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Do we have any indication, as the first half wraps up, who the 4th team out could be (13th place)? Also, if Rhody goes on a little run, as they showed how capable they are today, might they take someone else's place in Brooklyn? As much emphasis has been placed on the five first place teams and the shake-up on top of the standings, this is the best top down conference we have ever had! Makes me wonder, who will be left home?
 

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Do we have any indication, as the first half wraps up, who the 4th team out could be (13th place)? Also, if Rhody goes on a little run, as they showed how capable they are today, might they take someone else's place in Brooklyn? As much emphasis has been placed on the five first place teams and the shake-up on top of the standings, this is the best top down conference we have ever had! Makes me wonder, who will be left home?
This league is brutal from top to bottom. Just sick competition every night.
 

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Do we have any indication, as the first half wraps up, who the 4th team out could be (13th place)? Also, if Rhody goes on a little run, as they showed how capable they are today, might they take someone else's place in Brooklyn? As much emphasis has been placed on the five first place teams and the shake-up on top of the standings, this is the best top down conference we have ever had! Makes me wonder, who will be left home?
Depending on how Dayton responds to the depantsing the Flyers received against SLU, I see no reason why it couldn't be us. I think we'll regroup well enough to put together a decent home record, but 13th place is sadly not at all out of the question.
 

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Depending on how Dayton responds to the depantsing the Flyers received against SLU, I see no reason why it couldn't be us. I think we'll regroup well enough to put together a decent home record, but 13th place is sadly not at all out of the question.
What's the deal with Josh Benson? He had a decent game today, even though it was ugly in favor of the Bills.
 

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The mostly unconsidered factor right now is that the teams sitting outside right now still feel that they will knock some unsuspecting pretender off and force them to stay home to practice for next season. URI looks like they could knock off some formiddable opponent. Fordham has not been an easy out at home despite their being puke worthy on the road at times. Duquesne cannot be ignored and if they are they will knock you. I do not think that 14-16 is as guaranteed as some think, though time is running out.
 

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16. Duquesne
15. Fordham
14. URI
13.???

It's a sad situation... One decent team isn't going to make it to Brooklyn. I thought it would be GW, but after their recent run I think most people believe it will be Bona taking the 13th spot. It is, unfortunately, very likely that will happen.Bona has an easier season after Butler on Wednesday. I still believe we can finish 8-8 and that should secure us a spot in Brooklyn.
 

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16. Duquesne
15. Fordham
14. URI
13.???

It's a sad situation... One decent team isn't going to make it to Brooklyn. I thought it would be GW, but after their recent run I think most people believe it will be Bona taking the 13th spot. It is, unfortunately, very likely that will happen.Bona has an easier season after Butler on Wednesday. I still believe we can finish 8-8 and that should secure us a spot in Brooklyn.
True, but right now with two wins and a head to head victory, I think FU is ahead of URI.
 

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I still believe we can finish 8-8 and that should secure us a spot in Brooklyn.
Yes, while not a statistical certainty, I will go out on a limb and predict at least four out of the 16 teams will finish the season with a losing conference record. :yes:
 

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16. Duquesne
15. Fordham
14. URI
13.???

It's a sad situation... One decent team isn't going to make it to Brooklyn. I thought it would be GW, but after their recent run I think most people believe it will be Bona taking the 13th spot. It is, unfortunately, very likely that will happen.Bona has an easier season after Butler on Wednesday. I still believe we can finish 8-8 and that should secure us a spot in Brooklyn.
Christ, I would hope .500 made it to BK. After reading this, I'm still not sure if you think Bona will finish 13th or .500.
 

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Christ, I would hope .500 made it to BK. After reading this, I'm still not sure if you think Bona will finish 13th or .500.
Let me say this... I think whichever team is in 13th at the end of the season will have a record no worse than 7-9. 8-8 should be a lock, but it's possible it wouldn't be enough for some teams.
 

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As expected, Pomeroy and rpiforecast project a log jam between 9-7 and 7-9 (spots 5-13).

Pomeroy:
Spots 1-4: VCU, Saint Louis, Butler, La Salle
3 teams at 9-7
5 teams at 8-8
Bonas at 7-9 in 13th (rated 109)
URI 5-11
FU 3-13
Duquesne 2-14.

rpiforecast:
1-4: VCU, St. Louis, Butler, La Salle
3 at 9-7
4 at 8-8
Dayton and Bona tied for 12th at 7-9, with rpi's at 106 and 120, respectively.

13th place and left home the last 4 years had the following ratings:
2012: URI - Pomeroy 202, rpi 256
2011: Charlotte - 213, 225
2010: La Salle - 162, 173
2009: GW - 185, 204

It is likely that a highly competitive, potentially top 100 team, will be left home watching on the Dunga Network this year. Bona, Dayton, or a long list of others currently projected in that 8-8 range.
 

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Wouldn't take much for an 8-8 team to be in 13th place if things go about like rpiforecast.com predicts. Given the advantage most of the teams in the middle get at home, and how similar many of these teams are in terms of quality, it's likely to end up being a logjam. Unbalanced schedules will likely come into play, as some teams get more home games with other teams in the middle, so they may hold either tiebreaks or just win a game or two more as a result.
 

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Dayton (2-5) has the toughest remaining schedule of any of the teams with only 2-3 wins. They'd have to be the favorite to finish at #13.

02-06 St. Joseph's 13-7 (4-3)
02-09 Temple 14-7 (3-4) 49
02-13 at Rhode Island 6-14 (1-6)
02-16 Xavier 12-9 (5-3)
02-23 at Massachusetts 14-6 (4-3)
02-27 at Charlotte 17-4 (5-2)
03-02 Richmond 14-9 (4-4)
03-06 St. Bonaventure 10-10 (3-4)
03-09 at Geo. Washington 10-10 (4-3)

GW has a tough schedule too but they already have 4 conference wins. That game on 03-09 could be meaningful.
 

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GW has a tough slate as well, so does Richmond, of the 4-win teams. RPI Forecast is predicting wins at home vs. Butler and SLU and a loss at Duquesne. I'll assume that the Duquesne and Butler results switch. GW could be 6-5 going into a really tough last 5 games.

GW:
02-06 at Duquesne 7-13 (0-6) 201 66-67 L - Scouting
02-09 Butler 16-4 (4-2) 12 69-68 W - Scouting
02-16 at VA Common 17-5 (5-2) 42 62-83 L - Scouting
02-20 Fordham 6-15 (2-4) 218 75-57 W - Scouting
02-23 at St. Joseph's 12-7 (3-3) 86 63-75 L - Scouting
02-27 at Richmond 13-9 (3-4) 77 65-76 L - Scouting
03-02 Saint Louis 15-5 (4-2) 55 67-64 W - Scouting
03-06 at La Salle 14-6 (4-3) 31 62-77 L - Scouting
03-09 Dayton 12-8 (2-4) 119 72-69 W - Scouting


UR:
02-09 Saint Louis 15-5 (4-2) 55 68-64 W - Scouting
02-13 at St. Joseph's 12-7 (3-3) 86 67-75 L - Scouting
02-16 St. Bona 9-10 (2-4) 127 77-64 W - Scouting
02-23 at Fordham 6-15 (2-4) 218 73-68 W - Scouting
02-27 Geo. Wash 10-9 (4-2) 117 76-65 W - Scouting
03-02 at Dayton 12-8 (2-4) 119 66-74 L - Scouting
03-06 at VA Common 17-5 (5-2) 42 64-79 L - Scouting
03-09 Duquesne 7-13 (0-6) 201 79-61 W - Scouting
 
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