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Dayton


vs

VCU


Records: Dayton (10-4, 1-1 away) / VCU (12-3, 8-1 home)
Game time: 7PM EST
TV: WHIO TV
Radio: 95.7 FM 1290 AM / 107.3 FM
Website: Dayton / VCU
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Benson and Oliver will prove to be a match-up problem I think. Juvonte Reddic is better than either in my opinion but he doesn't have much help up front and he tends to check out mentally if he doesn't get touches. That's a potential problem area for us.

Dillard is obviously one of the premier guards in the conference and we'll have to contain him. It will be interesting to see how he matches up with our guards who are all pretty impressive defensively. If he's allowed space to operate it could be really bad news for VCU. We can't allow him to use dribble penetration to break down our defense. Vee Sanford is another X-factor. If he's shooting well from outside that makes them tough to stop.

I like that we have this one at home. We're pretty good there, but this is a game Dayton squad. We'll need to be dialed in and playing as hard as ever to ensure a victory. Mailing it in won't work here. This isn't East Tennessee State, Longwood, or Fairleigh Dickinson. It should be a close, entertaining contest.
 

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At UD Arena I think Dayton takes this game, but since it is played on the road, I think VCU wins by 8-12 points.
 

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Dayton has been really good against the press all year. Granted, they haven't seen anything like VCU's defense, but they have enough ball handlers to break it consistently and the finishers to turn a broken press into very quick buckets. It's just a matter of making the right decisions with the ball. We shall see.

Defensively, Dayton has to overplay on the three point shot. Let Reddic go for 25 if his game is on, that alone won't beat them. Just can't let VCU get hot from outside, because they can separate from the opponent with a quick 15-2 run like no other team in this league.

I expect a loss. I think VCU is a better head to head matchup for UD than Butler, Dayton loves fast paced games, I just think going into VCU is too tall of a task this year, in this spot. I imagine the place will be bouncing through the ceiling for their first A10 game.
 

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The atmosphere is going to be bananas. Bananas is good.

Looking forward to this one!

Edit: VCU will have an internet feed for free (as they do for all home games) So those interested can view it.
 

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Should be an interesting matchup. I'm interested to see how we play Dillard. Typically he will get a few plays worth of one defender and then get a fresh one. Briante Weber, Darius Theus and Rob Brandenberg should have their work cut out for them. Gotta keep Sanford under wraps. It should be a great one to introduce most of the A-10 to our arena. It should be bananas.
 

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Dayton has been a better road team under Archie Miller than the previous guy. That is the only glimmer of hope from this Flyer Fan's perspective. The VCU press will certainly get the turnovers it is designed to generate, but when Dayton gets into a flow it certainly has the personnel to make agressive defenses pay.

For me, it all comes down to Dayton's shooting. If Dayton can make open threes and get high quality looks off the press, it will be a tight game. If Dayton shoots under 40% - like we have in every loss - this game could turn into an ass whopping.
 

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I'm not sure there is a more explosive team in the A-10 than VCU this year.

There are teams that are better at a lot of things, but I haven't seen another team blow a game open as suddenly and drastically as VCU has shown it can this year.

Dayton absolutely can hang and knock us off. That's a pretty talented team that Miller's got over there. They're going to have to play a great game and to an extent hope that we're cold from the perimeter to beat us at home though. When the outside shot is going and we're making shots, it's very difficult to get a rhythm going when we have time to set up the press off of made baskets.

Make us miss and have to play transition defense, and it becomes a much more winnable game.
 

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Two things jump out to me when I look at VCU's season box score:

First is Theus and Webber average SIX STEALS PER GAME between them. Holy christ. I don't think I've ever seen such a thing.

Second is they are DEEP. UD is not. They are going to come at us, and particularly Dillard, in waves. We will be spent by the end of the game.

We are going to have to shoot well to stay in this one, and we need VCU to get some first-A10-game jitters or something. I am sure the place will be rocking. Hopefully we can knock the Rams on their heels early. If not, it could get ugly quick. And we are not a team that is likely to make up a large deficit.
 

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VCU leads the country in steals per game and turnover margin.

Here's a mind-blowing stat for you: Briante Weber (1st, 8.7%) and Darius Theus (3rd, 6.7%) are 2 of the top 3 players in the country in steal percentage.

Here's another: Briante Weber and Darius Theus have combined for 91 steals so far this year. That's more than 161 Division 1 teams. Dayton as a team has 81.
 

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We're striping the Stu as part of the inaugural A-10 game celebration. This is how it should look if everyone wears the t-shirts on their seats:



 

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Wow, interesting stuff, Baller. Does steal percentage mean the percentage of possessions they are in the game for that they get a steal? That is amazing.

I mean, I feel like UD has had some decent thieves in the last few years - mainly London Warren comes to mind. But he never even averaged 2 steals per game! These guys must be some hawks.

I have not seen VCU play yet this year. Is Reddic an athlete or a bruiser (please say athlete)?
 

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Wow, interesting stuff, Baller. Does steal percentage mean the percentage of possessions they are in the game for that they get a steal? That is amazing.
Yes sir. That's correct.

I mean, I feel like UD has had some decent thieves in the last few years - mainly London Warren comes to mind. But he never even averaged 2 steals per game! These guys must be some hawks.

I have not seen VCU play yet this year. Is Reddic an athlete or a bruiser (please say athlete)?
These guys are nuts. You'll think they are crazy watching them on TV. They look like deranged lunatics the way they hound the ball...and I mean that as a compliment. You'll understand when you see it. They are tremendous on the ball.

Reddic is more of an athlete. He's bulked up quite a bit and can bang with the best (he put up 16 and 13 against Mason Plumlee earlier this year), but he's got that smooth mid-range jumper and has a nice vertical leap. I wouldn't say he's a bruiser though. He's kind of evolved into being a more physical post player this year. He's 6'9, 240. He can be frustrated and made ineffective though. When he's on, he's extremely dangerous.

Several media types have said he's the best forward in the A-10 so far this year. I tend to think that title belongs to Chris Braswell, but it just speaks to the kind of impact Reddic is capable of having. He's the one guy on our squad that I think most has NBA potential.
 

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DB, I can't say you are making me excited for tomorrow, but those are really impressive stats. If those two are successful in wearing down/rendering ineffective Kevin Dillard, UD's chances will be slim.

Reddic sounds like a strong player, but he can take all the midrange jumpers he wants. Much prefer that over watching him push Benson around under the rim. I am hoping Oliver can take advantage of his matchup with whoever guards him when VCU goes to 4 guards. Seems like if we can make VCU play "big," we are better off.

Looking forward to getting the real season started! Should be fun.
 

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Several media types have said he's the best forward in the A-10 so far this year. I tend to think that title belongs to Chris Braswell, but it just speaks to the kind of impact Reddic is capable of having. He's the one guy on our squad that I think most has NBA potential.
Jumping in here, but Braswell hasn't played all that great so far in my view. He's been decent at times, but kind of inconsistent against weak competition. I'd say Marshall at Butler, Conger at Bonnies, Roberts at St Joe, or Oliver at Dayton might be stiffer competition at this point. Gaston at Fordham is a top player when he's healthy. Not to disparage these guys, who are good players, but this kind of shows the lack of depth in the post relative to guards in the A10. I can probably think of 10-15 guards who are more highly regarded than any single post player in the league.

Hopefully for the Niners, Braswell turns it on and shows what he's capable of in conference play, we're going to need him to perform well to make up for the lack of offense elsewhere.
 

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DB, I can't say you are making me excited for tomorrow, but those are really impressive stats. If those two are successful in wearing down/rendering ineffective Kevin Dillard, UD's chances will be slim.

Reddic sounds like a strong player, but he can take all the midrange jumpers he wants. Much prefer that over watching him push Benson around under the rim. I am hoping Oliver can take advantage of his matchup with whoever guards him when VCU goes to 4 guards. Seems like if we can make VCU play "big," we are better off.

Looking forward to getting the real season started! Should be fun.
Yeah playing big is not our strong suit at all. That's a bit of a mismatch for you guys. Oliver and Benson together are tough. It should be interesting to see how that works out.

We'll see. It should be a great game!
 

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Discussion Starter #19
Line is 9.5 in favor of VCU. I would take Dayton and the points on this one.
 

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I could see anything happening, from a narrow Dayton win to a 30 point trouncing at the hands of the Rams. How's that for making no clear prediction?
 
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