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Discussion Starter · #1 ·
Welcome to fantasy land. I think the NCAA should transition to a Hoosiers-style open tournament, in which every Division I team makes the tournament, regardless of record, transition status, or sanctions.

How does it work?

Round 1 consists of teams 155 (New Mexico) to 358 (IUPUI) playing to get us down to a round number of 256. I used the kenpom ratings, because they are most easily accessible and do what we want here- predict which team is the best. These games would be hosted on campus by the higher seeds. We ignore conferences, so we get some intra-conference matchups (#262 Louisiana-Monroe at #251 Georgia Southern, for example). Some matchups are completely random (when Albany figures out where California Baptist University is, they can let us know). Some are sad statements about the state of a program (the only Big East team to play in this round in the three years I've tracked it - 2022 Georgetown hosting Bucknell).

Are fans at say, Georgia, going to be really excited to host Binghamton in the opening round? Probably not. But for a number of teams, hosting an opening round game could be a big deal, and a sign of progress. If you're Western Illinois and you go on the road in Round 1 for two straight years then get to host Jackson State? That's pretty cool!

Round 2 has the rest of Division I join in. The top 128 seeded teams will host. Teams 129-154 received Round 1 byes but have to travel in Round 2. That's a tough break. We get some expected blowouts (Gonzaga hosting the winner of Tennessee Tech and Air Force). We get some 20 win mid-majors facing each other (Delaware @ Stephen F. Austin). We get some mediocre P5 schools hosting upset minded small schools (Wagner @ Ole Miss, North Dakota State @ Florida State). We get some sad P5 matchups (Mizzou @ Utah). And we get some big schools on the road at mid-majors (BC @ Montana State, Cal @ Utah Valley).

The winners of those games play at the higher remaining seed in Round 3. And after that, we are down to 64 and our normal neutral site tournament.
 

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Discussion Starter · #2 ·
Here's where our AE schools would be going:

ALBANY would be on the road at Cal Baptist in Round 1. The winner comes back east to visit Seton Hall. In 2021 Albany would have hosted R1 against UIC, with the winner off to Texas Tech. In 2020 Albany would have again been on the road at North Dakota in R1.

BINGHAMTON would be at Georgia in Round 1. The winner heads to Wake Forest. Binghamton would have traveled to Valparaiso and Delaware in previous years. Credit where it is due, their seed has risen from 333 to 322 to 293.

HARTFORD would be on the road at Harvard. Winner to Memphis. This would be Hartford's first R1 road game. The prior two years both would have had UH hosting Northwestern State. In 2020 Hartford would have been seeded to lose at Houston in R2, in 2021 it would have been Richmond.

MAINE falls to seed #354 of 358 and a trip to Oral Roberts. Previously, as #344 in 2021 Maine would have gone to UNLV and as #320 in 2020 Maine would have gone to Nicholls State.

UMBC gets a R1 home game for the third year in a row, this time hosting Canisius for the right to go to Texas. With a much higher seed in 2021 (166 v. 242), UMBC would have hosted Tennessee-Martin to go to Winthrop. 2020, as #256 (the lowest number to host), UMBC would have hosted VMI for the right to visit #1 Kansas.

UML would host for the second year running, drawing Hockey East rival Northeastern. The winner would face #8 UCLA. In 2021 UML would have hosted North Carolina A&T for the right to go to LSU, and in 2020 UML would have gone to Eastern Illinois.

UNH would host for the second time in three years, drawing Alcorn State for the right to go to #12 Duke. In 2020 UNH would have hosted Grand Canyon for the right to face #9 Louisville. In 2021 UNH would have traveled to Stetson.

NJIT gets its third straight road game, at a decent Southern Utah team as the #343 seed. NJIT actually was #296 in both 2020 and 2021, heading to East Carolina and South Alabama, respectively.

Stony Brook, despite declining in seed from 192 to 230 to 252, would host New Orleans for the right to face #5 Baylor. In 2020 it was a home game against Samford to go to URI, and in 2021 it was North Alabama to go to West Virginia.

And, of course, Vermont. Vermont would be seeded into the field of 64 this year, starting with a first round bye. In R2, Vermont would face the winner of #315 Central Michigan at #198 Niagara. A nice taste test before an R3 home game against #70 Colorado, provided the Buffaloes get through East Tennessee State or Little Rock. The likely Round of 64 opponent would be #6 Kansas, barring a massive upset by the likes of Ohio or Seattle in Lawrence.

This would be Vermont's third first round bye. in 2020 it would have lead to a likely home game against LaSalle before heading to Oklahoma State in R3. In 2021 UVM would have been one of those unlucky schools with a first round bye only to head out on the road in R2, to face Weber State.
 

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All kinds of logistical issues ... are arenas available? Extra time not in school for the players who, at least in the mid- and low-majors, are students first. The majors won't want to share any of the NCAA pool with everyone. Plus, there's an everyone gets a trophy issue. And, the scenario you propose would kill conference post-season tournaments which is where leagues make part of their operating budget. What's the sense of the AE, NEC, MAAC, other one-bid leagues, playing post-season tournaments if everyone is going anyway? The structure you advocate extends the NCAA's at least another week. It's plenty long enough now. Cal Baptist is in Riverside, California, about 60 or 70 miles directly east of LA. I'm sure Albany would absolutely love to know it has to take on the expense of that trip. Your scenario would also put every other national post-season tournament (NIT, CBI, etc.) out of business. Nice work putting all this together. It's nice to dream. But, does anyone think this will ever happen? If it does, sign me up for Hartford at Harvard!
 

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All kinds of logistical issues ... are arenas available? Extra time not in school for the players who, at least in the mid- and low-majors, are students first. The majors won't want to share any of the NCAA pool with everyone. Plus, there's an everyone gets a trophy issue. And, the scenario you propose would kill conference post-season tournaments which is where leagues make part of their operating budget. What's the sense of the AE, NEC, MAAC, other one-bid leagues, playing post-season tournaments if everyone is going anyway? The structure you advocate extends the NCAA's at least another week. It's plenty long enough now. Cal Baptist is in Riverside, California, about 60 or 70 miles directly east of LA. I'm sure Albany would absolutely love to know it has to take on the expense of that trip. Your scenario would also put every other national post-season tournament (NIT, CBI, etc.) out of business. Nice work putting all this together. It's nice to dream. But, does anyone think this will ever happen? If it does, sign me up for Hartford at Harvard!
:rolleyes:
 

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You can do this right now, but if your're using Kenpom rankings every game will be won by the team with the higher Kenpom rank, which is in decreasing AdjEM order. Gonzaga wins it all with 32.97 AdjEM and IUPUI comes in last with -31.57. If these 2 teams were to play Gonzaga is predicted to win by 64.54 points, unless there is a homecourt advantage adder.

Since year after year nobody even gets close to Kenpom, good luck with coming up with your own better model .
 

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You can do this right now, but if your're using Kenpom rankings every game will be won by the team with the higher Kenpom rank, which is in decreasing AdjEM order. Gonzaga wins it all with 32.97 AdjEM and IUPUI comes in last with -31.57. If these 2 teams were to play Gonzaga is predicted to win by 64.54 points, unless there is a homecourt advantage adder.

Since year after year nobody even gets close to Kenpom, good luck with coming up with your own better model .
I’d love to know the accuracy in which KenPom predicts the winner of any given contest based on his rankings. Is it 90% of the time the higher ranked KenPom team wins? 75%? I’d certainly guess more than half the time, but how much higher than 50%?

It would obviously be a big difference talking about a top 50 team vs a bottom 50 compared to two teams within the same 50 team grouping.
 

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I counted up the conference tourney "Fan Match" predictions over the last couple of weeks and Kenpom was right 67% of the time. That's the most appropriate time period I think. There are a lot of upsets during the tournaments because a lot of teams improve over time and play better at the end than their season average. I haven't seen anything indicating that a ranking is anything other than a season average.

I've heard that Kenpom numbers are used by a lot of betting organizations but that's just word of mouth.
 

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Discussion Starter · #13 ·
2023 update:

ALBANY: Seed #347 and a long road trip to #166, 19-13 South Dakota State. The winner heads west to face #91 UNLV.

BINGHAMTON: #311 and an trip to #202, 15-16 Gardner-Webb. Winner travels to #55 NC State.

BRYANT: #209, hosting #304 Charleston Southern (10-21). Winner heads to #48 Liberty. A win over Liberty would get Bryant into a matchup against (in descending seed) Virginia Tech, East Carolina, or Elon.

MAINE: #283, a trip to #230 (14-19) Mercer, winner at TCU.

UMBC: #253, hosting #260 Nicholls State (16-15), winner is at #4 UConn.

UMASS LOWELL: #138, and a first round bye. Second round would be at #119 Cal State Fullerton (20-13), winner at (likely) #10 Arizona (or Morehead State/Miami-Ohio).

NEW HAMPSHIRE: #286, a trip to #227 Sacramento State (14-18). Winner heads to #30 Indiana.

NJIT: #331, at #182 Radford (19-14). Winner to #75 BYU.

VERMONT: #113 and a first round bye. Second round hosting #144 Cornell (17-11). Winner of that game likely travels to #16 Xavier (or Alcorn State/Lafayette).

Some old friends:

STONY BROOK: #328, at #185 Chattanooga (18-17) to go to #72 Utah.
HARTFORD: #362, at #151 Missouri State (17-15) to go to #106 Washington.
CCSU: #343, at #170 Texas A&M Corpus Christi (23-10) to go to #87 Toledo.
 

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Discussion Starter · #14 ·
Historical data. All "games played" assumes higher seeds winning:

ALBANY:
Seeds 282, 234, 291, 347
Home games: UIC
Road games: North Dakota, Texas Tech, California Baptist, South Dakota State

BINGHAMTON:
Seeds 333, 322, 293, 311
Home games: None
Road games: Delaware, Valparaiso, Georgia, Gardner-Webb

BRYANT:
Seeds: 234, 174, 183, 209
Home games: Southern Mississippi, Central Connecticut State, Northwestern State, Charleston Southern
Road games: Iowa, Stanford, Rutgers, Liberty

MAINE:
Seeds: 320, 344, 354, 283
Home games: None
Road games: Nicholls State, UNLV, Oral Roberts, Mercer

UMBC:
Seeds: 256, 166, 242, 253
Home games: VMI, Tennessee-Martin, Canisius, Nicholls State
Road games: Kansas, Winthrop, Texas, UConn

LOWELL:
Seeds: 275, 228, 249, 138
Home games: North Carolina A&T, Northeastern
Road games: Eastern Illinois, LSU, UCLA, Cal State Fullerton

NEW HAMPSHIRE:
Seeds: 248, 265, 245, 286
Home games: Grand Canyon, Alcorn State
Road games: Louisville, Stetson, Duke, Sacramento State

NJIT:
Seeds: 296, 296, 343, 331
Home games: None
Road games: East Carolina, South Alabama, Southern Utah, Radford

VERMONT:
Seeds: 76, 130, 59, 113
Home games: La Salle, Niagara, Colorado, Cornell
Road games: Oklahoma State, Weber State, Xavier
Neutral games: Kansas
 
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