Some primary hopes if the explosion does occur:
- Football becomes an organizing factor in the fallout re-alignment.
- Schools like JMU, Delaware, UMass, Old Dominion, etc. make a decision they can and will live with for 20-30 years.
- The Patriot League makes a freaking decision on football scholarships so their members can make a decision.
- If 64 teams segregated themselves into super conferences to control the $$$$$$ and schools like Villanova and Georgetown are excluded because they don't have FBS football, would they align themselves on school mission, academic standards, like-minded schools and football levels? (Is it just me or don't they look like Patriot League schools who've sold their soul for the $$$$$ of basketball.)
- Would UMass, Richmond and URI chose their alignment on factors other than the level of basketball? UMass will most likely have to join a league with potentially worse geography than today's A-10. For example, aligned in some conference with Temple, Buffalo, Youngstown State, Akron, Kent, Ohio U., etc. or with Temple, JMU, and other southeastern schools. IMO, URI won't be able to tag along because they aren't willing/able to make the football commitment. Would that bring them to re-evaluate? Align with Maine, UNH, Albany and Stony Brook or with NEC schools because they prefer reduced scholarship football or drop football all together and go with schools that concentrate on hoop (see league three below).
It makes your head spin!! And unfortunately it's difficult to predict what is going to happen until the Big Ten shows their cards. I mean if they add one to get to 12 and are content with a football league championship game, then things fall differently than if they go for 16. All hell breaks loose with the latter scenario.
Personally, I think JMU wants to be in an association of large, growing Southeastern public institutions. With 68 teams in the Dance, there's room for another AQ, so I could see them aligning with Old Dominion, East Carolina, App State, GA Southern, GA State, Jacksonville State and Marshall in a new league. Delaware would need to decide if they want to be part of that or remain "Northeastern-Mid Atlantic" and be true to their academic standards. Personally, I don't think Delaware wants to be part of that group with JMU. UMass will want to go where Temple goes, but can they fund that?
The Patriot decision is important because it determines what Fordham, Holy Cross and maybe even Colgate do. For example, if the PL decides against scholarships, could a new association become Maine, UNH, Holy Cross, Albany, Colgate, Stony Brook, Fordham, Delaware, Towson and maybe William & Mary because of football? (N.B. -- The SoCon might be more inviting to W&M if App and GaSoU have moved on.)
Even if the Patriot remains intact, you could throw the AE and CAA into a mixer and re-align with football in mind. There are two AQs for basketball, maybe even have different alignments for other sports. Or you could see how even three divisions could shake out:
The following is a work in progress, but it is an effort to organize around more commonality than today. Please don't shoot the messenger since I admit that I've probably neglected a school. And that there are so many variables it is impossible to align every school appropriately.
League One: JMU, Liberty, Old Dominion, East Carolina, Charlotte, App State, GA Southern, GA State, Jacksonville State and Marshall (UMass, Temple and/or Buffalo????)
League Two: Maine, UNH, Albany, Stony Brook, Delaware, Towson, William & Mary (UMass and URI would fit right in here if they could live with it for basketball, alas they can't and will be associates for football). Do you go after 1-3 more football schools for all sport membership and to ease the travel for W&M (from Richmond, Monmouth, Delaware State, Morgan State, Norfolk State, Hampton, etc.)? Or do you go after three non football members of the AE to get to ten all sports members and live with football affiliates? Or some combination of football and non football schools.
When I was playing around with this when AGS had a perfect conference thread, I came up with some proposals, but never quite finished it because it is so friggin complicated! Especially when you organize with football
AND basketball in mind.
League Three: BU, NU, Hartford, Hofstra, Rider, Drexel, George Washington, George Mason, VA Commonwealth, UMBC, Binghamton, Vermont
Parochial One (New Big East): St. Joseph’s, La Salle, Providence, Georgetown (Patriot football), St. John’s, Seton Hall, Siena, Villanova (Patriot football), Canisius, Niagara
Parochial Two (New MAAC): Loyola (MD), Mt. St. Mary’s (MD), Fairfield, Sacred Heart, Iona, Manhattan, St. Francis (NY), St. Peter’s, St. Bonaventure, *Marist
Patriot: *American (no football), Bucknell, Colgate, Duquesne, Fordham, Holy Cross, Lafayette, Lehigh, Monmouth, Army (FBS Football), Navy (FBS Football), *Villanova (football only)
NEC: Central CT, Quinnipiac, Bryant, Wagner, Farleigh Dickinson, Long Island, Robert Morris, St. Francis (PA)
SoCon: Charleston Southern, The Citadel, Davidson, Elon, Furman, Garner-Webb, Presbyterian, Samford, VMI, Western Carolina, Wofford
(Richmond and William & Mary ????????)
"Midwest Urban": Dayton, Xavier, Marquette, DePaul, Detroit-Mercy, Bradley, Butler, Evansville, Saint Louis