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And how funny would it be if UConn makes it into the Big Ten while BC dangles in the tobacco laced winds of the ACC?!? :laugh::laugh::laugh:

Watch for a massive meltdown of pinheads up on the Hill if that happens! ;)
Oh, I think NUHF would organize a tailgate to watch that meltdown!!!! :laugh: :laugh: :laugh:
 

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William and Mary won't sever all its rivalries with other VA schools to be in a conference with SBU and Delaware.

I believe the schools are likely to split on demographics, since that's where their monetary trajectory will send them.

Thus, using the members of your model I see SBU in a league with other large, primary football institutions like Old Dominion, Charlotte, JMU, Ga State, U Mass, Temple, Delaware, and Buffalo (throw in Villanova as an affiliate to preserve their rivalry with Delaware and you're at 10 members. If you want 12 add in William & Mary and Richmond to lock down the VA market even further, though they don't match the demographic). This would be a very high end FCS league that could go FBS over the next decade or two as a group since -
1. Football is their #1 investment
2. Budgets (particularly football investments) already surpass many FBS schools
3. School population is 25K+ and stadiums are all expandable to the "official" FBS minimum (Stony Brook's can expand to ~20K if opposite sideline, corners, and end zone filled. That was the goal of the initial stadium design)
4. Endowments are all on an upward trajectory
5. You need a conference invite to move up, which means it's likely that the only way these schools can make that move would be if they latched onto an expansion as a block. Pile of issues around that, but with Temple and Buffalo as existing members it's not unrealistic to see the MAC expand or CUSA split to bring in these schools. You'd have the NYS upstate, NYC, Philly, MD/DC/VA, and NC Charlotte markets covered, giving you a chunk of marketing change.

For the record
1. While you're correct that Albany and Rhode Island (Towson might too? I know URI does but don't know of Towson's arrangement with the CAA) have reduced scholarships, SBU, UNH, U Mass, Maine, and Villanova all are at full rides. No possibility of Villanova entering the Patriot league for football. They'd affiliate with the group of larger schools.
I agree about the demographics and the monetary trajectory stuff, that's why I aligned JMU, ODU and the other large, public Southeastern schools. I have no idea how the final grouping will evolve because Youngstown State is kind of in limbo because the MAC won't accept them. Buffalo, Temple and UMass could easily fit within this group which I alluded to. But no way does either W&M or Richmond project to this type of group. Richmond is opening a brand new football stadium with a 9K capacity! They were forced by the city of Richmond to that capacity. W&M's stadium probably could be expanded, but it sits right on the edge of the colonial district of Williamsburg -- a significant expansion isn't happening. Plus, neither school is remotely close to 25K students.

People always said JMU would never leave their VA rivals, but with the school growing and their desire to continue to expand their football stadium, they have to move away from those VA rivals to grow their football program. William & Mary will have choices, a Patriot League with football scholarships (they almost joined at the inception of the Patriot); a SoCon with small privates, high quality academic schools with a couple of small publics; a public-private combo of FCS Football schools or alignment with the AE-CAA football schools remaining.

I didn't include Stony Brook with the group of larger publics because I figured they would be so geographically isolated and frankly I forgot about their grandiose aspirations. From the many discussions I've had with Delaware alums, I just don't see them aligning with the group I mentioned. But if you came up with a North Division of UMass, SBU, Buffalo, Temple, Delaware and say JMU or Youngstown State, then maybe it happens. The bottom line I see is that those schools better to be ready to make that decision when the explosion occurs. I'm not sure Buffalo isn't happier with the Midwest schools. I'm not sure UMass can pull the trigger and raise the funds. I'm not sure Delaware is ready to go that route -- they did approve a modest expansion of their stadium rather than a brand new one. Can Stony Brook fund the stadium expansion without much state assistance? Is Stony Brook ready to jump on board if the closest league mate is James Madison?

I just see that if the CAA split into two or three leagues, you'd have the group of Southeastern schools ready to align without the issues outlined about. You'd have built in OOC games with the old rivals. And you'd have your block to meet the NCAA regs. (Not sure they won't be blown asunder if the B10-16 explosion occurs.) Shoot, this new league could end up being the best home for West Virginia who probably wouldn't get invited to either the ACC nor the B10-16.

Going to be an interesting 12-18 months!!!!
 

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Some primary hopes if the explosion does occur:

Parochial Two (New MAAC): Loyola (MD), Mt. St. Mary’s (MD), Fairfield, Sacred Heart, Iona, Manhattan, St. Francis (NY), St. Peter’s, St. Bonaventure, *Marist

Patriot: *American (no football), Bucknell, Colgate, Duquesne, Fordham, Holy Cross, Lafayette, Lehigh, Monmouth, Army (FBS Football), Navy (FBS Football), *Villanova (football only)

NEC: Central CT, Quinnipiac, Bryant, Wagner, Farleigh Dickinson, Long Island, Robert Morris, St. Francis (PA)

"Midwest Urban": Dayton, Xavier, Marquette, DePaul, Detroit-Mercy, Bradley, Butler, Evansville, Saint Louis
Only five for football in the NEC, with Monmouth in the PL; CCSU also possible for full-ride FB?; possibly Marist football to the NEC rather than the MUC or PFL?
 

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League Three: BU, NU, Hartford, Hofstra, Rider, Drexel, George Washington, George Mason, VA Commonwealth, UMBC, Binghamton, Vermont

This would be a fun hoops league.
 

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Only five for football in the NEC, with Monmouth in the PL; CCSU also possible for full-ride FB?; possibly Marist fotball to the NEC rather than the MUC or PFL?
Marist isn't leaving the PFL. Albany is a member of the NEC, so there's its 6th. CCSU is rumored to be interested in going higher, but it won't happen while it's an all sports NEC member.
 

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Marist isn't leaving the PFL. Albany is a member of the NEC, so there's its 6th. CCSU is rumored to be interested in going higher, but it won't happen while it's an all sports NEC member.
But in this scenario Albany (and SBU) are in 'League Two' and Monmouth is in the Patriot for football, leaving the NEC short, hence the NEC's need for a football affiliated Marist, which may prefer to lower its travel costs. Otherwise the NEC loses its autobid. Duquesne may give the NEC its 6th, but that's shaky ground long-term.

Albany will finish fulfilling its NEC contract this year, barring a renewal.
 

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You're correct UAalum72!! That's why MJ also said he hadn't put everything together with the NEC. That's the dilemma with all this re-alignment -- do so in such a way as to not kill any league. You've got to leave behind a viable NEC Football League or find homes for all of them. I ran into the same thing with the Big South Conference. Things fell in place better with OVC, MVC and Big Sky! And I've been trying things with 10 team leagues and 12 team leagues seeing which way left fewer dangling schools.

In some variations of my alignments, I've had Bryant in the Patriot, CCSU in "League Two", Wagner, SFPA, Robert Morris and Sacred Heart in the Pioneer, Duquesne in both the Patriot and Pioneer. I tried to migrate all the NEC football schools into another league, but I'm not sure that a suitable home (read: number of scholarships) can be found for all of them elsewhere. There probably is a niche for a reduced scholarship league.

Based on reading so many Patriot League posters on AGS, it's probably very unlikely that Monmouth, Marist, Duquesne or any other school in the Northeast not named Villanova would be admitted. Marist is most likely happy with the Pioneer since travel costs are significantly less than scholarship costs. That's why I left them in the MAAC. I don't really know how ambitious Monmouth and Duquesne are with football scholarships. Duquesne doesn't really help geographically, but Monmouth certainly fits the America East footprint.

It would certainly make things easier if certain schools could fit into the Patriot profile and if certain schools went full scholarship. Having Northeastern and Hofstra on the football side of the ledger would make this easier too.

Question UA'72, do you think Albany will go independent rather than re-up with the NEC? It would be real tough to give up that AQ!!! Maybe you guys can negotiate two year contracts????
 

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League Three: BU, NU, Hartford, Hofstra, Rider, Drexel, George Washington, George Mason, VA Commonwealth, UMBC, Binghamton, Vermont

This would be a fun hoops league.
The $64K question is whether GW, GMU and VCU would feel the same way? Or would it push GMU and VCU to start football programs so they can re-align with ODU, JMU, GA State, Charlotte, and maybe even Louisville and Cincinnati from the old Metro days?
 

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I don't really know how ambitious Monmouth and Duquesne are with football scholarships. Duquesne doesn't really help geographically, but Monmouth certainly fits the America East footprint...
Question UA'72, do you think Albany will go independent rather than re-up with the NEC? It would be real tough to give up that AQ!!! Maybe you guys can negotiate two year contracts????
It's been stated in Duquesne's game notes that they had 18 scholarships during their first year in the NEC and were only going to build to 24 in the next three years, by which time the NEC would be allowing 40. So "ambitious" is not the word for the Dukes.

For 2011, it may depend on whether the NEC moves for another bump up to 57 (I think unlikely for the short term). Albany does have a game vs. Cincinnati coming up in a year or two. Not only is losing the AQ tough, but so is scheduling esp. home games with the speed of our stadium 'improvements'. OTOH we're only getting four home games as it is anyway even with a league.
 

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The $64K question is whether GW, GMU and VCU would feel the same way? Or would it push GMU and VCU to start football programs so they can re-align with ODU, JMU, GA State, Charlotte, and maybe even Louisville and Cincinnati from the old Metro days?
That's an expensive push. Here's another $64K question: If GMU and VCU feel they need football teams to be aligned with those other schools, then why don't they have football already? They can't be very concerned about alignment given they are southern schools without a predominantly southern sport.
 

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That's an expensive push. Here's another $64K question: If GMU and VCU feel they need football teams to be aligned with those other schools, then why don't they have football already? They can't be very concerned about alignment given they are southern schools without a predominantly southern sport.
Both schools have openly evaluated football options. They don't need to push further since CAA Football isn't the same thing as the CAA. Thus, it's not a huge deal. With re-alignment, they may be forced into an arrangement that might bring football into the equation.
 

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Both schools have openly evaluated football options. They don't need to push further since CAA Football isn't the same thing as the CAA. Thus, it's not a huge deal. With re-alignment, they may be forced into an arrangement that might bring football into the equation.
I think you've missed the point of my post and just repeated the same question UNH Alum asked.
 

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That's an expensive push. Here's another $64K question: If GMU and VCU feel they need football teams to be aligned with those other schools, then why don't they have football already? They can't be very concerned about alignment given they are southern schools without a predominantly southern sport.
Or maybe they didn't think the re-alignment would be a B10-16 type of explosion? Maybe they thought they had time with their guaranteed entry into CAA Football until 2017 (IIRC)? Or maybe they are truly happy being a basketball school and figured they'd always find a home in a conference without football schools?

For example, let's say that my proposed SE league with larger public institutions with FBS aspirations evolves. They could go with ten football schools and include GMU and VCU for a twelve member league to ease travel and retain those VA rivalries for JMU and ODU. They could have twelve football members to allow a championship game and still add GMU and VCU for the same reasons.

Or who knows, maybe GMU and VCU would be just fine in a hoop centric league with George Washington, Drexel, Hofstra, BU, NU, etc. Pretty sure BU would be happy with this alignment.

It will be interesting though because I believe GMU and VCU are two of the largest schools in the South to not field a football team. Although these days a lot of folks in the South don't consider Northern Virginia (GMU) to be Southern any more.
 

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Discussion Starter #55
To continue on with my scenarios and how it will effect remaining members of the CAA and others........


I think that there will be a hybrid A-10/CAA basketball only league:

NU
Boston U. (if they aren't invited to "new" Big East Basketball)
Hofstra
St. Bonaventure
Drexel
LaSalle
St. Joes (if they aren't invited to "new" Big East Basketball)
George Washington (if they aren't invited to "new" Big East Basketball)
George Mason
VCU

*Duquesne will look to the Midwest for a new home.


The new FBS Conference should look something like this:

Temple (A-10)
Cincinnati (if they don't get invited to the SEC)
JMU (CAA)
ODU (if they aren't invited to the ACC)
Marshall (Conference USA)
West Virginia (if they don't get invited to the ACC or SEC)
Charlotte (A-10)
East Carolina (Conference USA)
Louisville (if they don't get invited to the ACC)
Memphis (if they don't get invited to the SEC)
Georgia State (CAA)
Central Florida (Conference USA)
South Florida (if they don't get invited to the ACC)
Florida Atlantic (Sunbelt)

This conference will have only 12 members......all "ifs" will definitely be a part of this conference if they don't end up somewhere else.

Florida Atlantic would be the first one to go if all 14 were in play.

JMU would likely be next due to Marshall/West Virginia proximity and lack of history at FBS level.
 

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Jeff, since it is a new league, why do you have a Sun Belt team included? And where do you see GA Southern, App State and JAX State going? No doubt they are going to be involved if something of this ilk happens! Personally, I think JMU, ODU, ECU, App and Charlotte being so relatively close will stick together. GA State has history with Charlotte and the obvious CAA connection with JMU and ODU. Once App is in, you've got to figure that GA Southern will be too, especially to have another GA team. Those SoCon ties bring in Marshall. Then with JAX State on the Eastern side of Bama and so close to Atlanta, they make sense. That was my train of thought.

But if C-USA ends up "inheriting" West Virginia, South Florida, Cincinnati and Louisville, then wresting ECU and Marshall away will be very difficult! Those five along with Memphis, Central Florida, Southern Miss and maybe Tulane isn't too shabby. Lot's of option for a twelve team league and will depend on how much the B12 is poached. Charlotte might prefer this set up as well.

So many dominoes!!!!!!! :laugh: And I'm more concerned with what happens in the Northeast!!!
 

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Or who knows, maybe GMU and VCU would be just fine in a hoop centric league with George Washington, Drexel, Hofstra, BU, NU, etc. Pretty sure BU would be happy with this alignment.

It will be interesting though because I believe GMU and VCU are two of the largest schools in the South to not field a football team. Although these days a lot of folks in the South don't consider Northern Virginia (GMU) to be Southern any more.
My response to your original question was meant to say that I have a hard time believing a school is going to make a multi-million dollar decision based on the direction a separate institution is going. That just doesn't seem very logical. If football was important to the school- they would have it now-and not just create it so they can play ODU in hoops. That just doesn't make good sense to me, but who knows.
 

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My response to your original question was meant to say that I have a hard time believing a school is going to make a multi-million dollar decision based on the direction a separate institution is going. That just doesn't seem very logical. If football was important to the school- they would have it now-and not just create it so they can play ODU in hoops. That just doesn't make good sense to me, but who knows.
Well, I can say that one of the reasons UConn is playing FBS Football today is because they anticipated this type of explosion. They wanted to be sure that they stayed in the mix with the power conferences/schools. Their AD at the time warned CT that not having football could impact basketball down the road and that schools that played big time hoop AND football would be the power brokers in the NCAA. Today UConn is in the discussion for the Big Ten and the ACC if the huge explosion occurs. Georgetown and Villanova who play FCS Football are not in the discussion. The failure to make a similar investment may very well negatively impact their basketball revenue. I don't think a Big East Basketball league without the football schools will make the same kind of money that the Big East does today.

I believe Charlotte is adding football because not having a football team has adversely affected them in conference alignment. And they're starting from scratch and don't have a stadium on campus like ODU did when they started their program which adds even more to the costs. South Alabama in Mobile is starting from scratch and will use the stadium used for the bowl game held there. Georgia State is starting from scratch and has rented the Georgia Dome for their games. They don't intend to hang around FCS very long, neither does Charlotte IMHO.

Absolutely no argument that it is a huge, huge investment. But when you're a large enrollment institution and you want to be aligned with schools who are similar, not having football is an impediment. How many other 25-30K+ enrollment schools don't play football? Look how Charlotte has bounced around and has become a geographic outlier in the A-10. Other than UMass or Temple is there another school in the A-10 that is remotely similar to Charlotte? (FWIW, the Charlotte posters on the CAAZone don't want to become a full member of the CAA once they have football, their sights are set higher.)

Up to now, GMU and VCU haven't needed football to be an all sports member of the CAA. But if the CAA implodes as fallout from this explosion, then IMO they'll have decisions to make since the CAA they like may not exist any longer. Having football would provide more options. Just like BU would have more options for a future conference if they had football. I have no idea if the cost of adding football is worth it to either GMU or VCU. :whoknows:
 

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Discussion Starter #59
I don't see either VCU or GMU adding football.......they may be large institutions, but outside of campus, I don't see a huge market for either of these programs considering the $milllions that they would have to spend just to start up an FCS or FBS program from scratch.

Regarding App State, Georgia Southern, and Jax State........don't see a heck of a lot of room or demand for any of them. As I said in my prior post, Louisville, Cincinnati, Temple, West Virginia, Memphis, Central Florida & South Florida all rise to the top of the heap if they don't latch on with a BCS conference. Marshall, Charlotte, East Carolina, ODU, Georgia State are all next after those schools.......then JMU & Florida Atlantic.

If many of those top tier schools are chosen to join BCS expansions then App State comes into play......and maybe Jax State. I don't see Georgia Southern having any shot though.
 

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With it being conference realignment and all, I'm just going to preface this post by saying this is just a lot of guesswork going into this. Anyhow, I've seen a number of writers and officials bring up the realistic possibility of there being four 16 team "super-conferences". Evidently, it's a somewhat plausable scenario, so here's how I guess it would shake-out. Note that this is pretty much based on football, going on the assumption that the basketball-only Big East schools would form their own sort of All Catholic League:

Northeast/Midwest League:

Pittsburgh
Rutgers
UConn
Syracuse
Boston College
Ohio State
Iowa
Penn State
Northwestern
Wisconsin
Michigan State
Purdue
Minnesota
Illinois
Indiana
Michigan

ACC Offshoot

Clemson
Florida State
Wake Forest
Maryland
Georgia Tech
NC State
North Carolina
Duke
South Carolina
Virginia Tech
Virginia
Miami
Louisville
Cincinnati
West Virginia
South Florida

New SEC/Southwest

Florida
Georgia
Tennessee
Kentucky
Vanderbilt
Alabama
LSU
Ole Miss
Arkansas
Auburn
Mississippi
Texas
Texas A&M
Texas Tech
Oklahoma State
Oklahoma
Baylor

West (Relative Term)

Nebraska
Missouri
Colorado
Kansas
Kansas State
Iowa State
Oregon
Arizona
Arizona State
Oregon State
Stanford
USC
UCLA
California
Washington
Washington State


League go with three 16 team leagues and one 17 team league, but that's the best I could really think of. Really just tried to go with best geographic fit and split up the Big 12 North and Big 12 South

The All-Catholic League for basketball would probably go like this:

Georgetown
Villanova
Marquette
Notre Dame (stay an Indep. in football)
Seton Hall
St. John's
Providence
DePaul
Xavier
Dayton

As for setting up massive realignment in the mid and low major ranks, it probably wouldn't go very far with the superconference setup. A-10 could seek to add two teams to replace Xavier and Dayton, but then again, they may just want to scale back to 12 teams.

Obviously I'm no mainejeff, but figured I'd give it a try
 
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