Professional and College Basketball Forums banner

Conference Expansion: Explosion Happening!

1M views 9K replies 200 participants last post by  mainejeff 
#1 · (Edited)
There has been plenty of rumor and articles during the past couple of weeks that suggest possible expansion of various BCS leagues......and now comes this from the Big East:

Marinatto: Time to think outside the box

Their commish talks about possible expansion to 20 teams!!! It has also been suggested that the Big Ten may go to 16 teams and the Pac-10 is on the verge of adding Colorado and Utah. Looks like it will be an all out war between the BCS leagues......and then the fallout hits the rest of us. I think that we are going to see some BIG changes!
 
#3 ·
We basically have three "sports" competing here - FBS (I-A), FCS (I-AA) in football and I-A hoops.

If the Big East, Big Ten, ACC, and SEC start shuffling around the smaller conferences like the A-10 are going to add members or disappear.

So what happens to the Colonial? The Sun Belt (a true mid-major conference with FBS football)?

It could get ugly quickly for some conferences.
 
#4 · (Edited)
It could get ugly quickly for some conferences.
Darn right! This could be one time that America East actually benefits from being tucked away in the Northeast corner with a relatively small footprint.

I think that the Big Ten and Big East are about to go to war against each other. It's obvious that the Big East is now in survival mode, and that it is looking like they have ditched any thoughts of splitting.

Here are my scenarios for the Big Ten and Big East:

Scenario A: Big Ten goes to 16 schools

Syracuse
Rutgers
Penn State
Pitt
Ohio State
Michigan
Michigan State
Indiana

Notre Dame
Northwestern
Purdue
Illinois
Wisconsin
Minnesota
Iowa
Missouri

Then:

ACC Expands to 16 schools:

BC
UConn
Maryland
Virginia
Virginia Tech
ODU
Louisville
NC State

North Carolina
Duke
Wake Forest
Clemson
Georgia Tech
Florida State
South Florida
Miami

Then the SEC expands to 16 schools:

West Virginia
Cincinnati
Kentucky
Tennessee
Vanderbilt
Memphis
South Carolina
Georgia

Florida
Alabama
Auburn
Ole Miss
Mississippi State
LSU
Arkansas
Houston

The Big East regroups as a 12 team basketball conference:

Boston U.
Providence
St. John's
Seton Hall
Villanova
St. Joe's

Georgetown
George Washington
Dayton
Xavier
DePaul
Marquette

Meanwhile........

The PAC-10 goes to 12 schools:

Washington
Washington State
Oregon
Oregon State
Cal
Stanford

UCLA
USC
Arizona
Arizona State
Colorado
Utah

Then the Big 12 takes in 2 to replace Missouri and Colorado:

Nebraska
Kansas State
Kansas
Iowa State
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State

Rice
Texas
Texas A&M
Texas Tech
Baylor
TCU

So.......Mountain West and WAC survivors (plus Long Beach State) form:

Boise State
Idaho
Wyoming
Colorado State
Air Force
Utah State
New Mexico
New Mexico State

BYU
San Jose State
Fresno State
Nevada
UNLV
Long Beach State
San Diego State
Hawaii



Phew!......to be continued. ;)
 
#18 · (Edited)
Well, you're leaving out a few pretty decent named schools here

So let me propose what might happen to the rest

Hybrid Mid-Major conference w/Football (15 members + 1 affiliate)
North
Stony Brook
Fordham
Albany
Maine
U Mass
UNH
Rhode Island
Delaware
Villanova (football only)

South
Richmond
James Madison
Towson
William & Mary
Charlotte
Georgia State
Liberty
South Carolina State

Basketball Only Mid-Major Conference: (14 members)

Vermont
UMBC
Hartford
Temple/Boston Univ (I think Temple goes, not BU, since Temple has football)
Saint Louis
Duquesne
St. Bonaventure
Northeastern
George Mason
VCU
Drexel
Hofstra
UNC Wilmington
Binghamton
 
#19 ·
As you read this - I'd like to point out that many of the FCS football forums already project that this is what the football re-alignment will look like.

Frankly, I kinda like the way these divisions look. Infinitely more competitive on both ends. Nearly certain that the auto-bid of these conferences (both football and non-football) would avoid the "dreaded" play-in game, regardless of how many of them there are. I'd even make a case that they'd be more competitive in basketball than the WAC, Mountain West, and the basketball-only Big East.
 
#24 ·
I sure hope Mike Lynch is preparing a strong case when the dominoes do fall. I don't see any way BU lands as high as that MaineJeff, unless a conference is completely basing it off markets and really want a team Boston. It'll be interesting to see what happens with GW, Richmond and similar teams. I think that's where BU wants to be.
 
#26 ·
I don't think Richmond and BU will end up in the same conference on football grounds alone. Now true, football conference on the FCS level isn't necessarily other sport conference (Stony Brook stands as the perfect example), but I see a shift ending those discrepancies.
 
#27 ·
As a joint BU and Louisville fan, this is a dicey situation for me. On one hand I want this because I think it'll take dominoes falling for BU to ever get into a conference like the A-10. The Big East? Doubt that will ever happen.

As far as Louisville goes, I think both them and Cincy are pretty f***** if this goes down as expected. They're both schools with smaller influences because their fanbases are limited to their respective cities in states dominated by the major state school. Cincinnati football's come a long way, but their basketball team's also fallen a long way in the same time. Louisville basketball is an institution in college hoops, and if this was all happening a few years back when Cardinal football was a BCS bowl champion, I'd be feeling a lot better. But alas, they've fallen too.

I see Louisville being excluded from the ACC largely because of academics and because their home state's not technically on the Atlantic Coast. Kentucky will stiff them from the SEC, so the Big 12 might honestly be the best option for them, if they're even invited. Looks like it could be Conference USA 2.0 all over again for Louisville and Cincinnati
 
#29 ·
I'm with Kingfish here.

I've been trying to do some "superconference ramafication" scenarios as well, and the schools that I consistently can't find homes for are Louisville and Cincy.

Neither TV market brings much to the table. Both schools are second in their respective states behind UK and Ohio State (and you could argue Cincy also has its fair share of UK fans due to geography) - and unless Louisville basketball is enough of a draw for an ACC (which the ACC may do to get into an SEC state), they may wind up in Conference USA Redux.
 
#33 ·
Some primary hopes if the explosion does occur:

  • Football becomes an organizing factor in the fallout re-alignment.
  • Schools like JMU, Delaware, UMass, Old Dominion, etc. make a decision they can and will live with for 20-30 years.
  • The Patriot League makes a freaking decision on football scholarships so their members can make a decision.
  • If 64 teams segregated themselves into super conferences to control the $$$$$$ and schools like Villanova and Georgetown are excluded because they don't have FBS football, would they align themselves on school mission, academic standards, like-minded schools and football levels? (Is it just me or don't they look like Patriot League schools who've sold their soul for the $$$$$ of basketball.)
  • Would UMass, Richmond and URI chose their alignment on factors other than the level of basketball? UMass will most likely have to join a league with potentially worse geography than today's A-10. For example, aligned in some conference with Temple, Buffalo, Youngstown State, Akron, Kent, Ohio U., etc. or with Temple, JMU, and other southeastern schools. IMO, URI won't be able to tag along because they aren't willing/able to make the football commitment. Would that bring them to re-evaluate? Align with Maine, UNH, Albany and Stony Brook or with NEC schools because they prefer reduced scholarship football or drop football all together and go with schools that concentrate on hoop (see league three below).

It makes your head spin!! And unfortunately it's difficult to predict what is going to happen until the Big Ten shows their cards. I mean if they add one to get to 12 and are content with a football league championship game, then things fall differently than if they go for 16. All hell breaks loose with the latter scenario.

Personally, I think JMU wants to be in an association of large, growing Southeastern public institutions. With 68 teams in the Dance, there's room for another AQ, so I could see them aligning with Old Dominion, East Carolina, App State, GA Southern, GA State, Jacksonville State and Marshall in a new league. Delaware would need to decide if they want to be part of that or remain "Northeastern-Mid Atlantic" and be true to their academic standards. Personally, I don't think Delaware wants to be part of that group with JMU. UMass will want to go where Temple goes, but can they fund that?

The Patriot decision is important because it determines what Fordham, Holy Cross and maybe even Colgate do. For example, if the PL decides against scholarships, could a new association become Maine, UNH, Holy Cross, Albany, Colgate, Stony Brook, Fordham, Delaware, Towson and maybe William & Mary because of football? (N.B. -- The SoCon might be more inviting to W&M if App and GaSoU have moved on.)

Even if the Patriot remains intact, you could throw the AE and CAA into a mixer and re-align with football in mind. There are two AQs for basketball, maybe even have different alignments for other sports. Or you could see how even three divisions could shake out:

The following is a work in progress, but it is an effort to organize around more commonality than today. Please don't shoot the messenger since I admit that I've probably neglected a school. And that there are so many variables it is impossible to align every school appropriately.

League One: JMU, Liberty, Old Dominion, East Carolina, Charlotte, App State, GA Southern, GA State, Jacksonville State and Marshall (UMass, Temple and/or Buffalo????)

League Two: Maine, UNH, Albany, Stony Brook, Delaware, Towson, William & Mary (UMass and URI would fit right in here if they could live with it for basketball, alas they can't and will be associates for football). Do you go after 1-3 more football schools for all sport membership and to ease the travel for W&M (from Richmond, Monmouth, Delaware State, Morgan State, Norfolk State, Hampton, etc.)? Or do you go after three non football members of the AE to get to ten all sports members and live with football affiliates? Or some combination of football and non football schools.

When I was playing around with this when AGS had a perfect conference thread, I came up with some proposals, but never quite finished it because it is so friggin complicated! Especially when you organize with football AND basketball in mind.

League Three: BU, NU, Hartford, Hofstra, Rider, Drexel, George Washington, George Mason, VA Commonwealth, UMBC, Binghamton, Vermont

Parochial One (New Big East): St. Joseph’s, La Salle, Providence, Georgetown (Patriot football), St. John’s, Seton Hall, Siena, Villanova (Patriot football), Canisius, Niagara

Parochial Two (New MAAC): Loyola (MD), Mt. St. Mary’s (MD), Fairfield, Sacred Heart, Iona, Manhattan, St. Francis (NY), St. Peter’s, St. Bonaventure, *Marist

Patriot: *American (no football), Bucknell, Colgate, Duquesne, Fordham, Holy Cross, Lafayette, Lehigh, Monmouth, Army (FBS Football), Navy (FBS Football), *Villanova (football only)

NEC: Central CT, Quinnipiac, Bryant, Wagner, Farleigh Dickinson, Long Island, Robert Morris, St. Francis (PA)

SoCon: Charleston Southern, The Citadel, Davidson, Elon, Furman, Garner-Webb, Presbyterian, Samford, VMI, Western Carolina, Wofford
(Richmond and William & Mary ????????)

"Midwest Urban": Dayton, Xavier, Marquette, DePaul, Detroit-Mercy, Bradley, Butler, Evansville, Saint Louis
 
#43 · (Edited)
Some primary hopes if the explosion does occur:

Parochial Two (New MAAC): Loyola (MD), Mt. St. Mary’s (MD), Fairfield, Sacred Heart, Iona, Manhattan, St. Francis (NY), St. Peter’s, St. Bonaventure, *Marist

Patriot: *American (no football), Bucknell, Colgate, Duquesne, Fordham, Holy Cross, Lafayette, Lehigh, Monmouth, Army (FBS Football), Navy (FBS Football), *Villanova (football only)

NEC: Central CT, Quinnipiac, Bryant, Wagner, Farleigh Dickinson, Long Island, Robert Morris, St. Francis (PA)

"Midwest Urban": Dayton, Xavier, Marquette, DePaul, Detroit-Mercy, Bradley, Butler, Evansville, Saint Louis
Only five for football in the NEC, with Monmouth in the PL; CCSU also possible for full-ride FB?; possibly Marist football to the NEC rather than the MUC or PFL?
 
#34 ·
Standing O to UNH Alum, that's a hellacious amount of work and thought there. If the Big Ten adds just one, I agree this is all moot. Ideally for them, it's Notre Dame, but I doubt that happens. Say it's Pitt or Rutgers that goes, and the Big East will just pick someone like Memphis to fill that spot, simple enough

Also, speaking out of ignorance here, but I know that Villanova won the I-AA championship this year in football. Any chance they'd maybe want to upgrade to D-I to make themselves a more attractive candidate?
 
#37 ·
http://www.boston.com/sports/colleges/extras/colleges_blog/2010/04/notre_dame_not.html

From the Boston Globe. Notre Dame not joining the Big 10, haven't been in consideration for a bit.

In addition, Villanova doesn't have the attendance, interest, money, or standing to move to FBS. They're a basketball institution first, a football one second. So long as that relationship holds (and think St. John's or Georgetown if you want examples of schools similar in demographic and outlook), football will be in FCS.
 
#35 ·
William and Mary won't sever all its rivalries with other VA schools to be in a conference with SBU and Delaware.

I believe the schools are likely to split on demographics, since that's where their monetary trajectory will send them.

Thus, using the members of your model I see SBU in a league with other large, primary football institutions like Old Dominion, Charlotte, JMU, Ga State, U Mass, Temple, Delaware, and Buffalo (throw in Villanova as an affiliate to preserve their rivalry with Delaware and you're at 10 members. If you want 12 add in William & Mary and Richmond to lock down the VA market even further, though they don't match the demographic). This would be a very high end FCS league that could go FBS over the next decade or two as a group since -
1. Football is their #1 investment
2. Budgets (particularly football investments) already surpass many FBS schools
3. School population is 25K+ and stadiums are all expandable to the "official" FBS minimum (Stony Brook's can expand to ~20K if opposite sideline, corners, and end zone filled. That was the goal of the initial stadium design)
4. Endowments are all on an upward trajectory
5. You need a conference invite to move up, which means it's likely that the only way these schools can make that move would be if they latched onto an expansion as a block. Pile of issues around that, but with Temple and Buffalo as existing members it's not unrealistic to see the MAC expand or CUSA split to bring in these schools. You'd have the NYS upstate, NYC, Philly, MD/DC/VA, and NC Charlotte markets covered, giving you a chunk of marketing change.

For the record
1. While you're correct that Albany and Rhode Island (Towson might too? I know URI does but don't know of Towson's arrangement with the CAA) have reduced scholarships, SBU, UNH, U Mass, Maine, and Villanova all are at full rides. No possibility of Villanova entering the Patriot league for football. They'd affiliate with the group of larger schools.
 
#42 ·
I agree about the demographics and the monetary trajectory stuff, that's why I aligned JMU, ODU and the other large, public Southeastern schools. I have no idea how the final grouping will evolve because Youngstown State is kind of in limbo because the MAC won't accept them. Buffalo, Temple and UMass could easily fit within this group which I alluded to. But no way does either W&M or Richmond project to this type of group. Richmond is opening a brand new football stadium with a 9K capacity! They were forced by the city of Richmond to that capacity. W&M's stadium probably could be expanded, but it sits right on the edge of the colonial district of Williamsburg -- a significant expansion isn't happening. Plus, neither school is remotely close to 25K students.

People always said JMU would never leave their VA rivals, but with the school growing and their desire to continue to expand their football stadium, they have to move away from those VA rivals to grow their football program. William & Mary will have choices, a Patriot League with football scholarships (they almost joined at the inception of the Patriot); a SoCon with small privates, high quality academic schools with a couple of small publics; a public-private combo of FCS Football schools or alignment with the AE-CAA football schools remaining.

I didn't include Stony Brook with the group of larger publics because I figured they would be so geographically isolated and frankly I forgot about their grandiose aspirations. From the many discussions I've had with Delaware alums, I just don't see them aligning with the group I mentioned. But if you came up with a North Division of UMass, SBU, Buffalo, Temple, Delaware and say JMU or Youngstown State, then maybe it happens. The bottom line I see is that those schools better to be ready to make that decision when the explosion occurs. I'm not sure Buffalo isn't happier with the Midwest schools. I'm not sure UMass can pull the trigger and raise the funds. I'm not sure Delaware is ready to go that route -- they did approve a modest expansion of their stadium rather than a brand new one. Can Stony Brook fund the stadium expansion without much state assistance? Is Stony Brook ready to jump on board if the closest league mate is James Madison?

I just see that if the CAA split into two or three leagues, you'd have the group of Southeastern schools ready to align without the issues outlined about. You'd have built in OOC games with the old rivals. And you'd have your block to meet the NCAA regs. (Not sure they won't be blown asunder if the B10-16 explosion occurs.) Shoot, this new league could end up being the best home for West Virginia who probably wouldn't get invited to either the ACC nor the B10-16.

Going to be an interesting 12-18 months!!!!
 
#36 ·
Good stuff UNH_Alum! What will we do in the off-season once the dust finally settles? :(

Here's my predicted scenario for America East (I'm sure that many of you will disagree).......

First off........Boston U. is gone (somewhere). They really have no choice.......they have very little in common with the rest of the league members, have a brand new area to fill, and need to grow their revenue sources......that ain't happening in AE. I still think that they have a good shot at the new "Big East" basketball only set-up (a conference that would include Providence, Georgetown, St. John's and Villanova).

That leaves AE at 8 members.......I think that the league attempts to grow to 12.

Here is my predicted full-conference members......and the reasons why I see these new members joining:

Maine
UNH
Vermont
UMass
URI
Hartford

Albany
Binghamton
Stony Brook
Delaware
Towson
UMBC

It would have made more sense to do AE membership after analyzing the A-10 break-up and CAA break-up but here goes:

UMass - If the Big Ten goes to 16 members, UMass is left out in the cold due to the resulting domino effect:

Xavier, Dayton, GW & St. Joe's (BE Basketball), Fordham & Richmond (Patriot.....more on this later), (St. Louis (Valley) & Charlotte (new unnamed FBS Football.....more on this later too) will all be gone from the A-10.

That leaves:

UMass
URI
St. Bonaventure
Duquesne
LaSalle
Temple

Not only bare minimum for a conference, but also a very unattractive membership (for UMass) excluding URI and Temple. There is NOTHING to build upon here IF this scenario happened.

Next we must move onto the CAA to see why UMass will not be looking in that direction.......

I predict that the CAA will lose the following members:

ODU (ACC....I know, a very BIG stretch at this point.....or unnamed FBS Conference.....not so much of a stretch), JMU & Georgia State (unnamed FBS Conference), W&M (Patriot.....more on this later), and UNCW (Southern based basketball only conference).

That leaves the CAA with:

Northeastern (basketball)
Hofstra (basketball)
Drexel (basketball)
Delaware (football)
Towson (football)
George Mason (basketball)
VCU (basketball)

As you can see......only 2 public football schools remain. Both Delaware and Towson will be locked out of every conference expansion scenario that involves football. The same can be said for UMass......I just don't see them anywhere else unless they upgrade to FBS Football......and even then, they are NOT going to be invited to join the BCS Conferences. I don't see them upgrading to join the MAC which offers very little financial return and would be black hole for their Olympic Sports.

Now on to.......

URI - This is the easiest call IMO. They just don't have the resources that UConn or UMass does to make the needed investment to keep up with everyone else. There will be no other options available other than AE. I think that they will be a great fit in the league, and should enjoy great success and build some great new rivalries once the A-10 blues subside.



More on everyone else later.........
 
#40 ·
No doubt if the Big Ten goes to 16 and expands more to the East than West, then the Big East football conference is toast. If the Big 12 gets poached as well, then you can see C-USA splitting/imploding into a new SW Conference for B12 leftovers and C-USA west schools as well as a C-USA East leftover which could add Cincy, Louisville, ODU, JMU, etc.

What is clear that some schools will have to make difficult decisions and some schools will have decisions made for them. Schools that appear to have fallout they won't like are URI, West Virginia, Villanova, Georgetown, etc.

I figured the Big East would implode over football and that fallout would be significant. This Big Ten to 16 stuff has fallout that is mind boggling!!!!!
 
#44 ·
League Three: BU, NU, Hartford, Hofstra, Rider, Drexel, George Washington, George Mason, VA Commonwealth, UMBC, Binghamton, Vermont

This would be a fun hoops league.
 
#47 ·
You're correct UAalum72!! That's why MJ also said he hadn't put everything together with the NEC. That's the dilemma with all this re-alignment -- do so in such a way as to not kill any league. You've got to leave behind a viable NEC Football League or find homes for all of them. I ran into the same thing with the Big South Conference. Things fell in place better with OVC, MVC and Big Sky! And I've been trying things with 10 team leagues and 12 team leagues seeing which way left fewer dangling schools.

In some variations of my alignments, I've had Bryant in the Patriot, CCSU in "League Two", Wagner, SFPA, Robert Morris and Sacred Heart in the Pioneer, Duquesne in both the Patriot and Pioneer. I tried to migrate all the NEC football schools into another league, but I'm not sure that a suitable home (read: number of scholarships) can be found for all of them elsewhere. There probably is a niche for a reduced scholarship league.

Based on reading so many Patriot League posters on AGS, it's probably very unlikely that Monmouth, Marist, Duquesne or any other school in the Northeast not named Villanova would be admitted. Marist is most likely happy with the Pioneer since travel costs are significantly less than scholarship costs. That's why I left them in the MAAC. I don't really know how ambitious Monmouth and Duquesne are with football scholarships. Duquesne doesn't really help geographically, but Monmouth certainly fits the America East footprint.

It would certainly make things easier if certain schools could fit into the Patriot profile and if certain schools went full scholarship. Having Northeastern and Hofstra on the football side of the ledger would make this easier too.

Question UA'72, do you think Albany will go independent rather than re-up with the NEC? It would be real tough to give up that AQ!!! Maybe you guys can negotiate two year contracts????
 
#50 ·
I don't really know how ambitious Monmouth and Duquesne are with football scholarships. Duquesne doesn't really help geographically, but Monmouth certainly fits the America East footprint...
Question UA'72, do you think Albany will go independent rather than re-up with the NEC? It would be real tough to give up that AQ!!! Maybe you guys can negotiate two year contracts????
It's been stated in Duquesne's game notes that they had 18 scholarships during their first year in the NEC and were only going to build to 24 in the next three years, by which time the NEC would be allowing 40. So "ambitious" is not the word for the Dukes.

For 2011, it may depend on whether the NEC moves for another bump up to 57 (I think unlikely for the short term). Albany does have a game vs. Cincinnati coming up in a year or two. Not only is losing the AQ tough, but so is scheduling esp. home games with the speed of our stadium 'improvements'. OTOH we're only getting four home games as it is anyway even with a league.
 
#55 ·
To continue on with my scenarios and how it will effect remaining members of the CAA and others........


I think that there will be a hybrid A-10/CAA basketball only league:

NU
Boston U. (if they aren't invited to "new" Big East Basketball)
Hofstra
St. Bonaventure
Drexel
LaSalle
St. Joes (if they aren't invited to "new" Big East Basketball)
George Washington (if they aren't invited to "new" Big East Basketball)
George Mason
VCU

*Duquesne will look to the Midwest for a new home.


The new FBS Conference should look something like this:

Temple (A-10)
Cincinnati (if they don't get invited to the SEC)
JMU (CAA)
ODU (if they aren't invited to the ACC)
Marshall (Conference USA)
West Virginia (if they don't get invited to the ACC or SEC)
Charlotte (A-10)
East Carolina (Conference USA)
Louisville (if they don't get invited to the ACC)
Memphis (if they don't get invited to the SEC)
Georgia State (CAA)
Central Florida (Conference USA)
South Florida (if they don't get invited to the ACC)
Florida Atlantic (Sunbelt)

This conference will have only 12 members......all "ifs" will definitely be a part of this conference if they don't end up somewhere else.

Florida Atlantic would be the first one to go if all 14 were in play.

JMU would likely be next due to Marshall/West Virginia proximity and lack of history at FBS level.
 
#56 ·
Jeff, since it is a new league, why do you have a Sun Belt team included? And where do you see GA Southern, App State and JAX State going? No doubt they are going to be involved if something of this ilk happens! Personally, I think JMU, ODU, ECU, App and Charlotte being so relatively close will stick together. GA State has history with Charlotte and the obvious CAA connection with JMU and ODU. Once App is in, you've got to figure that GA Southern will be too, especially to have another GA team. Those SoCon ties bring in Marshall. Then with JAX State on the Eastern side of Bama and so close to Atlanta, they make sense. That was my train of thought.

But if C-USA ends up "inheriting" West Virginia, South Florida, Cincinnati and Louisville, then wresting ECU and Marshall away will be very difficult! Those five along with Memphis, Central Florida, Southern Miss and maybe Tulane isn't too shabby. Lot's of option for a twelve team league and will depend on how much the B12 is poached. Charlotte might prefer this set up as well.

So many dominoes!!!!!!! :laugh: And I'm more concerned with what happens in the Northeast!!!
 
Top