JP, I think it’s dumb that to assume that just because players go pro, graduate or transfer that there scoring wouldn’t be replaced, or the program isn’t going to be successful. UD isn’t going to replace Obi Toppin and we’re not going to be ranked number three in the country, but we’re still going to have the best team in the league despite what Paul believes.

UD’s last four years include two out right A10 one seeds, a third seed and one poor year. The last five years include three first seeds, a third seed and one bad year. The last six years include 3 number one seeds, a second, a third and one bad finish. Obi Toppin only played during two of these years.

Furthermore, you shouldn’t punish VCU for a bad year when they have been one of the best or perhaps even the best program in the conference over a period of time. If you use your formula and apply it to VCU they wouldn’t look too good.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
3,252 Posts
Discussion Starter #13
Oh, no doubt that there's a common sense component in this. I'm merely saying that it needs to be built on "What gets us the best chance to get more bids?" and not like "well, these guys are picked 1-2, but we're not going to have them play twice because our 4-year rolling average says that Preseason 2nd Place was .001 out of that group."
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
3,252 Posts
Discussion Starter #14
Plus, you know, having 100% of a garbage team back simply means you could consistently be garbage!
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
5,728 Posts
If none of our guys defect, we'll be ahead of the Flyers next year at the end of the year.

Hmm...that sounds a lot like "preseason champion" to me, now that I think about it.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
2,370 Posts
If none of our guys defect, we'll be ahead of the Flyers next year at the end of the year.

Hmm...that sounds a lot like "preseason champion" to me, now that I think about it.
Paul, the Flyers will win the A10 again next year. Remind me this time next year and I’ll apologize and admit that I’m wrong if it doesn’t happen.

But no friggin way UR moves ahead of The Flyer’s as preseason champions. That is our trophy.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
3,252 Posts
Discussion Starter #18
And that's why it needs to be more "In the moment" Here's 4-year rolling win totals:

UD 54 <-- losing POY, losing 4 of top 6
URI 50
BONA 48
VCU 47
DC 45 <-- loses 20% of offense off 10-8 team.

Rich 42 <-- everyone back from 14-4, NCAA bubble team
SLU 37

GMU 34
DUQ 31
LAS 30
GW 27
SJU 22
UMASS 21
FORD 16

We can argue over who's going win the A-10 next year, but if they divide into groups, Richmond being "sixth best" next year is just stupid.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
3,252 Posts
Discussion Starter #20
But honestly, this is cart before the horse type stuff... we can argue over "who should be in the top group to play each other twice" for days, but BEFORE we get there, you have to ask "Is everyone in the top half playing each other twice actually the SMART THING TO DO?!?

For example, if you we went back to the old "division schedule" -- H/A with division, H or A with other division. 19-game schedule with Top 7 and Bottom 7 as our "divisions."

Your 5-6-7 teams could be losing 6, 7 or 8 games to the top four teams in the league, splitting with each other, and teams going 8-12 in the A-10 aren't getting NCAA bids. Meanwhile the best team of the "Bottom 7 Division" is going 11-1 or 12-0 vs their division, and finishing ahead of your 6th/7th best teams.

You want to find the right blend where the Top 7 teams get NINE games against the other Top 7, not TWELVE. So the entire Top 7 Division is 11-9 at worst; and the leader of the "Botton 7 Division" is 11-9 at best.

Does that make sense?
 
1 - 20 of 29 Posts
Top