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A Closer Look at Rebounders...

733 Views 29 Replies 15 Participants Last post by  FanOfAll8472, 
L
There is a big gap between perception and reality when it comes to what is a good rebounding rate in the nba.

Basically, you have to look at the best rebounders within the same minutes played to get a good feel for relative strength and what a good rate for boards is.

Getting 8 rebounds in about 32mpg is very good. Guys in this grouping are:
Pachulia
Miller (39min)
Haslem
Ilgauskas
David West (7.5 in 35)
PJ Brown
Bogut (7 in 29)

The really top performers in this Minutes Played category are:

Dampier ( 8 in 24)
Chandler (9 in 27)
Gooden (9 in 28)
Magloire (10 in 31)


Going down to the 24-26mpg range you see that 6 is very good. Guys in this range are:

Pryzbilla (6.8 in 24)
Kwame ( 6 in 26)
Haywood (6 in 25)
Kristic (6 in 30) weak
CharlieV (6 in 28)
Frye (6 in 24)

The Best in limited minutes:

Nazr 5.3 in 17mpg
Diop 4.7 in 18mpg

Some others to look at to understand rates of boarding:

Zo 5.5 in 20
Foyle 5.4 in 23
LoWright 5 in 21
Songaila 4 in 21
Nesterovic 4 in 20
Etan Thomas 3.7 in 15
Gadzuric 2.9 in 12


Now let's compare those rates to some of our 'horrible' Raptor rebounders:

Hoffa 2.8 in 11.3 - consistent 3 in 12mpg player - equal to 6 in 24 which is the same as Pryz, Kwame, and Haywood. About the same as Gadzuric and Etan. Better than Songaila, Nesterovic.

Sow 2.3 in 11mpg - or about 5 in 22mpg - same sort of range as Hoff. Little less.

Woods 2.7 in 10mpg - about 5.4 in 20mpg and 8 in 30mpg - Woods is always our most prolific rebounder but gets no respect from Sam for some reason. He is a soft player defensively but does give more blocks than any other Raptor. In terms of sheer rebounding numbers Loren is better than almost anyone we could hope to sign.

None of our C's plays much, yet all 3 give decent rebounding based on the stats of other NBA players who are considered 'better' rebounders for some reason.

This all goes back to the issue of what the Raptors are really looking for from the C spot. I can't figure it out. We have 3 completely different body types here and none seem to fit.

Woods is the best rebounder, Hoffa the best low post defender, and Sow the best hustler and perimeter defender on picks. None are go-to scorers in the low post. Hoffa gives up the fewest opponent boards in my opinion, which is key.

So I don't see the Raps needing a 'rebounder' per se. What they need is a legit defender in the low post who can just rebound at the same rate as Hoff, Sow, and Woods. Rebounding itself is not the big problem. Its getting a big body that can play smart team D and not get backed down in the post one on one. He also can't be a liability on offense. Sam seems to set PT based on offense more than anything, despite what he says publicly.

All this just leads to the same conclusion as I had before. The best fits that are available would be Magloire, Pryz, and Nazr.

Other targets: Diop, Haywood, Kwame, Mihm, Dampier. Some possible, some not.
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P
you waisted a lot of time
heres a much much better analysis
http://www.nba.com/statistics/playe...d=Y&yearsExp=-1&sortOrder=7&splitDD=All Teams
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F
I thought it was a good analysis. Different spin on the standard per 48 minute stats everyone always regurgitates.

lucky777s said:
All this just leads to the same conclusion as I had before. The best fits that are available would be Magloire, Pryz, and Nazr.

Other targets: Diop, Haywood, Kwame, Mihm, Dampier. Some possible, some not.
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I have always supported going after the traditional centre mold until recently. I think the best argument against it is to look at the success of the players you mentioned; None of them have yet to contribute significantly to a contender.

At best they are roll players, but will be paid like stars because of the supply/demand ratio for traditional centre's.

I personally would like to look at a more athletic player in the 4/5 mould. As long as we can play adequate post defense, our front court can team rebound and play good help defense in the post.

We have a player like this in Bosh therfore we can take two approaches;

1) Go after another 4/5 to share that responsibility with Bosh and to a lesser extent villa. For this option my preference would be to look to the draft, Noah and Splitter could both fill this roll nicely.

2) Pick up a better rebounder at the 3/4 spot. This would bump villa to the 4 spot and bosh to the 5 To me Granger would be perfect for that roll, but that isn't an option anymore. Bargnani or even morrison could fill that roll in this draft. Any FA suggestions?

My preference would be option #1. I really like Both Noah and Splitter as prospects in that type of system. They are both atheltic Big guys who can get up and down, which is clearly Mitchell and BC's preference. We can then turn out attention to picking up a PG in FA or via trade.

The more I look at Mitchell's use of centre's and the way BC built his roster in phoenix, I think it is more likely that this will be the way they look to build the team.
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unluckyseventeen
As a Utah fan, I'm surprised you did not add Carlos Boozer into that equation.

In the last 9 games, where Boozer started the game in all of them, the Jazz have outrebounded their opponents in every game, and with a total margin of +77.. which breaks down to a little more than 8.5 per game more than their opponents.

Boozer averages 8.2 boards in 29 minutes per game.

But then again, this about who you guys can get, and the Jazz won't be trading Boozer, despite all of the regurgitated rumors from Jack Haley and the rest of the idiots running the papers these days.
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A
not sure exactly what my point is here, but in the games where loren woods has actually gotten 20 minutes:

21min, 3rb
20min, 4rb
18min, 1rb
27min, 4rb
20min, 3rb
21min, 5rb

2.92 rebounds in 20minutes, when he's actually given the minutes
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L
That's a good find Anson. And that's why I don't like per48 stats. Maybe that is what turns Sam off about Woods.

The numbers of Nazr and Diop in only 17mpg are pretty impressive. And Mags is impressive because there are just not that many 10rpg guys in the whole league.

I like to see someone in the 15+mpg range to get a better feel for their game. And they have to have played 60+ games as well. Unfortunately with Hoff we don't even get to see that. We've wasted 2 bad years that we could have given him huge PT.

I know Hoff's stats in games where he plays 18+ were quite good last year. Not sure about this year.

But would we really sign a Gadzuric that is putting up the same numbers in the same small minutes? He would be just as much a mystery as a starter.

I still think the Lakers may be ripe to make a move with either Kwame or Mihm because they now have Turiaf and Bynum that need PT and they can afford to part with one.
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A
I think what separates loren from those other guys, and what drives Sam nuts, is floating. He'll come on like gangbusters, then he'll disappear for like 4 or 5 plays. Did it last year too

here's hoffa's numbers from this year btw, when he plays 20

18min, 5rb
18min, 8rb
28min, 7rb
20min, 5rb
22min, 6rb
19min, 4rb
20min, 6rb
22min, 2rb
21min, 8rb
21min, 6rb
20min, 2rb

pretty decent for a 2nd year bigman with minimal experience. Couple of 2rb performances but overall not too shabby.
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A
I've read a lot of complaints about Gadzuric from bucks fans this year

questions about his size, and his defence against bigger players. I don't think he's our answer. At all.
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T
Yep, I'm definately not a fan of extrapolating per 48 minutes statistics, I've heard others use the argument, if player "x" had as many minutes as player "y" then they would have the same stats, but that is a stretch at best.

Gooden and Chandler seem like the most effiicent rebounders

with such limited options at the center spot, I think Magloire is the overwhelmeing best choice where Nazr might be a decent option this year.
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L
ansoncarter said:
here's hoffa's numbers from this year btw, when he plays 20

18min, 5rb
18min, 8rb
28min, 7rb
20min, 5rb
22min, 6rb
19min, 4rb
20min, 6rb
22min, 2rb
21min, 8rb
21min, 6rb
20min, 2rb

pretty decent for a 2nd year bigman with minimal experience. Couple of 2rb performances but overall not too shabby.
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Alright. Lets do the math.

Works out to 5.4 reb in 20.8 min on average for those games he gets decent minutes. That's almost exactly on pace for his career rebounding rate, and puts him into the same category as Zo, Kwame, Haywood, Pryz, and Diop for the 18-25mpg range players. These games and those from last year seem to suggest that Hoff's rebound rate is very consistent and more minutes brings more boards. Unlike Woods.

I don't know what more fans could expect from Hoff. He is producing decent rebound numbers for his minutes. His D is a bit better than most of our C's. ATrain was pushing around all our other C's tonight. Not Hoff. His only real trouble is on O, but nobody passes him the ball anyway.

He'll never be a star, but if all the Raps supposedly need is rebounding and D he could still develop into that player. He would already be farther ahead if we just played him more last year.
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T
I know the list is only based on stats, but how does Reggie Evans not get included in a thread about rebounders who we could possibly pick up?
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L
I was trying to keep it focused on C's. Stay away from PF's.

I don't think Evans solves our problem of being weak defensively in the paint. Guys will just shoot over him. He needs to play next to a C. He had Jerome James in Seattle last year.

Raps need a defensive stopper inside. As the stats show we already have guys that can rebound. Hoff's rate is very good by nba standards. Sam doesn't play him.

Donyell Marshall was a very good rebounder for us, but overall a horrible defender. That didnt' work well at all with him and Bosh together. We were abused constantly.

Our problems are much more than just rebounds. We need a legit C to protect the paint.
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J
IMO Lucky's Analysis is flawed.

First off, the top team in the league gets 43 rebounds, the worst teams gets 38 rebounds. Every team is going to have players who put up solid rebounding numbers. When the difference between top team and bottom team is 10%, then yes every team will have comparable guys on a per minute basis.

The real important measure is TEAM rebound differential... THIS IS HOW YOU CAN "USUALLY"TELL IF YOUR BIG MEN ARE GOOD REBOUNDERS.

Toronto is solidly 26th in the league at -2.74 rebounds a game. Solidly Crappy. And if you say -2.74 is small, well...

Consider:
- 2.74 rebounds is like 2.74 possessions, or basically 2.74 points. There may be other factors involved but let's say its costing us 2 points a game/
- Run any win expectation theory formula based on points and reduce TO's point differential by 2 pts. The impact is huge - it would mean at least 5 extra W's.

So people put up numbers. Big deal. Basketball is a game where there alot of sheer numbers, and the gross magnitude of the final outputs (score, rebounds) is always within 10% from top team to worse team. People on all teams, good or bad will always put up numbers, because there are alot of numbers to be gotten.

But ultimtaely you have to look at the small differences carefully, because the end score in basketball is always close, despite the sheer magnitude of the individual counting statistics that are available.

The -2.74 rebound differential is all that is relevant in this discussion. It indicates that we are a bad rebounding team, and its impact is huge.

Now is it the C's to blame... I don't know. This is where a good basketball mind (not myself, but hopefully BC) can analyze where the source of the problem is.
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JuniorNoboa said:
IMO Lucky's Analysis is flawed.

First off, the top team in the league gets 43 rebounds, the worst teams gets 38 rebounds. Every team is going to have players who put up solid rebounding numbers. When the difference between top team and bottom team is 10%, then yes every team will have comparable guys on a per minute basis.

The real important measure is TEAM rebound differential... THIS IS HOW YOU CAN "USUALLY"TELL IF YOUR BIG MEN ARE GOOD REBOUNDERS.

Toronto is solidly 26th in the league at -2.74 rebounds a game. Solidly Crappy. And if you say -2.74 is small, well...

Consider:
- 2.74 rebounds is like 2.74 possessions, or basically 2.74 points. There may be other factors involved but let's say its costing us 2 points a game/
- Run any win expectation theory formula based on points and reduce TO's point differential by 2 pts. The impact is huge - it would mean at least 5 extra W's.

So people put up numbers. Big deal. Basketball is a game where there alot of sheer numbers, and the gross magnitude of the final outputs (score, rebounds) is always within 10% from top team to worse team. People on all teams, good or bad will always put up numbers, because there are alot of numbers to be gotten.

But ultimtaely you have to look at the small differences carefully, because the end score in basketball is always close, despite the sheer magnitude of the individual counting statistics that are available.

The -2.74 rebound differential is all that is relevant in this discussion. It indicates that we are a bad rebounding team, and its impact is huge.

Now is it the C's to blame... I don't know. This is where a good basketball mind (not myself, but hopefully BC) can analyze where the source of the problem is.
Click to expand...

I agree 100%. I think our C's are part of the problem because there is really no one to count on. First it was Woods, then Hoffa, now Pape. Woods is soft and to be gone anyway, Hoffa can gobble up easy boards that fall in his lap. I rarely see him rip one down, or make a great tip to himself or teammate. Of all the things these guys, plus Bonner who has spent time there, none of their best characteristics is natural rebounding ability. I would like to see someone who can play 25+ mins at the 5 who I think of as a rebounder. That should not be the end of it, but it should be the start.

With Joey getting more and more time, I think our overall rebounding will get better from other his position and I have always liked Mo's hustle over the past 2+ years.
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Oh my god. Are you saying my 10 minutes of looking at rebounding stats and jotting down names is not the perfect method of finding the best rebounding C? Shocking.

Obviously there are way too many factors that go into a rebounding stat for any one player. It would take months to figure out a way of calculating a number that most truly reflected an individuals impact on rebounding in a team game like bball. And even that best calculation would be flawed.

Team defence, opposition fg%, team rebounds that don't get allocated to a player, 'easy' vs 'tough' rebounds, bench vs starting player (who you match up against), competition from dominant rebounder on your own team, etc, etc.

If you are a big on a team that limits guard penetration or where the guards rotate and box out well you get to operate in more space and key on your own man more. If you give up a low opp. fg% there will be more easy D rebounds to scoop up. If you play super uptempo ball you will get easier O rebounds without being boxed out. Same if you have guards that penetrate the D easily and cause rotations - easier O rebounds.

Way too difficult to take everything into account. But to say our bigs can't rebound when they have never been given the opportunity to play legit minutes is a big assumption. The numbers show Hoff gets his share of boards for the minutes he plays. The games where he gets more minutes he produces at the same pace. What more can he do? Play him and prove that he can't do the job. At 10 mpg he isn't a factor either way in our record or stats.

We look so closely at the Toronto players that we forget that players on other teams get the same 'easy' boards as Hoff. Being in the right position creates 'easy' boards. Watch BenWallace or KG closely and ask yourself how many of their boards were special and how many were ordinary.

We praise Charlie for O boards where he swoops in unguarded for an easy dunk, or when he grabs his own missed shot 2 or 3 times in one possession. Isn't that padding his stats? Those are easy chippees he is missing inside. Just like Donny used to do.

Bosh can go up high and steal a rebound late in the game with his athleticism and length. If Hoff is going to get that board it will not look special because he will have to do it by getting and holding position. Is that really less of a rebound? I don't think so. Just a different style from a different type of player.

Has anyone noticed how many rebounds Sow gets that are on the ground? Those seem to count. He can't get the high ones either because he doesn't have the length.
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lucky777s said:
We look so closely at the Toronto players that we forget that players on other teams get the same 'easy' boards as Hoff. Being in the right position creates 'easy' boards. Watch BenWallace or KG closely and ask yourself how many of their boards were special and how many were ordinary.

We praise Charlie for O boards where he swoops in unguarded for an easy dunk, or when he grabs his own missed shot 2 or 3 times in one possession. Isn't that padding his stats? Those are easy chippees he is missing inside. Just like Donny used to do.

Bosh can go up high and steal a rebound late in the game with his athleticism and length. If Hoff is going to get that board it will not look special because he will have to do it by getting and holding position. Is that really less of a rebound? I don't think so. Just a different style from a different type of player.
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I don't count being alone under the basket as being properly postioned for a rebound. Knowledge of positioning is not really being tested there. Where it is tested is when one has to get position in contest leaning with someone else. Knowing where to be when a certain shot is going up.

Everyone gets their share of easy rebounds based purely on the bounce. The best rebounders get their easy ones too, but what separates them is the nose for the ball off the rim and the desire and ability to fight and tip for contested balls. I rarely see Hoffa having that nose or fighting hard for it. He gets them from time to time, but lets face it, if he were a great rebounder at this point, if we had ANY even decent rebounder of any size for the 5, he would be out there for 25+ mins a game.

I am not giving up on Hoffa, but he not a natural rebounder.
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Obviously I have to agree that Hoffa doesn't have that natural 'game sense' or 'nose for the ball' or whatever you want to call it. Only the great players do.

Quite honestly Hoffa almost always chooses the wrong side of the basket when going to the O boards. He always goes to the short side (shot from the right corner, he goes to the right block) when I believe the stats say most rebounds will go long (left block).

I don't think Pryz or Mags or Curry or lots of other players we would take in a heartbeat have these things either. They just have better physical gifts.

Hoff does have desire though, which 90% of bigs seem to lack. He wants to get better. And in fact he is getting better. Just these last few games you can see him totally change the way he handles 'showing' on the pick and roll. Much, much better.

I disagree with you harping on the so-called 'easy' boards. As you admit every player gets them. So when we compare hoffa's stats at 11mpg to guys like Gadz and Etan with similar minutes that means something. And his stats when he plays 18+mpg mean something too when compared to other guys getting the same real minutes. These are not projections, they are real performance.

Sam doesn't trust Hoff, or doesn't like how he fits (doesn't fit) into our offense. I think Sam has resigned himself to the fact that the Raps have to score 100+ points to have a chance to win a ballgame, so he is just going with the best offensive units he has.

Hoffa IS a decent rebounder with size at the 5, and yet he still isn't playing 20mpg. Its' not because we have better options. Why play Bonner at the 5 so much? Answer: Sam trusts Matt more, and knows how to use Matt in the set offense. Matt doesn't get in the way of Bosh or Charlie down low. I think that's the key. Keep the lane clear for Bosh to drive.

When people say Hoff plays more minutes when he plays well I say BS. I watch him closely on the floor and he usually plays the exact same way each game. He's actually remarkably consistent. Some of his better all around games Sam cut his minutes right out in the second half. Sam never rewarded Hoff for good performances.

Sam also didn't like Omar Cook, and I say that was a dumb move as well. The guy isn't a genius.

Also, consider this:

Career Minutes

Hoffa: 1205 spread out over 2 years and only 100 games
Charlie: 1985 in only 70ish games (almost 65% more total minutes)

Any wonder Charlie has been able to show much more progress. Yes, it is also about talent, but its also about PT needed to make a major league adjustment to the nba game and athletes. Charlie is going to French immersion school and Hoff is taking a 1 hour course twice a week. Big difference.
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By the way,

Even Joey Graham, who most people would say has been in Sam's doghouse all year and not gotten major minutes, has played a total of 1293 career minutes. That shows how badly Sam has buried Hoff on the bench.
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B
We are pretty well in agreement. Hof has shown good spurts and NOT been rewarded which is a piss off. When I talk about his ability to fight for boards, I am positive he has it in him, but his positioning keeps him away from being there to fight for it. Having the shorter arms and less than springy hops also takes away. If he can, through experience learn to position himself better and leverage his size w/o fouling, he can be a good rebounder.

I would like to see him get some decent PT down the stretch this year. Joey has gotten noticably better. The organisation needs to give him a chance to prove he does not belong. Play him while the games dont really matter. Next year with our sites on a playoff spot, these games won't be there for him.
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blowuptheraptors said:
I would like to see him get some decent PT down the stretch this year. Joey has gotten noticably better. The organisation needs to give him a chance to prove he does not belong. Play him while the games dont really matter. Next year with our sites on a playoff spot, these games won't be there for him.
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Man, there's few things I enjoy more then making fun of Hoffa, there's just so much to work with and I am by no means a fan, but I'm in total agreement with you on this one.

He really impressed me last night and against the Heat. I hope he gets another chance this time.
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