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The People's Champ
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ok with no NET, and if we do not like RPI, maybe BPI? BPI has UVM and SBU still miles away, 51 to 155.. UA not fair behind at 192.
 

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I'll ask this question if people think it's close, are other AE team's best wins as good as UVM's third-best win? UVM has played such a far more difficult schedule than any other AE team thus far it's almost too difficult to even compare. Lamb is also still a wide margin better than whoever people think is the next best player in the conference (Lutete/Sessoms/Healy/Olaniyi/Fleming), and that makes a pretty big difference in a conference like this.

Our shooting has been not great, but we've also been dealing with a significant loss in Shungu and now Giddens. Shungu played 2 games and both were road wins over Bucknell (effectively the UVM of the PL) and St. Bonaventure (A10 team). Can try and answer the question if we've taken a "step back" when all our starters are healthy, until then it's tough to say.
 

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I watched Bing play Colgate last night and they played a much more organized game than I remember from last year. Dempsey may be delegating more coaching to his assistants. There was better ball movement and set plays. Mills, Tinsley and Sarr all had good games and picked up the slack for Sessoms being guarded very closely. If they keep improving their team game I think they have a good chance of overtaking UNH and UML.
 

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Technically, although you can quibble neutral court versus home versus road, KenPom likes NDSU, Sacred Heart, and American more than Bucknell. AE's wins by KenPom:

100. @ St. John's (UVM)
144. @ St. Bonaventure (UVM)
188. N-North Dakota State (SB)
206. N-Sacred Heart (Albany)
206. Sacred Heart (Bing)
208. American (Albany)
212. @ Bucknell (UVM)
221. Brown (UML)
222. @ NJIT (Bing)
227. Boston University (UVM)
229. Canisius (Albany)
251. Drexel (UMBC)
257. Army (Bing)
263. Manhattan (SB)
266. @ Long Island (UML)
268. Bryant (UNH)
274. N-UT Rio Grande (SB)
286. Merrimack (Maine)
310. @ Texas A&M-CC (SB)
313. @ Florida Gulf Coast (UMBC)
324. N-Presbyterian (Albany)
325. Holy Cross (UNH)
329. @ Wagner (SB)
338. @ Marist (Hart)
350. @ Central Connecticut (Hart)
350. @ Central Connecticut (UNH)
350. N-Central Connecticut (UVM)
350. Central Connecticut (UML)
D3. Gallaudet (UVM)
D3. Farmingdale State (SB)
D3. Valley Forge (UMBC)
D3. St. Mary's (UMBC)
D3. Georgian Court (UMBC)
D3. UMass Boston (UML)
D3. Gordon (Hart)
D3. Emerson (Hart)
D3. Curry (UNH)
D3. Maine Maritime (UNH)
D3. Maine Maritime (Maine)
D3. SUNY Potsdam (Albany)
D3. Oneonta (Bing)
 

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Wild guesses, Vermont looks like to me, currently a 12-4, 13-3 type team in this year’s league.

SBU looks like a 11-5 to 12-4 type team to me.

UA and UMBC could accumulate 10 league wins or more, certainly should be in the hunt.

Bing and UNH could surprise and Hartford still has some pieces to be dangerous.

UML and Maine still have enough to upset any other league team that has an off night.

In short, unless Shungu comes back soon and that somehow translates to a very different product than what we currently have in Vermont, I see a much tighter race and potentially open league.
 

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We’ve lost 3 total AE games during the regular season over last 3 years. Common denominator there is obviously Becker & Lamb. Going undefeated always seems crazy until of course it did happen that one time, but losing 4 games during conference play seems equally highly unlikely. Would have to be the result of something unforeseen/material like an injury or departure or the conference merging with the A10 in January, something like that.
 

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Technically, although you can quibble neutral court versus home versus road, KenPom likes NDSU, Sacred Heart, and American more than Bucknell. AE's wins by KenPom:

100. @ St. John's (UVM)
144. @ St. Bonaventure (UVM)
188. N-North Dakota State (SB)
206. N-Sacred Heart (Albany)
206. Sacred Heart (Bing)
208. American (Albany)
212. @ Bucknell (UVM)
221. Brown (UML)
222. @ NJIT (Bing)
227. Boston University (UVM)
229. Canisius (Albany)
251. Drexel (UMBC)
257. Army (Bing)
263. Manhattan (SB)
266. @ Long Island (UML)
268. Bryant (UNH)
274. N-UT Rio Grande (SB)
286. Merrimack (Maine)
310. @ Texas A&M-CC (SB)
313. @ Florida Gulf Coast (UMBC)
324. N-Presbyterian (Albany)
325. Holy Cross (UNH)
329. @ Wagner (SB)
338. @ Marist (Hart)
350. @ Central Connecticut (Hart)
350. @ Central Connecticut (UNH)
350. N-Central Connecticut (UVM)
350. Central Connecticut (UML)
D3. Gallaudet (UVM)
D3. Farmingdale State (SB)
D3. Valley Forge (UMBC)
D3. St. Mary's (UMBC)
D3. Georgian Court (UMBC)
D3. UMass Boston (UML)
D3. Gordon (Hart)
D3. Emerson (Hart)
D3. Curry (UNH)
D3. Maine Maritime (UNH)
D3. Maine Maritime (Maine)
D3. SUNY Potsdam (Albany)
D3. Oneonta (Bing)
Thanks- so per these rankings, effectively, Stony Brook's best win over N. Dakota State is marginally better than UVM's third best win over Bucknell. That's fair.

I do not live within a computer realm instead physically here on earth like you all, so beating Sacred Heart is not better than beating Bucknell. Sorry, rankings.
 

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Wild guesses, Vermont looks like to me, currently a 12-4, 13-3 type team in this year’s league.

SBU looks like a 11-5 to 12-4 type team to me.

UA and UMBC could accumulate 10 league wins or more, certainly should be in the hunt.

Bing and UNH could surprise and Hartford still has some pieces to be dangerous.

UML and Maine still have enough to upset any other league team that has an off night.

In short, unless Shungu comes back soon and that somehow translates to a very different product than what we currently have in Vermont, I see a much tighter race and potentially open league.
There is zero chance UVM loses 4 conference games, 1 or 2...possible.
 

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The preseason poll ranked the teams like this...

1. Vermont
2. UMBC
3. Stony Brook
4. Albany
5. Lowell
T6. Binghamton
T6. Hartford
8. Maine
9. New Hampshire

Based on where they were predicted to finish, I think the teams kinda look like this...

A little better than expected: SBU, Binghamton, UNH
About right: UVM, UMBC, Albany, Hartford, Maine
Slightly worse than expected: Lowell

Did not expect Bing and UNH to each have 3 D-1 wins at this point (1 or 2 tops). Conversely, expected a few more out of UML based on that schedule (that 0-3 home tournament was brutal).
 

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Thanks- so per these rankings, effectively, Stony Brook's best win over N. Dakota State is marginally better than UVM's third best win over Bucknell. That's fair.

I do not live within a computer realm instead physically here on earth like you all, so beating Sacred Heart is not better than beating Bucknell. Sorry, rankings.
In the long run, probably. But Bucknell is 3-7 with a good win over Hofstra and some iffy losses like Canisius and Princeton- Princeton's only win.
 

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8. Binghamton - Can't score, can't defend. They need a change ASAP. Sessoms can't win games all by himself
Curious... how many times have you seen Binghamton this year? Defense is a problem, yes, but they can score and, thankfully, Sessoms hasn't had to win games by himself. Tinsley and Mills are legitimate players (not just freshmen putting up numbers because they have the opportunity on a bad team--though that obviously helps!). Tinsley is tough as nails, as gritty a hardworking player as I can recall, or at least since Sebastian Hermenier. I've been a huge detractor of Dempsey's, but maybe, just maybe, he's finally a found a core group to turn this ship around.

The KenPom rankings don’t seem to like Binghamton much, basically putting them right where they’ve been in the rest of Dempsey’s tenure (300+). This seems odd to me since they’ve won four games against teams that aren’t pushovers and were tied with Colgate late in the game. When you break down their schedule, it's clear they are trending in the right direction and getting better with each passing game. I just don't see a team that is of bottom-of-the-barrel D1 quality when I watch them play, regardless of what KenPom says.

The loss to Michigan State is about as meaningless as the win over Oneonta is. In the other eight games, they've been .500 against peer teams that are respectable-enough programs. Wins over NJIT, Army, Sacred Heart and Boston U. (despite Sarr and Willis fouling out), close loss to Colgate (a team that would most likely be the clear-cut #2 in the AE), losses to Loyola MD and Columbia (Sarr missed this game due to injury) and blown out by Cornell in the season opener, a point worth mentioning given the fact it was the first D1 game for Tinsley, Mills, Hjalmarsson, Willis and Petcash (combined for 119 minutes that night).

I don't know. Maybe that seems like excuse making. To me, they are a super young team (7th youngest or least experienced, can't remember which exactly, in the country) that is actually exciting to watch and improving at a steady pace. All of the youngsters have shown an ability to be contributors. Some, like Willis and Petcash, are likely to only be role players as a traditional big man and three-point specialist, respectively. Tinsley and Mills, however, are the real deal and give Sessoms some weapons to go to war with.

I haven't seen UNH, Maine, Hartford or Lowell this year, but having watched this conference closely for nearly two decades, and believing I have a decent idea of what a competent AE team does or does not look like, I would be surprised if any of them are teams that are clearly superior to this Binghamton squad (that's not to say Binghamton is clearly superior to any of them either). Based off the results of the other programs like Albany and UMBC, I'm not sure Binghamton isn't capable of sneaking a win or two in those games too. I suspect Vermont blows Bing out by 20 or more and a split in the season series with Stony Brook would be an unlikely "big" win for the team.

We shall see. I'm just happy to have my low expectations surpassed for once. Probably looking at things a bit too rosily.
 

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Discussion Starter #39
Curious... how many times have you seen Binghamton this year? Defense is a problem, yes, but they can score and, thankfully, Sessoms hasn't had to win games by himself. Tinsley and Mills are legitimate players (not just freshmen putting up numbers because they have the opportunity on a bad team--though that obviously helps!). Tinsley is tough as nails, as gritty a hardworking player as I can recall, or at least since Sebastian Hermenier. I've been a huge detractor of Dempsey's, but maybe, just maybe, he's finally a found a core group to turn this ship around.

The KenPom rankings don’t seem to like Binghamton much, basically putting them right where they’ve been in the rest of Dempsey’s tenure (300+). This seems odd to me since they’ve won four games against teams that aren’t pushovers and were tied with Colgate late in the game. When you break down their schedule, it's clear they are trending in the right direction and getting better with each passing game. I just don't see a team that is of bottom-of-the-barrel D1 quality when I watch them play, regardless of what KenPom says.

The loss to Michigan State is about as meaningless as the win over Oneonta is. In the other eight games, they've been .500 against peer teams that are respectable-enough programs. Wins over NJIT, Army, Sacred Heart and Boston U. (despite Sarr and Willis fouling out), close loss to Colgate (a team that would most likely be the clear-cut #2 in the AE), losses to Loyola MD and Columbia (Sarr missed this game due to injury) and blown out by Cornell in the season opener, a point worth mentioning given the fact it was the first D1 game for Tinsley, Mills, Hjalmarsson, Willis and Petcash (combined for 119 minutes that night).

I don't know. Maybe that seems like excuse making. To me, they are a super young team (7th youngest or least experienced, can't remember which exactly, in the country) that is actually exciting to watch and improving at a steady pace. All of the youngsters have shown an ability to be contributors. Some, like Willis and Petcash, are likely to only be role players as a traditional big man and three-point specialist, respectively. Tinsley and Mills, however, are the real deal and give Sessoms some weapons to go to war with.

I haven't seen UNH, Maine, Hartford or Lowell this year, but having watched this conference closely for nearly two decades, and believing I have a decent idea of what a competent AE team does or does not look like, I would be surprised if any of them are teams that are clearly superior to this Binghamton squad (that's not to say Binghamton is clearly superior to any of them either). Based off the results of the other programs like Albany and UMBC, I'm not sure Binghamton isn't capable of sneaking a win or two in those games too. I suspect Vermont blows Bing out by 20 or more and a split in the season series with Stony Brook would be an unlikely "big" win for the team.

We shall see. I'm just happy to have my low expectations surpassed for once. Probably looking at things a bit too rosily.
My rankings of them were based on the metics that were available at the time. There are some nice pieces to build from (I picked up Mills in the AE Fantasy league) but they are currently ranked 348th in defensive effeciency based on the barttorvick rankings. They are 5th in the league in offensive efficiency though, so they have improved there since I started the thread.

 

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I think there is a lot of shock at how quickly UVM has come back to the pack. There are some deep flaws with them right now. Having said that, after one month it's clear that Stony Brook is now the clear favorite with everyone else sliding down a spot. One neat thing about OOC, right now the AE has a winning record in ooc games. It would be awesome if that held up.
are you saying SB will win the conf. and go on to the ncaa's--I think you only want to be quoted on the board, as you have to know more about the game than that !
 
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