The thing is, people, there are only 8 spots in the playoffs per conference. There are 15 teams in the East--8 of them will make the playoffs, which means 7 of them won't.
Now there is no reason to believe that the following teams will NOT make the playoffs again:
1 Nets (everybody comes back)
2 Pistons (everybody is back, Billups is added)
3 Celtics (Rodney Rogers is not the reason this team was good)
4 Hornets (either Baron Davis stays or is traded in a three-way for Andre Miller)
Every other team has question marks:
Magic--Grant Hill won't be close to 100%, the team could regress
76ers--David Stern will suspend Iverson at least 20 games
Raptors--adding Lindsay Hunter is not progress, people
Pacers--terrible coach
Bucks--should bounce back, but you never know
Heat--should bounce back, too, but again, you never know
Knicks--McDyess will never be the same player, will he?
Wiz--no reason to believe that MJ will be 100%
Hawks--no reason to believe Ratliff will ever stay healthy
Bulls--won't improve by 15 wins, people
Cavs--will only get worse
The thing is, there are people around here who are under the impression that EVERY SINGLE ONE of these teams--with the exception of the Cavs--will "contend for a playoff spot"! PEOPLE! Fourteen teams are not going to "contend for a playoff spot"! It won't happen!
Just to prove my point, take a look at what I've come up with here. The Eastern Conference has had 15 teams for seven years now, so I have gone back and looked at the final standings for each one of these seasons. For the lockout-shortened '98-'99 season, I projected what the team's win total would've been over an 82-game season (based on their winning percentage). What you see here is the AVERAGE win-loss record for the 9th through 15th place teams during this period.
Average 9th place team's record: 41-41
Average 10th place team's record: 37-45
Average 11th place team's record: 34-48
Average 12th place team's record: 31-51
Average 13th place team's record: 27-55
Average 14th place team's record: 24-58
Average 15th place team's record: 16-66
SO! As you can see, teams that finish 13th in the East are NOT contenders--if you go 27-55, YOU ARE NOT A CONTENDER. Teams that finish 12th in the East are NOT contenders--if you go 31-51, YOU ARE NOT A CONTENDER. Teams that finish 11th in the East are NOT contenders--if you go 34-48, YOU ARE NOT A CONTENDER. I suppose one could argue that a 37-45 team is a contender--in many instances, the tenth place team came pretty close to making the playoffs (41-41 in '97-'98, 39-43 in '96-'97, 39-43 again in '95-'96--these years were obviously the hey day period for the Eastern Conference).
The point here is that only ten teams in the East can expect to "contend for a playoff spot" next year or any year. Below is one man's guess at what the Eastern Conference standings might look like next season--and I have included the average win-loss total next to those teams who fail to make the playoffs (just to drive home my point):
1 Nets
2 Hornets
3 Pistons
4 Celtics
5 Bucks
6 Magic
7 76ers
8 Heat
-----
9 Raptors 41-41
10 Pacers 37-45
11 Hawks 34-48
12 Bulls 31-51
13 Knicks 27-55
14 Wizards 24-58
15 Cavs 16-66
NOW! Feel free to mix and match who finishes where--but the bottom line here is that A 27-55 TEAM IS NOT A PLAYOFF CONTENDER! If you finish 13th in the East, YOU ARE GOING TO FINISH ABOUT 27-55! The most wins that the 13th best team in the East ever won was in '97-'98, when the #13 team somehow managed to go 36-46. The next-best win-loss total during this 7-year period for a #13 team? 30-52.
Go ahead, people--make your predictions, tell us how you think the East will shape up next season. Rank the teams 1-15. But make sure you put the above average win-loss totals next to those teams.
Wiz fans! YOUR TEAM WILL NOT CONTEND FOR A PLAYOFF SPOT NEXT SEASON!
Knicks fans! YOUR TEAM WILL NOT CONTEND FOR A PLAYOFF SPOT NEXT SEASON!
Bulls fans! YOUR TEAM WILL NOT CONTEND FOR A PLAYOFF SPOT NEXT SEASON!
Hawks fans! YOUR TEAM WILL NOT CONTEND FOR A PLAYOFF SPOT NEXT SEASON!
And, fans of the Wiz, Knicks, Bulls, and Hawks--if you DO think your team will "contend" next season, well, you're going to have to tell us which of the ten teams that figure to be better than you (i.e., the ten teams that I have ranked ahead of you in my projected Eastern Conference standings) will be WORSE than you! If you cannot name AT LEAST FIVE TEAMS who will be WORSE than you next season, YOUR TEAM WILL NOT BE CONTEND FOR A PLAYOFF SPOT! Period!
So there!
Now there is no reason to believe that the following teams will NOT make the playoffs again:
1 Nets (everybody comes back)
2 Pistons (everybody is back, Billups is added)
3 Celtics (Rodney Rogers is not the reason this team was good)
4 Hornets (either Baron Davis stays or is traded in a three-way for Andre Miller)
Every other team has question marks:
Magic--Grant Hill won't be close to 100%, the team could regress
76ers--David Stern will suspend Iverson at least 20 games
Raptors--adding Lindsay Hunter is not progress, people
Pacers--terrible coach
Bucks--should bounce back, but you never know
Heat--should bounce back, too, but again, you never know
Knicks--McDyess will never be the same player, will he?
Wiz--no reason to believe that MJ will be 100%
Hawks--no reason to believe Ratliff will ever stay healthy
Bulls--won't improve by 15 wins, people
Cavs--will only get worse
The thing is, there are people around here who are under the impression that EVERY SINGLE ONE of these teams--with the exception of the Cavs--will "contend for a playoff spot"! PEOPLE! Fourteen teams are not going to "contend for a playoff spot"! It won't happen!
Just to prove my point, take a look at what I've come up with here. The Eastern Conference has had 15 teams for seven years now, so I have gone back and looked at the final standings for each one of these seasons. For the lockout-shortened '98-'99 season, I projected what the team's win total would've been over an 82-game season (based on their winning percentage). What you see here is the AVERAGE win-loss record for the 9th through 15th place teams during this period.
Average 9th place team's record: 41-41
Average 10th place team's record: 37-45
Average 11th place team's record: 34-48
Average 12th place team's record: 31-51
Average 13th place team's record: 27-55
Average 14th place team's record: 24-58
Average 15th place team's record: 16-66
SO! As you can see, teams that finish 13th in the East are NOT contenders--if you go 27-55, YOU ARE NOT A CONTENDER. Teams that finish 12th in the East are NOT contenders--if you go 31-51, YOU ARE NOT A CONTENDER. Teams that finish 11th in the East are NOT contenders--if you go 34-48, YOU ARE NOT A CONTENDER. I suppose one could argue that a 37-45 team is a contender--in many instances, the tenth place team came pretty close to making the playoffs (41-41 in '97-'98, 39-43 in '96-'97, 39-43 again in '95-'96--these years were obviously the hey day period for the Eastern Conference).
The point here is that only ten teams in the East can expect to "contend for a playoff spot" next year or any year. Below is one man's guess at what the Eastern Conference standings might look like next season--and I have included the average win-loss total next to those teams who fail to make the playoffs (just to drive home my point):
1 Nets
2 Hornets
3 Pistons
4 Celtics
5 Bucks
6 Magic
7 76ers
8 Heat
-----
9 Raptors 41-41
10 Pacers 37-45
11 Hawks 34-48
12 Bulls 31-51
13 Knicks 27-55
14 Wizards 24-58
15 Cavs 16-66
NOW! Feel free to mix and match who finishes where--but the bottom line here is that A 27-55 TEAM IS NOT A PLAYOFF CONTENDER! If you finish 13th in the East, YOU ARE GOING TO FINISH ABOUT 27-55! The most wins that the 13th best team in the East ever won was in '97-'98, when the #13 team somehow managed to go 36-46. The next-best win-loss total during this 7-year period for a #13 team? 30-52.
Go ahead, people--make your predictions, tell us how you think the East will shape up next season. Rank the teams 1-15. But make sure you put the above average win-loss totals next to those teams.
Wiz fans! YOUR TEAM WILL NOT CONTEND FOR A PLAYOFF SPOT NEXT SEASON!
Knicks fans! YOUR TEAM WILL NOT CONTEND FOR A PLAYOFF SPOT NEXT SEASON!
Bulls fans! YOUR TEAM WILL NOT CONTEND FOR A PLAYOFF SPOT NEXT SEASON!
Hawks fans! YOUR TEAM WILL NOT CONTEND FOR A PLAYOFF SPOT NEXT SEASON!
And, fans of the Wiz, Knicks, Bulls, and Hawks--if you DO think your team will "contend" next season, well, you're going to have to tell us which of the ten teams that figure to be better than you (i.e., the ten teams that I have ranked ahead of you in my projected Eastern Conference standings) will be WORSE than you! If you cannot name AT LEAST FIVE TEAMS who will be WORSE than you next season, YOUR TEAM WILL NOT BE CONTEND FOR A PLAYOFF SPOT! Period!
So there!