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With that listing, the only way for a Q2 win is on the road against the top half (roughly).
The rest are Q3 wins if you do it at home against the top half.
 

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This ought to be fun to watch over the next few months. No disrespect meant. There are some teams here that have a shot at some success they haven't had recently. A couple who can really right the ship and build some serious momentum. And there appears to be a bit more parity which should make the day to day "interesting" for lack of a better word. Rooting for SLU and Bonas as they can help the Gaels out somewhat. Enjoy!!!
I hope that the Billikens go undefeated; not that I’m interested in helping out the Gaels of course.
 

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Discussion Starter · #8,004 ·
That’s why I have been so upset about how poorly almost all of our teams have performed in the OOC. Do you still think we have a path for more than one bid A.A.?
Yes. I explained that scenario earlier. No need to explain again...Right?
 

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I’m a little dense A.A. I think Dayton would need to go about 15 and 3 and someone else wins the tournament, or SLU goes about 16 and 2 and someone else wins the tournament in order to get two bids. Whichever team doesn’t win the tournament would sit there biting their nails on Selection Sunday. Does that sound about right?
 

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Discussion Starter · #8,006 ·
I’m a little dense A.A. I think Dayton would need to go about 15 and 3 and someone else wins the tournament, or SLU goes about 16 and 2 and someone else wins the tournament in order to get two bids. Whichever team doesn’t win the tournament would sit there biting their nails on Selection Sunday. Does that sound about right?
Not just Dayton and SLU but that is what I am saying.
 

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Not just Dayton and SLU but that is what I am saying.
I used the Torvik T Ranking Team Cast model and had Dayton going 18-0 in conference, and the model forecasted them as a 12 seed as the auto qualifier.

That be said, I think the committee gives them an at large after going 18-0 in conference. When was the last time an A10 one seed not earned a bid?
 

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Discussion Starter · #8,009 · (Edited)
Understood. Beyond Dayton and SLU though things get tougher. Where Dayton and SLU may have a chance for an at large at 15 and 3, and 16 and 2 respectively, a team like the Rams of The Bronx would probably need to go 18 and 0 to have a shot.
I mean it is going to be tough but not sure why other teams with the same or better records than SLU and UD wouldn't have the same opportunity if they pretty much run the table in conference. SLU dropped five games right? UD did not win a Q1, Q2 or Q3 game. All of their wins are Q4. I have not had my coffee yet but SLU and UD were supposed to carry the A10 banner. Both were ranked and then the shit the bed. Of course, UD is dealing with injuries but other teams have too. VCU two games without Ace and one without DeLoach and had to play two freshmen centers. It happens.
 

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I don't think anyone is running any table in this league in conference play.
(Would love to be wrong)
Meanwhile, the Spiders are practicing for Brooklyn.
 

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Discussion Starter · #8,011 · (Edited)
I don't think anyone is running any table in this league in conference play.
(Would love to be wrong)
Meanwhile, the Spiders are practicing for Brooklyn.
It is a far fetched scenario but if a team does really well in the A10 and ends with something like a 25-6 record or better and wins the regular season they will be in bubble talks. If they lose in the final I can see two teams getting in. No comment on the UR take. They did find a way to make the A10 a two bid league instead of a three bid league last year though. None of this is gonna happen by the way. I have watched every team play and this A10 slate is going to full of upsets. Mainly when teams go on the road.
 

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I mean it is going to be tough but not sure why other teams with the same or better records than SLU and UD wouldn't have the same opportunity if they pretty much run the table in conference. SLU dropped five games right? UD did not win a Q1, Q2 or Q3 game. All of their wins are Q4. I have not had my coffee yet but SLU and UD were supposed to carry the A10 banner. Both were ranked and then the shit the bed. Of course, UD is dealing with injuries but other teams have too. VCU two games without Ace and one without DeLoach and had to play two freshmen centers. It happens.
I think what you’re missing AA is strength of schedule. The Rams of The Bronx had one of the weakest if not the weakest schedules in the country. The Billikens had by far the toughest OOC schedule of any of the A-10 teams. The Flyers and Billikens both had very disappointing OOC results, and as you mentioned, they were expected to be first and second in the conference respectively. Guess what? The A-10 performed so badly in the OOC that despite how badly the Flyers and Billikens performed they are still ranked 1 and 2 as the conference schedule opens. That’s why although neither of them is likely to make the dance as an at large, they still have a somewhat better chance of doing so than any of the other teams.
 

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Discussion Starter · #8,013 ·
I think what you’re missing AA is strength of schedule. The Rams of The Bronx had one of the weakest if not the weakest schedules in the country. The Billikens had by far the toughest OOC schedule of any of the A-10 teams. The Flyers and Billikens both had very disappointing OOC results, and as you mentioned, they were expected to be first and second in the conference respectively. Guess what? The A-10 performed so badly in the OOC that despite how badly the Flyers and Billikens performed they are still ranked 1 and 2 as the conference schedule opens. That’s why although neither of them is likely to make the dance as an at large, they still have a somewhat better chance of doing so than any of the other teams.
I know who people have played. Everyone has been disappointing except Fordham (easy schedule), UMass and Duquesne. SLU had a difficult schedule but should not have lost at home to Boise St and SIUE. As I said, UD had injuries but they only have Q4 wins. No need to prop up SLU and UD as the ones that can get in with a good run.
 

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Discussion Starter · #8,015 ·
Poor Bronx Rams. Get hammered for years for not doing the OOC correctly.
Do it right? Musta been "easy." 😢
Hey, they won their games and they have a good squad but you gotta admit it was set up for a good record coming into conference play. Let's see if they can continue to get wins.
 

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Where has JP disappeared to?
We need his analysis on all this stuff.
Maybe the transfusion of NET into his system that was dependent on RPI has caused some allergic reaction?
 

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Discussion Starter · #8,018 ·
Fordham did exactly what it should be doing… for now. Build momentum within the program with wins. Load up home games and establish a following.

Frankly, it’s the type of OOC the Bonnies should have played with an entirely new roster. The same is true of about half of our teams most years.
A voice of reason. Hey! Happy New Year to you all.

Oh and because you are a wrestling fan check out this doc on the Nature Boy.
 

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I know who people have played. Everyone has been disappointing except Fordham (easy schedule), UMass and Duquesne. SLU had a difficult schedule but should not have lost at home to Boise St and SIUE. As I said, UD had injuries but they only have Q4 wins. No need to prop up SLU and UD as the ones that can get in with a good run.
Believe me A.A. I’m not trying to prop up the chances of the Flyers or Billikens to get an at large. I believe there is next to no chance for either of them to do so. Last year on Selection Sunday the Flyres had a NET of 58 and didn’t make the tournament. That was with OOC wins over Kansas, Virginia Tech, and Miami. I don’t know what the highest NET of a team getting an at large was last year. What do you think (or know) upper 40s? The Rams of The Bronx had the best OOC record this year. How can they lower their NET from the current 118 to the upper 40s by Selection Sunday playing all these low rated A-10 teams? Is it mathematically possible? I suppose with all kinds of crazy results in CBB the rest of the year it might be, but nobody should hold their breath waiting for it.
 

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Discussion Starter · #8,020 ·
Believe me A.A. I’m not trying to prop up the chances of the Flyers or Billikens to get an at large. I believe there is next to no chance for either of them to do so. Last year on Selection Sunday the Flyres had a NET of 58 and didn’t make the tournament. That was with OOC wins over Kansas, Virginia Tech, and Miami. I don’t know what the highest NET of a team getting an at large was last year. What do you think (or know) upper 40s? The Rams of The Bronx had the best OOC record this year. How can they lower their NET from the current 118 to the upper 40s by Selection Sunday playing all these low rated A-10 teams? Is it mathematically possible? I suppose with all kinds of crazy results in CBB the rest of the year it might be, but nobody should hold their breath waiting for it.
UD would have gotten in but Matt Grace killed their chance.
 
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