[e_blazer1]

I ran across this information regarding probabilities for the NBA draft:

This is the link to the site that I got that chart from:

Draft Probabilties Link

It seems to me that the biggest advantage offered by finishing with a worse record than Utah would be the increased odds of getting a top 3 pick. Given that Utah is most in need of a PG and the Blazers already have one, if the teams end up with their own picks at 4 & 5, it's not likely that they'd be competing for the same player so order doesn't matter anyway.

 

[HOWIE]

Yes, but the difference between the 5th & 4th pick gets Portland more ping pong balls for the possible first pick. Could you deal with that kind of pressure not to screw up with that pick? I mean in the past Portland has picked in the late teens and has done very good in drafting talent, but not having a player fall to you in the draft and having nothing to blame it on, but your own scouting? No one picking before you and you could have any player on the board?

Talk about a short draft day party, with the first pick in the 2005 NBA Draft, the Portland Trailblazers pick..........

 

[chris_in_pdx]

Talk about a short draft day party, with the first pick in the 2005 NBA Draft, the Portland Trailblazers pick..........

I'll take it. Talk about a bash. The Rose Garden will be jam packed.

 

[Utherhimo]

not counting on a deal or two happening after!

 

[Mr. Chuck Taylor]

The real benefit of "passing" utah in the standings is not the slightly increased chance of landing a top 3 pick, it is that if the chips fall where they are supposed to, we will end up with the fourth pick instead of the fifth - i.e., more trade bait.

-Mr. Chuck Taylor

 

[gambitnut]

Great find! Thanks! I had wondered how many more ping pong balls we would get if we got the fourth spot. The biggest perks, having more ping pong balls and having better trade bait, have already been mentioned, but I also like being ahead of one extra team. We might expect Utah to take a PG, but they could always decide that there's another player they can't pass up on, and I'd rather they do that after we pick than before.

 

[Ed O]

These odds are for the 2004 lottery, which only had 13 teams. It's close, of course, but not entirely accurate.

Ed O.

 

[Schilly]

HOWIE don't discount the 4th pick in the 2nd round.....Turiaf could be there.

 

[e_blazer1]

These odds are for the 2004 lottery, which only had 13 teams. It's close, of course, but not entirely accurate.

Ed O.

Actually, the table shown is the general probability table from last year. You're right that the probabilities need to be revised in order to reflect that there are now 14 teams in the lotter. The 2004 draft probabilities are here:

2004 odds

Of course, due to ties, the actual odds can vary from the general probability table. In the event of tied records, the tied teams split the difference on the number of combinations that they're assigned.

 

[Ed O]

Actually, the table shown is the general probability table from last year.

That's what I said.

Ed O.

 

[FeloniusThunk]

I sure hope this is the kind of draft where the top picks turn out to be like Lebron, Carmelo, and Dwyane, rather than Kenyon, Stromile, and Darius.

 

[BlazerFanFoLife]

You mean Lebron Darko Mello Wade Bosh? 4/5 which will be very good players in the future. The verdict is still out on Darko. Now the blazers just have to pick one of the right 4 and not the dark horse 1.