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Originally posted by <b>PauloCatarino</b>!


Right on the money.
Now you see why i hated the Magic Johnson´s comparisons...
Stats-wise, i don't think "the SF" LBJ will ever get to the Larry Bird´s status... LBJ could be great... but he has a hard time becoming "one of the greatests"... SF apears to be the toughest place to get recognition...
Well he played Shooting Guard and Point Guard last year. And he'll probably play shooting guard this year too. If the distinction is really that important for you.

If he played the 3, he's far quicker than any other 3 in the game. And still bigger than most 3's. You can't really guard him with a 3.

Really once he figures out his post game, how are you going to guard him? If you double him, he will just pull you out and then pick you apart with the pass. If you leave single coverage on him, he's going to roll right over your 1, 2, 3, and some of your 4's. And if the 4 is big enough to stand up to him, most likely he'll be too slow, and Lebron will take him outside away from the basket.

After the post game, then he's just got to add the consistent J, and you are talking about an unstoppable offensive force.

I don't see how you can not see it.
 

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Originally posted by <b>futuristxen</b>!


Well he played Shooting Guard and Point Guard last year. And he'll probably play shooting guard this year too. If the distinction is really that important for you.

If he played the 3, he's far quicker than any other 3 in the game. And still bigger than most 3's. You can't really guard him with a 3.

Really once he figures out his post game, how are you going to guard him? If you double him, he will just pull you out and then pick you apart with the pass. If you leave single coverage on him, he's going to roll right over your 1, 2, 3, and some of your 4's. And if the 4 is big enough to stand up to him, most likely he'll be too slow, and Lebron will take him outside away from the basket.

After the post game, then he's just got to add the consistent J, and you are talking about an unstoppable offensive force.

I don't see how you can not see it.
And this is still all based on potential. Odom was supposed to be the next great player after going 17-8-4 his rookie season. Four seasons later he's a better defender and a better rebounder, and that's about it. I think it's pretty obvious Odom won't pass the likes of Bird, and I think it's pretty obvious that LeBron isn't necessarily the next greatest player in this league.
 

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Originally posted by <b>EHL</b>!
And this is still all based on potential. Odom was supposed to be the next great player after going 17-8-4 his rookie season. Four seasons later he's a better defender and a better rebounder, and that's about it. I think it's pretty obvious Odom won't pass the likes of Bird, and I think it's pretty obvious that LeBron isn't necessarily the next greatest player in this league.
Yeah, I've made that mistake before. I'm excited and eager to watch Lebrons development, and I'm as big of a fan of the guy as anyone, but I'm saving my expectations. I wont make the same mistake I did with Odom, because it was disappointing to watch him fail to meet expectations year after year.
 

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Odom was certainly expected to be good, but no way was the hype on him even as close to what Lebron had to contend with.

Lebron had an amazing rookie campaign, he at the very least met the hype. His profesionalism and composure is what really impressed me. Having the kind of leadership skills he has at 19 years old is special. I'm excited to see what he does this season.
 

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Odom was very immature and has dealt with a trunkfull of personal problems. These slowed/halted his development over stretches of his career. He finally took a step forward, IMO, last year. But he shows no sign, really, of being a dominant player with the ball in his hands.

Just a point here that I may not have made clear. You guys keep talking about 17 and 18 ppg like its almost the same as 21ppg.

Now I agree that to a large extent the 20ppg number IS artificial. In that 19.7ppg is essentially 20ppg, but at 19.7 you don't actually get invited to join the club. But if you look at frequency of 21ppg scorers in today's game, and compare it to 17 or 18ppg scorers, there really is a substantial difference.

Last year 43 players scored 17ppg or more. Not really an elite club. Only 15 were at 21ppg.

Lets look at it another way. A player's job is scoring, and most teams have 2 primary scorers.

The top 58 players in the NBA in ppg AVERAGED 18.4 ppg. So an 18ppg scorer is a BELOW AVERAGE for a primary scorer. Pretty fair for a #2 option.

Last year, 20.9ppg makes Lebron the primary scorer on 17 of the 29 NBA teams. As a rookie, right out of high school.
 

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Originally posted by <b>EHL</b>!


Well then your definition of “taking it to the basket” is quite different from most people's definition. When people say a player takes it to the basket, they almost always mean that that player is getting within a few feet of the rim for a layup, floater, etc. People who take it to the basket are guys like Tmac or Kobe. Cassell may “take it to the basket” in its most literal sense, but he’s hardly ever going to actually get to and under the basket and score, as seen by the 89% stat I referenced. So if that other definition is what you were going by, then I can understand where you’re coming from. Still, Cassell is a jump shooter far more than he is a player that attacks the basket. Any slashing, attacking, or running to the hoop by Cassell is immediately followed up by jump shot far more than a layup or chippie shot.
That's not the issue here. Of course Cassell is a jump shooter. Your original premise was that Cassell doesn't take it to the basket, that he can't create his own shot, which is absolute bunk. He obviously takes a lot of jumpers, but is certainly a major threat off the dribble.



Um, you need to look at your own link a bit more closely, it says 6 to 11 feet. You should also probably look further down on that same page you linked, where it says Cassell attempted 309 18 feet to 3-point line shots, versus 115 6-11 feet shots. Your own link actually proves my point better than my original link did.
He's the #1 6-11 foot shooter in the game. Those are all shots he created for himself, by getting to the basket. Notice how there are 1 or 2 other PG's on the list. For a guy who can't dunk, his number of close range shots is probably pretty high.
 

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Originally posted by <b>PauloCatarino</b>!


Right on the money.
Now you see why i hated the Magic Johnson´s comparisons...
Stats-wise, i don't think "the SF" LBJ will ever get to the Larry Bird´s status... LBJ could be great... but he has a hard time becoming "one of the greatests"... SF apears to be the toughest place to get recognition...
I don't think Magic is too far off, actually. He certainly has a bit of Magic's court vision/size combo. I just think it's a bit more unrealistic to have a 6'9 PG in today's up-and-down, ultra-athletic game. LeBron will always be more than just a simple small forward, so I don't think just comparing him to Bird is fair. And just because he doesn't get to X number of championships like Bird did doesn't mean he won't end up as one of the all-time greats.
 

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Originally posted by <b>blabla97</b>!


That's not the issue here. Of course Cassell is a jump shooter. Your original premise was that Cassell doesn't take it to the basket, that he can't create his own shot, which is absolute bunk. He obviously takes a lot of jumpers, but is certainly a major threat off the dribble.
No no, my original premise was that Cassell doesn't take it to the basket often. And he doesn't, as clearly evidenced by the amount of 6-11 footers he takes (115) versus the amount of 18 footers and out he takes (309). You said he takes it to the basket regularly, on the previous page, and that doesn't make sense based on the numbers I just referenced.

And no, he's just not a major threat off the dribble. Cassell has always been and will continue to be a great pick and roll PG with a great jump shot from virtually anywhere on the floor.

He's the #1 6-11 foot shooter in the game. Those are all shots he created for himself, by getting to the basket.
Creating a shot isn't normally defined as coming off a screen and shooting the ball. That's where a some of Cassell's 6-11 footers came from. And as I said before, the guy only took 115 6-11 footers last season, that's not a lot.

Notice how there are 1 or 2 other PG's on the list. For a guy who can't dunk, his number of close range shots is probably pretty high.
He's still not getting inside, in the lane, and actually scoring. His moves to the basket consistently fall short of getting close to the rim compared to what other guards are able to do.
 

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Originally posted by <b>blabla97</b>!


I don't think Magic is too far off, actually. He certainly has a bit of Magic's court vision/size combo. I just think it's a bit more unrealistic to have a 6'9 PG in today's up-and-down, ultra-athletic game. LeBron will always be more than just a simple small forward, so I don't think just comparing him to Bird is fair. And just because he doesn't get to X number of championships like Bird did doesn't mean he won't end up as one of the all-time greats.
True, true...
But in the end, a players "greatness" will be always measured by 2 criterias(sp?): stats and rings.
If LBJ´s set on the SF position (and no he won't be the prototype SF, like you said) Bird is his competition at the spot. He was the original point-forward. He also provided the stats and the rings.

So, for LBJ to be consider one of the greatest ever he has a really hard road to travel (although he has a loooong career ahead)...
In today´s NBA (and probably during his career), the SF LBJ will have a hard time putting up monster stats. Although a 20/6/6 is pretty good for today´s standards, IMHO he will never average the triple-double he once said. I don´t believe he will ever challenge Wilt´s, Jordan´s statistical prowesses...

Bottom line: LeBron James must win to achieve the kind of recognition we are talking about. And Cleveland won´t win in the next few years, i gather... It will take time to put up a team around him...
 

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How many players have ever led the league in scoring AND assists?

This is the sort of thing that LBJ could be capable of, as his abilities develop.

LBJ - 20.9 5.5 5.9 1.67 0.73
KG -- 10.4 6.3 1.8 1.08 1.64
Kobe- 7.6 1.9 1.3 0.69 0.32
TMac- 7.0 4.2 1.5 0.77 0.95

I think LBJ will score 30ppg and log 9 apg in about 4-5 years. I don't think he will ever get 9rpg.

Tmac reached his peak in 5 years. It took Kobe 7. KG got very close to peak in 5 years, and then took a step forward again in his 8th year.

His second season will tell us quite a bit. It is possible that he will develop less than these comparables, and more like Oscar Robertson, who peaked almost immediately. Even so, Oscar was 22 as a rookie. LBJ will not peak before 22.
 

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I was just thinking about Oscar Roberstson's rebounding, and discovered the following.

When he had his 10.1 rpg season as a rookie GUARD, it was an amazing feat.

But take it in perspective.

He was 14th in the league in rebounding - in an EIGHT team league.

He did not lead his team in rebounds, and 2 other players on his own team were just behind him, with 8.5rpg each.

He got just one-third of the rebounds of the league leader that season. (some guy named Wilt, with Bill R right behind...)

LBJ's rebounding is not his forte, and he is not as good as Oscar was. BUT

He was 65th in rebounds in a 29 team league. Not that different that 14th in 8.

He got 38% of the number of rebounds of the league leader, >33%.

He finished 3rd on his team with no-one close behind, not 2nd with 2 guys close behind.

My point, really, is that Oscar's 10.1 taken in context is not nearly as remarkable as it looks.
 

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Thanks futuristxen .

All the Bill James Abstracts I read 20 years ago have come back in my mind, and I'm just having fun with all the statistical info available now.
 

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Hmmm... I found LBJ´s rookie season somewhat underachieving...

Don´t get me wrong: i think he is already an exciting player and has all the potential to become one of the Top-5 players in a couple of years...

But his hype (wich wasn´t really his doing) was so great that i sincerely expected more.

Disregarding the fact that he was, what, 18? last season and coming straight from high school, i assumed he would do better.

In fact, averaging 39.5mpg in the season and getting all the touches in offense (mainly after the Davis trade), he didn´t do much more than Carmelo (only one year older). On the other hand, his .417FG% is simply horrible.

"But he is just a kid", you´d say, and rightfully so.
But this kid was MADE to be the Next Michael Jordan; the "Choosen1", the 100mill shoe deal, etc., etc...

So, taken that into account, i say he dind´t live up to the hype in his rookie season .
But only because the hype was sooooo out of hand...
i actually thought he was going to average around 20 a game, but the 6 and 6 was the thing that really stands out to me about his rookie year, his numbers are absolutely incredible
Hmmm... I found LBJ´s rookie season somewhat underachieving...

Don´t get me wrong: i think he is already an exciting player and has all the potential to become one of the Top-5 players in a couple of years...

But his hype (wich wasn´t really his doing) was so great that i sincerely expected more.

Disregarding the fact that he was, what, 18? last season and coming straight from high school, i assumed he would do better.

In fact, averaging 39.5mpg in the season and getting all the touches in offense (mainly after the Davis trade), he didn´t do much more than Carmelo (only one year older). On the other hand, his .417FG% is simply horrible.

"But he is just a kid", you´d say, and rightfully so.
But this kid was MADE to be the Next Michael Jordan; the "Choosen1", the 100mill shoe deal, etc., etc...

So, taken that into account, i say he dind´t live up to the hype in his rookie season .
But only because the hype was sooooo out of hand...
Hmmm.... What do you think now in 2021 about what you wrote here in 2004?
 
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