Professional and College Basketball Forums banner

1 - 2 of 2 Posts

·
Registered
Joined
·
3,504 Posts
Discussion Starter #1
Every year I predict each team's won-loss record in nonconference play so we can track our progress and measure our success as a league. Generally, my league forecasts have been within five games of the actual mark.

I'll post each team's forecast in separate threads, with summary of the noncon sked.

My formula is the same. While I use Blue Ribbon to research all out-of-conference opponents, there are several rules I tend to follow.

1)I mark as a loss all road games vs a BCS team or a very good midmajor program. Only exceptions are for our very best teams.

2)I mark as a loss one unexpected game for every team, or two for our weaker teams. We always have a few stumbles, from top to bottom.

Starting off; Butler.


BUTLER

W - NOV. 10 ELON
W- Nov. 13 at Xavier (counts as a noncon game?)
L - Nov. 19 Marquette (Maui Invitational)
W - Nov. 20 vs. North Carolina/Mississippi State (Maui Invitational)
W- Nov. 21 at Maui Invitational (likely USC or Illinois)
W - NOV. 27 HANOVER
W - DEC. 1 BALL STATE
W - DEC. 5 IUPUI
L - Dec. 8 at Northwestern
L - Dec. 15 vs. Indiana
W - DEC. 22 EVANSVILLE
W - Dec. 29 at Vanderbilt
W - JAN. 2 PENN
W - JAN. 5 NEW ORLEANS
L - JAN. 19 GONZAGA

Noncon prediction: 10-4 (Hanover does not count for RPI purposes)

A-10 prediction: 9-7

Overall: 19-11

Elon has a young and up-and-coming team with a good backcourt, but Butler has the size and home cooking.

In Hawaii, Butler loses to a beatable Marquette team. The Warriors are looking for scorers, but they play a VCU-like style and could trouble the Butler backcourt. This could be a very telling game about Butler for the A-10 and the rest of the college hoops world early on.

Butler probably gets MSU next. The “other” Bulldogs lost all five starters and should fall prey to the “real” Bulldogs. In the finale, USC or Illinois are the likely foes. Illinois has a new coach and USC (with Jio Fontan back) was dreadful last year.

Hanover is a good break coming back from Hawaii. A lot of teams lose that first game back from a long trip. Ball State and IUPUI are next. Both underachieved last year, lost some starters and simply are not good enough to beat a Butler team at home that plays well.

I see a pair of losses at Northwestern and vs Indiana. Northwestern returns all but one key player from a 19-win team and coach Carmody thinks he’s going to get to the NCAAs this year or next. Winnable game, for sure, but I stick with my normal rules.

Indiana has too much talent and athleticism and Crean can match wits with any coach.

Evansville has their own version of Rotnei Clarke in Colt Ryan. Butler fans might remember from last year’s road loss, when Ryan scored 23 (mostly on freebies). Yet the Dogs return the favor this year.

Vandy is a tough place to win, but Kevin Stallings lost his top six players. Ripe for the picking if Butler is disciplined. Penn is coming off a 20-win season and is on the rise again, but graduation losses took a toll. Butler wins at home. New Orleans is in between conferences and is just a so-so team.

The Gonzaga game is huge. Dogs have a chance to avenge last year’s loss in Spokane. Gonzaga is more talented in the backcourt and frontcourt, but Butler has the ability to hold court in the Fieldhouse.

If the B-Dogs win this game, and go 10-6 in A-10 play, I see them at 21 wins and dancing.
 
1 - 2 of 2 Posts
Top