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From Crapzano's blog, here are the ping pong balls you get if you finish with the 4th, 5th or 6th worst record in the league (Blazers currently sixth, but will probably end up somewhere 4-6).

Take a look at the differences between finishing with the sixth-worst and the fourth-worst record. There are 1,000 possible combinations. Here are the number of ping-pong combinations the teams with the worst records will have:

TEAM
Atlanta----------250
Charlotte-------200
New Orleans--157
Utah-------------105
Golden State--104
Portland---------64
Seventh worst--37
Huge drop-off in lottery balls if you fall from fifth to sixth. Pretty incredible. Difference between fourth and fifth is negligible. Obviously, the best case scenario would be to finish w/ the fifth worst record.

-Pop
 

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SodaPopinski said:
From Crapzano's blog, here are the ping pong balls you get if you finish with the 4th, 5th or 6th worst record in the league (Blazers currently sixth, but will probably end up somewhere 4-6).

Huge drop-off in lottery balls if you fall from fifth to sixth. Pretty incredible. Difference between fourth and fifth is negligible. Obviously, the best case scenario would be to finish w/ the fifth worst record.-Pop
Because GS is playing so much better since the acquisition of Baron Davis, they will most probably out-play us down the stretch. We're almost tied with them now. Utah, on the other hand, having lost Kirilenko, will probably lose as many as we do.

I think we end up in 5th. But, hoping for 4th.

The other thing to look at is the NEEDS of the teams finishing ahead of us. ATL needs everything sans SG (lets assume Williams is taken). CHA needs everything sans PF (lets assume Bogut is taken). NO needs PF & C's (lets assume Marty is taken). Utah needs playmakers (assume a PG is taken).

We are primed for NOT getting what we want position-wise. Look for us to trade down or out.
 

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I think those numbers are wrong. In that they are based on 2004's numbers, which had to deal with a tie between the Clippers and the Hawks, who tied for the fourth-worst record.

While there might be ties again this year, the normal distribution should be much more gradual: less difference between 3 and 4 and between 5 and 6, but more between 4 and 5.

The distribution should look more like this:

1: 250
2: 200
3: 157
4: 120
5: 89
6: 64
7: 44
8: 29
...

(Note that Philly and Toronto tied last year for the 7th-worst record, so the combos for the 7th spot last year were too low.)

Ed O.
 

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RedHot&Rolling said:
Because GS is playing so much better since the acquisition of Baron Davis, they will most probably out-play us down the stretch. We're almost tied with them now. Utah, on the other hand, having lost Kirilenko, will probably lose as many as we do.

I think we end up in 5th. But, hoping for 4th.

The other thing to look at is the NEEDS of the teams finishing ahead of us. ATL needs everything sans SG (lets assume Williams is taken). CHA needs everything sans PF (lets assume Bogut is taken). NO needs PF & C's (lets assume Marty is taken). Utah needs playmakers (assume a PG is taken).

We are primed for NOT getting what we want position-wise. Look for us to trade down or out.
If the draft goes planned like that, it looks like we would be left with Paul or Deron, whomever Utah doesn't pick. :curse: I would just trade down to get Taft or trade up into the top 2. The draft seems really weak value wise from #5-#10 it seems like. We like a lot of guys, but in that range, it'd be too high to pick them up.
 

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MAS RipCity said:
If the draft goes planned like that, it looks like we would be left with Paul or Deron, whomever Utah doesn't pick. :curse: I would just trade down to get Taft or trade up into the top 2. The draft seems really weak value wise from #5-#10 it seems like. We like a lot of guys, but in that range, it'd be too high to pick them up.
I agree with you. Seems better to sign a veteran PG for minimum $$ than have another young PG backing up our young PG. Duh!

Hopefully, combining the #5 Pick and Zach or NVE for ???????
 

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We technically could get lucky and get the #1 overall pick at any of these positions. And since I've never been a proponent of losing to improve draft position anyway, I hope the boys continue to play their hardest... and let the ping-pong balls fall where they may. If we don't get that #1 pick (and Bogut, most likely) it will be interesting to see what Nash does with whatever pick we draw. I'm hoping for lemonade from lemons.

PBF
 

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RedHot&Rolling said:
I agree with you. Seems better to sign a veteran PG for minimum $$ than have another young PG backing up our young PG. Duh!

Hopefully, combining the #5 Pick and Zach or NVE for ???????
I think combining #5 and Zach is too much for anyone in the draft, now #5 and Nick on the other hand would be good to see what we could get.
 

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MAS RipCity said:
I think combining #5 and Zach is too much for anyone in the draft, now #5 and Nick on the other hand would be good to see what we could get.
What about Zach and a lower pick? And with that, anyone up on which picks the Blazers actually have for this coming draft, ping-pong balls aside?
 

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I don't think at this point and time we should deal Zach for a draft pick. I think a higher pick can be hand at a cheaper value. Since it has became almost a formality that Rahim is gone, we need an anchor on the offensive end like Randolph. We may not make the playoffs next year, but if we stay healthy we will be in there to the end. I think we just need to add a nice vetern backup point guard to add some leadership with our young guys. We should look into finding a vet to play the backup SG role as well,because I am not sure if Monia is ready right away to contribute.
 

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MAS RipCity said:
I don't think at this point and time we should deal Zach for a draft pick. I think a higher pick can be hand at a cheaper value. Since it has became almost a formality that Rahim is gone, we need an anchor on the offensive end like Randolph. We may not make the playoffs next year, but if we stay healthy we will be in there to the end. I think we just need to add a nice vetern backup point guard to add some leadership with our young guys. We should look into finding a vet to play the backup SG role as well,because I am not sure if Monia is ready right away to contribute.
You're making assumptions I'm not ready to make regarding Rahim. That said, I agree that there'd have to be quite a transformation for him to want to stay. Still, the Suns and Sonics managed it. If the Blazer brass can convince him both that Zach is leaving (for something of real value) and that they're really going to push this thing now, I'd do it -- I just think SAR is a better fit for this team than Zach is.

Also, I'd say we should be looking into finding a vet to play the STARTING 2 role (even someone like Kittles) because I think DA's finished and I'm not looking foward to a season of Frahm, Outlaw, and Monya stuggling to hold it together.

You're right, though -- if the goal is to keep SAR, trading Z-bo for anyone short of a Joe Johnson or Paul Pierce sort would be pretty important.
 
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