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Player Salary Geek
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Discussion Starter · #1 ·
The more I think about it, the more convinced I am of the folly of the Blazers trying to get under the cap at all costs in 2005.

First of all, there's the issue of the road to be taken. As I outlined extensively here in the Quick Chat thread, if Portland wants max money to offer to the FA of their choice in 2005, that means going Cold Turkey in terms of significant FA signings between now and then. It could also mean going Cold Turkey to any significant trade - since it would have to be a trade that brings back an expiring contract.

So, take this year's team. Subtract Wallace, Person and Miles. Add 2 rookies. That's the Blazer team next year - not awe-inspiring to say the least. And that's the road to be travelled over the next 16 months.


But secondly, there's the issue of the destination. What type of player do the Blazers hope to get as a result of this "sacrifice"? An All-Star player?

The reality is that All-Stars are rarely garnered through free agency. Take this year's crop of 24 All-Stars. 11 were drafted by their current team. 3 were traded on or near draft day (before ever playing a professional game). 8 were obtained by a trade. 1 was obtained through a sign-and-trade. And 1 was signed as an UFA.

What this says to me is that a strategy of trying to get an All-Star player by means of a FA signing is extremely risky.

I'm not saying that the Blazers can trade for All-Stars. But maybe they can use the expiring contracts of players like Stoudamire, Person or Davis to obtain young players (plus filler, of course) who might BECOME All-Stars. That's what Charlotte did with Magloire and Indiana did with O'Neal.

Or, use their contracts to obtain draft picks. I'd even say the odds of using a mid-level or lower draft pick to get an All-Star is better than trying to sign one as a FA. Kirilenko, Stojakovic, Redd, Artest - all examples of this.

But trying to use contracts to get nothing but cap space is nothing but trying to play free agent roulette, IMO. I'd rather see the Blazers let other teams play that game and use their resources to try to get an All-Star level player by means of trade or draft.
 

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Player Salary Geek
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Discussion Starter · #2 ·
I'm bumping this thread to add my post-trade thoughts.

I'm glad that the Blazers made the decision to use the expiring contracts of Sheed and Person to get some talent back instead of simply letting them walk away for nothing. Yes, part of me still wishes that the Blazers and Wallace could have worked out an extension. But that's history.

This move gives me hope that the Blazers might actually give up on this idea of "we're going to get under the cap in 2005 no matter what." Now that they have SAR to go with Randolph, I hope they build around them - if they prove that they can play together - or that they trade one of them for a star who can play with the other.

Maybe this move proves that the team plans on not only retaining some - if not all - of their talented players whose contracts expire in 2005. Maybe all this talk about getting below the cap in 2005 was a smoke screen.

We'll see, won't we? But it's still my hope that the Blazers use the expiring contracts of Davis and Stoudamire as trade bait. Get back some young players or draft picks in addition to longer yet reasonable contracts. Something like what they just did in the trade with Atlanta. Take advantage of the fact that there are teams that want to play free agent roulette in 2005.

In short, this trade gives me some hope.
 

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Discussion Starter · #3 ·
Oh, I forgot to mention this:

I sent a LONG e-mail to the Blazers a week ago outlining my perspective on the folly of the this idea that the Blazers could cut all their players and get lots of cap space in 2005 and end up with a better team. Mostly, it simply restated what I've posted on this board time over the last couple of weeks.

In other words, I encouraged them NOT to let the contracts of Wallace and Person simply expire.

Then the trade happens. Coincidence??????

BTW, I got an e-mail response yesterday. Part of it was a "cut and paste" portion outlining the trade and why the Blazers made it. But here's the response I got:

Thanks so much for taking the time to email the Blazers.com Feedback mailbox with your comments about the trade we made sending Rasheed Wallace and Wesley Person to Atlanta for Shareef Abdur-Rahim, Theo Ratliff and Dan Dickau, as well as the extensive thought you've put into this entire program.

Blazers President, Steve Patterson had this to say at the press conference,

"Since John Nash and I came here last summer, we pursued a plan that would take character into account with talent, create cap flexibility while continuing to put a competitive team on the court."

"The community has been very clear in their message and we are listening. As we pledged to our fans and customers back in August, we want to build a competitive team on the court and one in which the fans can also be proud of off the court. Today's trade is a reflection of that commitment," said Patterson.

Active in the community, Abdur-Rahim was named one of the Sporting News Good Guys in sports and helped raise funds for September 11 victims by creating "Rebound America" which raised a total of $212,275, including $69,600 from Abdur-Rahim. In November 2001, he received the NBA's Community Assist Award.

This trades helps the franchise in many ways," said Patterson. "We get a younger core of players and can remain competitive in both the Western Conference and the league. Another factor in the deal is that we are also acquiring three players of good character. This trade also gives the franchise salary cap flexibility."

We are excited about what the second half of the season holds for our fans, our city of Portland and our franchise. We hope you'll be with us to share in this excitement.

Thanks again for writing,

Jennifer
www.blazers.com
 

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Schilster Supreme
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I was thinking about it this way.

This trade screams of flexibilty. It gives Portland some very talented players and the luxury of the remainder of this season and then next season to evaluate which peieces work best. IMO the Blazers should Offer Miles a qualifying offer, if he is offered a better deal elswhere match it if it is in the MLE range, which is th absolute Max I can imagine he will get. If the QO is accepted portland has Miles, SAR, Ratliff, Davis, Stoudamire, Qyntel (If they don't pick up his 4th year) and ZBO all up for FA the summer of 2005. They could then mix and match. If they think Zach is limited the can try and work a S&T relying on SAR at the 4 and Miles at the 3. If Miles doesn't Pan out they can reatin SAR at the 3. If SAR doesn't work then they can keep Zach and Darius. Add in 2 players coming off rookie seasons and they have a lot of options on what they can do.

They would have so much flexibility on what they can do that summer, and they may even have the money left over to make a run at a $9-$10 mil player.
 

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Discussion Starter · #5 ·
Schilly -

I agree. At least give the pieces that they've obtained time to prove themselves, rather than simply looking at them as "expiring contracts".

I'll be watching very carefully at what the Blazers do with Miles. I could very easily see him accept the qualifying offer - which in his case will be larger than the MLE - and become an UFA in 2005 along with SAR, Ratliff, Davis and Stoudamire. I just don't think the Blazers would offer him a long-term deal that was LARGER than the qualifying offer of $5.4 million. They might do a multi-year deal for less than the qualifying offer, but in the name of staying flexible, I can't see them making a multi-year offer for more than that.

He could conceivably sign an offer sheet with another team for an amount less than the qualifying offer (for more years) - in which case the Blazers should swoop in and match it. If, however, a team like Utah offered him a multi-year deal starting at $6 million, the Blazers might let him walk. I wouldn't like it emotionally, but I could certainly understand it.

As long as they communicate with Darius really well, such a move wouldn't necessarily insult him or make him feel unwanted - I think he's got the emotional maturity to see it as a challenge and not as an insult.
 

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I have felt this way for some time.

As I posted weeks ago, unless Tracy McGrady is the FA the Blazers have a shot a signing if they had MAX cap room in 2005, the idea of rebuilding by renouncing all our FAs is a bad one.

I hope the Blazer's don't let Miles AND SAR AND Damon AND Dale AND Theo all walk, just so we can overpay players like Andre Miller, Corey Maggette or Gilbert Arenas.
 

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Schilster Supreme
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One thing to look at is which teams will be under the cap this summer.

As far as I know most of those teasm are already set at the 3.

Denver-Carmelo
Utah-Kirilenko
Phoenix-Marion
Golden State?-Dunleavy JR.
Clippers?-Q Rich/Maggette

Anyone I am missing?

I find it highly unlikely Darius gets much $ elsewhere.
 

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Originally posted by <b>So Cal Blazer Fan</b>!


So, take this year's team. Subtract Wallace, Person and Miles. Add 2 rookies. That's the Blazer team next year - not awe-inspiring to say the least. And that's the road to be travelled over the next 16 months.
Why get rid of Miles?:confused:
 

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Player Salary Geek
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Discussion Starter · #9 ·
Re: Re: Free Agent Roulette

Originally posted by <b>MAS RipCity</b>!


Why get rid of Miles?:confused:
Exactly!!!

The point of my post is that if the Blazers want enough cap room to offer some FA max money in 2005, they would HAVE to let Miles go. I'm saying they shouldn't go down that road.
 

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Discussion Starter · #10 ·
Originally posted by <b>Schilly</b>!
One thing to look at is which teams will be under the cap this summer.

As far as I know most of those teasm are already set at the 3.

Denver-Carmelo
Utah-Kirilenko
Phoenix-Marion
Golden State?-Dunleavy JR.
Clippers?-Q Rich/Maggette

Anyone I am missing?

I find it highly unlikely Darius gets much $ elsewhere.
Well, Atlanta looks to have cap room now....;)

They MIGHT make a run at Darius, but I doubt it.
 

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Schilster Supreme
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Hey So Cal do you have a list of Teams that will be under the cap this offseason?

I think I forgot Atlanta.
 

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Schilster Supreme
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Looking down that List I see very littel in the way of $ available to spend and of the teams that could offer more than MLE money they seem set at the SF except for Charlotte, and maybe Cleveland, but I doubt he returns to the Cavs.

I think Mile's Options are very limited.
 

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Originally posted by <b>Schilly</b>!
Looking down that List I see very littel in the way of $ available to spend and of the teams that could offer more than MLE money they seem set at the SF except for Charlotte, and maybe Cleveland, but I doubt he returns to the Cavs.

I think Mile's Options are very limited.
You only need two teams who want a player to create demand and a possible bidding war.

I think the Cavs would find it amusing to get Miles back, but I asume Paxson will be smart and hold that cap space until he can make a play for a good, young PG (Gee, wouldn't Andre Miller be a great fit on that team? :laugh:), or a quality, young Big to take over for Z.

Atlanta is in desperate need of talent, and Miles is a popular player. He could be a consolation prize for them this summer.

Miles was very popular in Los Angeles. The Clippers might consider making him an offer if they think they will be outbid for their RFA's, or are giving up on any of them (Dooling, Jaric & Richardson).

How about Charlotte? Might they make an offer?

I wouldn't say Mile's options are "Very" limited. We shall see.
 
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