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I think lots of times, we tend to assume the best team is going to win 75-95% of the time, and an occasional upset happens but it's rare.

The reality is, there's ALL KINDS of thousands of factors we're totally unaware of. Players banged up but not injured, players who didn't sleep well the night before. Sometimes you just have multiple players with off nights at the same time. Every team will have "A flu game" where it seems the whole team has the flu.

It's always funny to me when ESPN does their BPI/Pct Chance to Win stats, because it's ridiculous. When you look at your team's schedule and go "Beat Georgia, Lose to Michigan St, Beat Va Tech, Beat Colorado...." You're always going to end up over-estimating the number of 50/50 games you win, and you're going to assume you beat all 15 easily beatable opponents. Realistically, pick 50% of your 50-50 games, and include TWO games where you just shit the bed against someone you should beat.
I guess if you consider this a 50/50 game, but this year’s Dayton is better than this year’s La. Salle team by a wide margin. If the Flyer’s lose this game, it’s not as simple of “over estimating” UD.
 

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I fully acknowledge that URI and Brown have played a million times since the game of basketball was invented, its a local rivalry, all that. So my normal "why is this A10 team playing that non-con team on the road" has to be tempered with these facts.

That said, do Ram fans feel like the Brown series is a benefit to the program and it should continue to be played? I have no idea, just asking. Does it have so much sentimental value that even results like that dont get some to re-consider the series? If Brown were located in Boston or Philly, would URI even give Brown the time of day? Barring some extenuating circumstances (and this might be one of those), no A10 team should ever play an Ivy League team on the road except if Fordham is playing Columbia.

Tough to win on the road. But gotta think Ram fans thought this one was in the bag. I did too.
 

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I guess if you consider this a 50/50 game, but this year’s Dayton is better than this year’s La. Salle team by a wide margin. If the Flyer’s lose this game, it’s not as simple of “over estimating” UD.
Oh, I wasn't calling this a 50-50 game. I'm merely saying that in general about any projection of results. Short version is: Shit happens, you're going to just take a giant dump on the floor once or twice per season, no matter who you are.

Just look at the regular season champs each year:
2019: VCU lost to URI (RPI 117). Twice, once in the A-10 Quarters.
2018: URI lost to St. Joe's (RPI 184)
2017: Dayton lost to UMass (who finished 15-18)
2016: Dayton lost to LaSalle (who finished 9-22)
2015: Davidson lost to St. Joe's (who finished 13-19)
2014: Saint Louis lost to Duquesne (who finished 13-17)
2013: Saint Louis lost to URI (who finished 8-21)
2012: Temple lost to Richmond (16-16, 126 RPI)
2011: Xavier lost to Charlote (10-20, 225 RPI)
2010: Temple didn't screw up.
2009: Xavier lost to Charlotte (11-20, 209 RPI)
 

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I fully acknowledge that URI and Brown have played a million times since the game of basketball was invented, its a local rivalry, all that. So my normal "why is this A10 team playing that non-con team on the road" has to be tempered with these facts.

That said, do Ram fans feel like the Brown series is a benefit to the program and it should continue to be played? I have no idea, just asking. Does it have so much sentimental value that even results like that dont get some to re-consider the series? If Brown were located in Boston or Philly, would URI even give Brown the time of day? Barring some extenuating circumstances (and this might be one of those), no A10 team should ever play an Ivy League team on the road except if Fordham is playing Columbia.

Tough to win on the road. But gotta think Ram fans thought this one was in the bag. I did too.
I'm starting to feel the same way about the Bonnies vs Niagara, Canisius, Siena and Buffalo. We haven't swept those guys since 2011-12. That's 24-12 in the last nine years.

All the teams that left the A-10 over the years -- Penn State, Pitt, Rutgers, Temple, Nova, Va Tech, West Virginia, Xavier, Butler -- how many times have they come back to play road games at our places?

We're ALWAYS getting big timed by BCS programs, why are we not Big Timing programs below us? (Because otherwise no one will play us, I'm guessing).
 

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Combine Rhody not taking Brown seriously (notably Martin and Dowtin alternated between sleepwalking and missing easy 8-footers) with Brown shooting 13-28 from 3-point range. This dude Hunsaker (Proxy?) was shooting 24% from distance on the year and decided to bury 6 of 8 threes last night. URI just took a big shit on the court. This is a team that lost to Navy at home by 20 for chrissakes.
 

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JP, I honk it’s more of a budget issue than “no one will play us”. Those regional H&H series aren’t buy games and are easy road trips.
We got a H&H with Pitt back in the 90's. They bought us out. In the 90's! No way we get a P5 within 4 hours to visit RC. It's either Pitt or SU. It absolutely is "no one will play us". The only possible P5's I see within a reasonable trip to even play us in Buffalo would be tOSU, Pitt, WV, PSU, SU - and it's a stretch to call them "regional". The guys on the phones trying to schedule can tell you point blank they won't return us, even in Buffalo, and it's once in a blue moon they'll buy or agree to a 1yr deal.
 

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I fully acknowledge that URI and Brown have played a million times since the game of basketball was invented, its a local rivalry, all that. So my normal "why is this A10 team playing that non-con team on the road" has to be tempered with these facts.

That said, do Ram fans feel like the Brown series is a benefit to the program and it should continue to be played? I have no idea, just asking. Does it have so much sentimental value that even results like that dont get some to re-consider the series? If Brown were located in Boston or Philly, would URI even give Brown the time of day? Barring some extenuating circumstances (and this might be one of those), no A10 team should ever play an Ivy League team on the road except if Fordham is playing Columbia.

Tough to win on the road. But gotta think Ram fans thought this one was in the bag. I did too.
The problem is URI struggles mightily to fill up their schedule every year as is. Several times in the past decade we've needed to add a Division II team to the home slate at the last minute. And frankly the Brown arena is filled 75-80% with URI fans anyway, so it is essentially another home game and a good way to connect with alumni 30 miles away in Providence.

Providence College backed out of their home and home arrangement with Brown around 10 or so years ago, and now don't even play them every year. When they do it is at the Dunk downtown.

With the way Bryant has developed their basketball program in a short time, I am thinking they will be the better option than Brown for a second in-state home and home series besides PC in the near future.
 

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We got a H&H with Pitt back in the 90's. They bought us out. In the 90's! No way we get a P5 within 4 hours to visit RC. It's either Pitt or SU. It absolutely is "no one will play us". The only possible P5's I see within a reasonable trip to even play us in Buffalo would be tOSU, Pitt, WV, PSU, SU - and it's a stretch to call them "regional". The guys on the phones trying to schedule can tell you point blank they won't return us, even in Buffalo, and it's once in a blue moon they'll buy or agree to a 1yr deal.
I’m not talking about P5 games. The home games in these regional H&H’s series aren’t buy games. I’m neutral on the A10 / MWC deal, but I see the value of the deal to the conference. Are the guys on the phones looking for series with Missouri Valley type of programs? I bet not.

UD found, or stumbled upon a solution to the NET bias against non P5 programs. We’re fortunate to have a huge fan base that travels so we’re able to schedule good neutral site match ups and are in the bigger holiday tournaments. I’m not suggesting that the A10 try to copy this, but I doubt that the guys on the phone are looking for better matchups to replace the Browns and Niagras.
 

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Discussion Starter #38
With the win over Fordham last night VCU is 90-33 in conference play since joining the league in 2012-13.
 

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I’m not talking about P5 games. The home games in these regional H&H’s series aren’t buy games. I’m neutral on the A10 / MWC deal, but I see the value of the deal to the conference. Are the guys on the phones looking for series with Missouri Valley type of programs? I bet not.

UD found, or stumbled upon a solution to the NET bias against non P5 programs. We’re fortunate to have a huge fan base that travels so we’re able to schedule good neutral site match ups and are in the bigger holiday tournaments. I’m not suggesting that the A10 try to copy this, but I doubt that the guys on the phone are looking for better matchups to replace the Browns and Niagras.
You're correct. They're not on the phone looking for better matchups to replace the "Browns and Niagras (sic)". They're on the phones trying to fill out the remainder of their schedules. A few years ago the Bona scheduler, in response to complaints from certain fans, answered a number of their questions. He noted that they had contacted well in excess of 300 D1 schools. You can bet that most of the MVC schools were on that list. How many schools they actually negotiated with I do not know as he pointed out that many simply never responded to his initial and any subsequent contacts. When we get to the point of not having to schedule Gannon and the like, we can worry about how to replace Canisius.
 

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You're correct. They're not on the phone looking for better matchups to replace the "Browns and Niagras (sic)". They're on the phones trying to fill out the remainder of their schedules. A few years ago the Bona scheduler, in response to complaints from certain fans, answered a number of their questions. He noted that they had contacted well in excess of 300 D1 schools. You can bet that most of the MVC schools were on that list. How many schools they actually negotiated with I do not know as he pointed out that many simply never responded to his initial and any subsequent contacts. When we get to the point of not having to schedule Gannon and the like, we can worry about how to replace Canisius.
As you well know from a couple of Bandwagon-poster experts in the college basketball scheduling business, the approach you describe is just not creative or aggressive enough.
 
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