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By 2004-2005, I think that we will see a rotation that plays JWill, Rose, Curry, and Chandler an average of 37 mpg each during the regular season, 40 mpg each in the playoffs. I also think that by that time Hassell is a 30 mpg player for a championship-level team, whether that is off the bench or as a starter. This leaves 62 mpg during the regular season and just 50 mpg during the playoffs.
If we paid Crawford and Fizer their qualifying offers, we will be slotted to pay Crawford ($3.5M), Fizer ($4.9M), and Robinson ($6.8M) at a total of $15.2M in 2004-2005. And if either Crawford or Fizer turn out to be really good players, it is very possible that we will have to pay them much more.
Fizer, Crawford, and Robinson all view themselves as starters and are unlikely to be happy sharing 62 mpg in the regular season and just 50 mpg in the playoffs. And these mpg projections are assuming that we do not draft anyone or sign anyone between now and 2004-2005 that plays significant minutes. Also, Bagaric, Hoiberg, Mason, Baxter, etc. do not play significant minutes.
$15.2M is a lot of money for players who do not play very much. Over on the RealGM board, I have argued that trading Crawford, Fizer, and Robinson for Rashard Lewis is not such a crazy idea. We could offer him the 2002-2003 max (probably $10.6M) for seven years without any raises. In 2004-2005, he would save us $4.6M versus keeping Crawford, Fizer, and Robinson.
Relative to how much we would be "overpaying" for Crawford, Fizer, and Robinson, $10.6M for Lewis in 2004-2005 would be a great bargain. If we slot him for 37 mpg in the regular season and 40 mpg in the playoffs, we just need to find a combination of players who could give us 25 mpg in the regular season and just 10 mpg in the playoffs. With the extra $4.6M that should not be difficult. With that extra money and future draft picks, we also should have no trouble finding back-ups in case some of our big minute players become injured.
Later on down the line, at $10.6M per year, Lewis will become more and more of a bargain. In fact, his salary might be low enough that it might pressure JWill, Curry, and Chandler to accept less than the max with max raises if they become less than full-fledged superstars.
Finally, it appeared that Krause was willing to throw about this same kind of money to Tim Thomas, Eddie Jones, and Antonio Davis, and Lewis is much more proven than Thomas and much, much younger than Jones and Davis. What he would be paying Lewis is about what he gave to Mercer and Robinson combined. Call me crazy, but I think Lewis is worth more than Mercer and Robinson combined.
Now it would be great if we could get the Sonics to throw in a center or a #1 pick, but it is very difficult to trade quantity for quality, especially young quality. It would not surprise me if the Sonics rejected this deal.
Lewis would give us the big SF to match up with McGrady, Garnett, Gasol, Van Horne, Bender, etc. We also could slide him over to PF when Curry or Chandler are resting. (In a lot of ways, he reminds me of a younger and more talented Robert Horry.) He already is a slightly above average defender, and as we become less reliant on him on the offensive end (as Curry, JWill, and Chandler mature), I suspect that he could become more and more of a defensive stopper for us. He apparently already has a very good understanding of defensive team play.
One bad thing about this trade though is that we would have nothing else tradewise to ever talk about, since we would have no one left to trade. We would be forced to sit back and watch the team grow rather than talk about moves that we could make to improve the team.
If I believed (1) that Robinson or Crawford was a big upgrade over Hassell or (2) that there is a good chance JWill will not be good enough to merit playing him 37 mpg in a couple of years, or (3) that Crawford is likely to be a lot better than JWill, or (4) that Fizer and Crawford will be happy with limited playing time and will re-sign with contracts that are less than $7M combined for the two of them, then I would think long and hard about this deal. Otherwise, I think it is a good deal for the Bulls.
If we paid Crawford and Fizer their qualifying offers, we will be slotted to pay Crawford ($3.5M), Fizer ($4.9M), and Robinson ($6.8M) at a total of $15.2M in 2004-2005. And if either Crawford or Fizer turn out to be really good players, it is very possible that we will have to pay them much more.
Fizer, Crawford, and Robinson all view themselves as starters and are unlikely to be happy sharing 62 mpg in the regular season and just 50 mpg in the playoffs. And these mpg projections are assuming that we do not draft anyone or sign anyone between now and 2004-2005 that plays significant minutes. Also, Bagaric, Hoiberg, Mason, Baxter, etc. do not play significant minutes.
$15.2M is a lot of money for players who do not play very much. Over on the RealGM board, I have argued that trading Crawford, Fizer, and Robinson for Rashard Lewis is not such a crazy idea. We could offer him the 2002-2003 max (probably $10.6M) for seven years without any raises. In 2004-2005, he would save us $4.6M versus keeping Crawford, Fizer, and Robinson.
Relative to how much we would be "overpaying" for Crawford, Fizer, and Robinson, $10.6M for Lewis in 2004-2005 would be a great bargain. If we slot him for 37 mpg in the regular season and 40 mpg in the playoffs, we just need to find a combination of players who could give us 25 mpg in the regular season and just 10 mpg in the playoffs. With the extra $4.6M that should not be difficult. With that extra money and future draft picks, we also should have no trouble finding back-ups in case some of our big minute players become injured.
Later on down the line, at $10.6M per year, Lewis will become more and more of a bargain. In fact, his salary might be low enough that it might pressure JWill, Curry, and Chandler to accept less than the max with max raises if they become less than full-fledged superstars.
Finally, it appeared that Krause was willing to throw about this same kind of money to Tim Thomas, Eddie Jones, and Antonio Davis, and Lewis is much more proven than Thomas and much, much younger than Jones and Davis. What he would be paying Lewis is about what he gave to Mercer and Robinson combined. Call me crazy, but I think Lewis is worth more than Mercer and Robinson combined.
Now it would be great if we could get the Sonics to throw in a center or a #1 pick, but it is very difficult to trade quantity for quality, especially young quality. It would not surprise me if the Sonics rejected this deal.
Lewis would give us the big SF to match up with McGrady, Garnett, Gasol, Van Horne, Bender, etc. We also could slide him over to PF when Curry or Chandler are resting. (In a lot of ways, he reminds me of a younger and more talented Robert Horry.) He already is a slightly above average defender, and as we become less reliant on him on the offensive end (as Curry, JWill, and Chandler mature), I suspect that he could become more and more of a defensive stopper for us. He apparently already has a very good understanding of defensive team play.
One bad thing about this trade though is that we would have nothing else tradewise to ever talk about, since we would have no one left to trade. We would be forced to sit back and watch the team grow rather than talk about moves that we could make to improve the team.
If I believed (1) that Robinson or Crawford was a big upgrade over Hassell or (2) that there is a good chance JWill will not be good enough to merit playing him 37 mpg in a couple of years, or (3) that Crawford is likely to be a lot better than JWill, or (4) that Fizer and Crawford will be happy with limited playing time and will re-sign with contracts that are less than $7M combined for the two of them, then I would think long and hard about this deal. Otherwise, I think it is a good deal for the Bulls.