You can’t make arbitrary assumptions like you did with UD. We lose the POY off of the number 3 team in the country that ran away with conference season. We’re not going to do that next year.And that's why it needs to be more "In the moment" Here's 4-year rolling win totals:
UD 54 <-- losing POY, losing 4 of top 6
DC 45 <-- loses 20% of offense off 10-8 team.
Rich 42 <-- everyone back from 14-4, NCAA bubble team
We can argue over who's going win the A-10 next year, but if they divide into groups, Richmond being "sixth best" next year is just stupid.
However, I’d argue that Crutcher is the best player in the league and that we return 3 of the top six and 5 out of the top 8, plus add players coming off red shirt seasons and then you have to consider who Grant will add from the transfer pool - he has three more scholarships. That’s not even considering what the freshman may add. That’s why Dayton and VCU have had extended periods of success. It’s just not one class that may or may not be an at large team one year.
You’re also only looking a league wins. I know it makes SBU look better, but the rolling four or five year idea needs to include OOC, and maybe other things like tournament appearances and wins.